THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

Conservation and Management for Multiple Species: Integrating Field Research and Modeling into Management Decisions

Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves.     

From concept to practice: Implementing cumulative impact assessment in New Zealand

In 1991, provisions for environmental impact assessment in New Zealand were changed significantly with the enactment of the Resource Management Act. Among other provisions, this act requires consideration of cumulative impacts in environmental assessment activities undertaken by planners in newly created regional authorities and district and city councils. The institutional context in which the act is being implemented offers both opportunities and constraints to cumulative impact assessment. A lack of methods for CIA is a recognized problem. However, methods that have been developed for environmental impact assessments can be modified to incorporate second-, third-, and fourth-order impacts as well as to identify the direction and magnitude of additive and synergistic impacts. Layered matrices and combined networks are examples of such methods. While they do not allow for scientific prediction, they do provide the practitioner with the ability to consider the cumulative impacts of decisions. This is crucial in New Zealand, where statutory requirements are ahead of established methodologies.     

Detecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow‐acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short‐lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. Detección del Riesgo de Extinción a partir del Cambio Climático por medio del Criterio de la Lista Roja de la UICNKeith et al.     

Fire Management,Managed Relocation,and Land Conservation Options for Long‐Lived Obligate Seeding Plants under Global Changes in Climate,Urbanization, and Fire Regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long‐lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire‐prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean‐type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long‐lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land‐use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land‐use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored. Manejo de Incendios, Reubicación Administrada y Opciones de Conservación de Suelo para Plantas de Vida Larga con Sembrado Obligado bajo los Cambios Globales en el Clima, la Urbanización y el Régimen de Incendios     

Speciation studies on simulated gastro‐intestinal digests of foodstuffs†

The factors affecting the solubilisation of metals during digestion of food have been examined in a two‐stage model system comprising simulated gastric and intestinal juices. The solubilisation of iron, copper and zinc was examined in digests of white and wholemeal bread. Zinc solubility was principally governed by pH and the simulated digestion had little additional effect. In contrast both iron and copper solubility were markedly affected by digestion of the bread. In the case of copper the enzymolysis increased solubility appreciably at neutral pH. All of the cadmium in a simulated gastric digest of canned crab meat was associated with soluble low molecular weight species of less than 1000 daltons. Cadmium solubility resulted from the acidic conditions of the digest rather than enzymatic solubilisation of binding proteins. Ninety percent of the cadmium in the digest became rebound to the insoluble fraction on adjustment to pH7.0. Subsequent simulated intestinal digestion increased the level of soluble cadmium to 20%; 1.0–1.5% was associated with soluble species in the range 26,000–37,000 daltons and 15.0–20.0% with soluble species of less than 3,000 daltons.     

Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species

Abstract: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.     

The inside story: timeline of events and communication leading up to superstorm sandy from the emergency manager perspective

During impending storms, emergency managers (EMs) are tasked with various decisions and challenges, particularly whether to issue evacuation orders for their area. This study aims to understand the timeline of decisions made and actions taken leading up to Superstorm Sandy’s landfall from the EM perspective. A total of 23 in-depth interviews was conducted in New Jersey and New York. All municipal EMs interviewed first heard about what would become Superstorm Sandy between one and two weeks prior to landfall. From then on, municipal EMs monitored the storm using a variety of sources. The communication and information trail is top-down, starting with higher EM levels (i.e. federal and state) and ending with municipal, or local, EMs. Typically, voluntary evacuation orders were issued on Friday or Saturday, while mandatory evacuation orders began being issued on Saturday, two days before landfall, and continued until the day of landfall. Who issued the various evacuation orders depended on location. In New York City, the Mayor has full control of whether an evacuation is ordered, while in New Jersey, the local EMs generally have the authority. Understanding the timeline of decisions is the first step into fully assessing the EM process during events such as Sandy.     

Validation of a standardized portable fluorescence method for determining trace beryllium in workplace air and wipe samples

Beryllium is widely used in industry for its unique properties; however, occupational exposure to beryllium particles can cause potentially fatal disease. Consequently, exposure limits for beryllium particles in air and action levels on surfaces have been established to reduce exposure risks for workers. Field-portable monitoring methods for beryllium are desired in order to facilitate on-site measurement of beryllium in the workplace, so that immediate action can be taken to protect human health. In this work, a standardized, portable fluorescence method for the determination of trace beryllium in workplace samples, i.e., air filters and dust wipes, was validated through intra- and inter-laboratory testing. The procedure entails extraction of beryllium in 1% ammonium bifluoride (NH(4)HF(2), aqueous), followed by fluorescence measurement of the complex formed between beryllium ion and hydroxybenzoquinoline sulfonate (HBQS). The method detection limit was estimated to be less than 0.02 microg Be per air filter or wipe sample, with a dynamic range up to greater than 10 microg. The overall method accuracy was shown to satisfy the accuracy criterion (A< or = +/-25%) for analytical methods promulgated by the US National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). Interferences from numerous metals tested (in >400-fold excess concentration compared to that of beryllium) were negligible or minimal. The procedure was shown to be effective for the dissolution and quantitative detection of beryllium extracted from refractory beryllium oxide particles. An American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) International voluntary consensus standard based on the methodology has recently been published.