Integrated assessment: Missing link in the acid rain debate?

The United States is finding it difficult to develop a coherent policy on acid rain. Despite more than a decade of scientific research and policy initiatives, no clear course of action has been identified. This article argues that what is missing is an integrated assessment of the scientific knowledge that will guide the political process. The role of the integrated assessment is described, and a conceptual framework presented that would accomplish the desired goal. Currently available acid rain assessment models are compared against this framework and found to be less than satisfactory. The article concludes by stressing the opportunity now available to the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program to perform such an assessment and break the logjam.     

Acid rain in Asia

Acid rain has been an issue of great concern in North America and Europe during the past several decades. However, due to the passage of a number of recent regulations, most notably the Clean Air Act in the United States in 1990, there is an emerging perception that the problem in these Western nations is nearing solution. The situation in the developing world, particularly in Asia, is much bleaker. Given the policies of many Asian nations to achieve levels of development comparable with the industrialized world—which necessitate a significant expansion of energy consumption (most derived from indigenous coal reserves)—the potential for the formation of, and damage from, acid deposition in these developing countries is very high. This article delineates and assesses the emissions patterns, meteorology, physical geology, and biological and cultural resources present in various Asian nations. Based on this analysis and the risk factors to acidification, it is concluded that a number of areas in Asia are currently vulnerable to acid rain. These regions include Japan, North and South Korea, southern China, and the mountainous portions of Southeast Asia and southwestern India. Furthermore, with accelerated development (and its attendant increase in energy use and production of emissions of acid deposition precursors) in many nations of Asia, it is likely that other regions will also be affected by acidification in the near future. Based on the results of this overview, it is clear that acid deposition has significant potential to impact the Asian region. However, empirical evidence is urgently needed to confirm this and to provide early warning of increases in the magnitude and spread of acid deposition and its effects throughout this part of the world.     

Surface ozone background in the United States: Canadian and Mexican pollution influences

We use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) with 1° × 1° horizontal resolution to quantify the effects of anthropogenic emissions from Canada, Mexico, and outside North America on daily maximum 8-hour average ozone concentrations in US surface air. Simulations for summer 2001 indicate mean North American and US background concentrations of 26 ± 8 ppb and 30 ± 8 ppb, as obtained by eliminating anthropogenic emissions in North America vs. in the US only. The US background never exceeds 60 ppb in the model. The Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancement averages 3 ± 4 ppb in the US in summer but can be occasionally much higher in downwind regions of the northeast and southwest, peaking at 33 ppb in upstate New York (on a day with 75 ppb total ozone) and 18 ppb in southern California (on a day with 68 ppb total ozone). The model is successful in reproducing the observed variability of ozone in these regions, including the occurrence and magnitude of high-ozone episodes influenced by transboundary pollution. We find that exceedances of the 75 ppb US air quality standard in eastern Michigan, western New York, New Jersey, and southern California are often associated with Canadian and Mexican pollution enhancements in excess of 10 ppb. Sensitivity simulations with 2020 emission projections suggest that Canadian pollution influence in the Northeast US will become comparable in magnitude to that from domestic power plants.     

中国燃煤汞排放清单的初步建立

建立中国分省燃煤汞排放清单,对于研究汞的大气化学转化、迁移和沉降,制定中国汞污染控制对策具有重要意义.本研究按经济部门、燃料类型、燃烧方式和污染控制技术将排放源划分为65种不同类型,根据各类型的煤炭消费量、燃料汞含量和汞排放因子计算汞排放量,最终建立了分省燃煤汞排放清单.用2组原煤汞含量数据资料计算的2000年中国燃煤大气汞排放量分别为161.6 t和219.5 t,其中绝大部分汞排放来自工业、电力和生活消费,分别占46%、35%和14%.Hg⁰、Hg²⁺和Hg_p在中国燃煤大气汞排放中所占的比例分别为16%、61%和23%.中国燃煤汞排放在各地区间有较大差异,排放量较大的省份有河南、山西、河北、辽宁和江苏,均超过10t/a.     

Understanding of regional air pollution over China using CMAQ,part I performance evaluation and seasonal variation

The U.S. EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system with the process analysis tool is applied to China to study the seasonal variations and formation mechanisms of major air pollutants. Simulations show distinct seasonal variations, with higher surface concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀), column mass of carbon monoxide (CO) and NO₂, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in winter and fall than other seasons, and higher 1-h O₃ and troposphere ozone residual (TOR) in spring and summer than other seasons. Higher concentrations of most species occur over the eastern China, where the air pollutant emissions are the highest in China. Compared with surface observations, the simulated SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀ concentrations are underpredicted throughout the year with NMBs of up to ?51.8%, ?32.0%, and ?54.2%, respectively. Such large discrepancies can be attributed to the uncertainties in emissions, simulated meteorology, and deviation of observations based on air pollution index. Max. 1-h O₃ concentrations in Jan. and Jul. at 36-km are overpredicted with NMBs of 12.0% and 19.3% and agree well in Apr. and Oct. Simulated column variables can capture the high concentrations over the eastern China and low values in the central and western China. Underpredictions occur over the northeastern China for column CO in Apr., TOR in Jul., and AODs in both Apr. and Jul.; and overpredictions occur over the eastern China for column CO in Oct., NO₂ in Jan. and Oct., and AODs in Jan. and Oct. The simulations at 12-km show a finer structure in simulated concentrations than that at 36-km over higher polluted areas, but do not always give better performance than 36-km. Surface concentrations are more sensitive to grid resolution than column variables except for column NO₂, with higher sensitivity over mountain and coastal areas than other regions.     

Sources,distribution, and acidity of sulfate–ammonium aerosol in the Arctic in winter–spring

We use GEOS-Chem chemical transport model simulations of sulfate–ammonium aerosol data from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC aircraft campaigns in the North American Arctic in April 2008, together with longer-term data from surface sites, to better understand aerosol sources in the Arctic in winter–spring and the implications for aerosol acidity. Arctic pollution is dominated by transport from mid-latitudes, and we test the relevant ammonia and sulfur dioxide emission inventories in the model by comparison with wet deposition flux data over the source continents. We find that a complicated mix of natural and anthropogenic sources with different vertical signatures is responsible for sulfate concentrations in the Arctic. East Asian pollution influence is weak in winter but becomes important in spring through transport in the free troposphere. European influence is important at all altitudes but never dominant. West Asia (non-Arctic Russia and Kazakhstan) is the largest contributor to Arctic sulfate in surface air in winter, reflecting a southward extension of the Arctic front over that region. Ammonium in Arctic spring mostly originates from anthropogenic sources in East Asia and Europe, with added contribution from boreal fires, resulting in a more neutralized aerosol in the free troposphere than at the surface. The ARCTAS and ARCPAC data indicate a median aerosol neutralization fraction [NH₄⁺]/(2[SO₄^2?] + [NO₃^?]) of 0.5 mol mol^?1 below 2 km and 0.7 mol mol^?1 above. We find that East Asian and European aerosol transported to the Arctic is mostly neutralized, whereas West Asian and North American aerosol is highly acidic. Growth of sulfur emissions in West Asia may be responsible for the observed increase in aerosol acidity at Barrow over the past decade. As global sulfur emissions decline over the next decades, increasing aerosol neutralization in the Arctic is expected, potentially accelerating Arctic warming through indirect radiative forcing and feedbacks.     

A modeling study of coarse particulate matter pollution in Beijing: regional source contributions and control implications for the 2008 Summer Olympics

In the last 10 yr, Beijing has made a great effort to improve its air quality. However, it is still suffering from regional coarse particulate matter (PM10) pollution that could be a challenge to the promise of clean air during the 2008 Olympics. To provide scientific guidance on regional air pollution control, the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) air quality modeling system was used to investigate the contributions of emission sources outside the Beijing area to pollution levels in Beijing. The contributions to the PM10 concentrations in Beijing were assessed for the following sources: power plants, industry, domestic sources, transportation, agriculture, and biomass open burning. In January, it is estimated that on average 22% of the PM10 concentrations can be attributed to outside sources, of which domestic and industrial sources contributed 37 and 31%, respectively. In August, as much as 40% of the PM10 concentrations came from regional sources, of which approximately 41% came from industry and 31% from power plants. However, the synchronous analysis of the hourly concentrations, regional contributions, and wind vectors indicates that in the heaviest pollution periods the local emission sources play a more important role. The implications are that long-term control strategies should be based on regional-scale collaborations, and that emission abatement of local sources may be more effective in lowering the PM10 concentration levels on the heavy pollution days. Better air quality can be attained during the Olympics by placing effective emission controls on the local sources in Beijing and by controlling emissions from industry and power plants in the surrounding regions.     

Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai

Urban development in the mega-cities of Asia has caused detrimental effects on the human health of its inhabitants through air pollution. However, averting these health damages by investing in clean energy and industrial technologies and measures can be expensive. Many cities do not have the capital to make such investments or may prefer to invest that capital elsewhere. In this article, we examine the city of Shanghai, China, and perform an illustrative cost/benefit analysis of air pollution control. Between 1995 and 2020 we expect that Shanghai will continue to grow rapidly. Increased demands for energy will cause increased use of fossil fuels and increased emissions of air pollutants. In this work, we examine emissions of particles smaller than 10 microm in diameter (PM10), which have been associated with inhalation health effects. We hypothesize the establishment of a new technology strategy for coal-fired power generation after 2010 and a new industrial coal-use policy. The health benefits of pollution reduction are compared with the investment costs for the new strategies. The study shows that the benefit-to-cost ratio is in the range of 1-5 for the power-sector initiative and 2-15 for the industrial-sector initiative. Thus, there appear to be considerable net benefits for these strategies, which could be very large depending on the valuation of health effects in China today and in the future. This study therefore provides economic grounds for supporting investments in air pollution control in developing cities like Shanghai.     

Ozone sensitivity analysis with the MM5-CMAQ modeling system for Shanghai

Ozone has become one of the most important air pollution issues around the world. This article applied both O3/(NOy-NOx) and H2O2/HNO3 indicators to analyze the ozone sensitivity in urban and rural areas of Shanghai, with implementation of the MM5-CMAQ modeling system in July, 2007. The meteorological parameters were obtained by using the MM5 model. A regional emission inventory with spatial and temporal allocation based on the statistical data has been developed to provide input emission data to the MM5-CMAQ modeling system. Results showed that the ozone concentrations in Shanghai show clear regional differences. The ozone concentration in rural areas was much higher than that in the urban area. Two indicators showed that ozone was more sensitive to VOCs in urban areas, while it tended to be NOx sensitive in rural areas of Shanghai.