Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Conservation and management applications of the REEF volunteer fish monitoring program

The REEF Fish Survey Project is a volunteer fish monitoring program developed by the Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF). REEF volunteers collect fish distribution and abundance data using a standardized visual method during regular diving and snorkeling activities. Survey data are recorded on preprinted data sheets that are returned to REEF and optically digitized. Data are housed in a publicly accessible database on REEF's Web site (http: //www.reef.org). Since the project's inception in 1993, over 40,000 surveys have been conducted in the coastal waters of North America, tropical western Atlantic, Gulf of California and Hawaii. The Fish Survey Project has been incorporated into existing monitoring programs through partnerships with government agencies, scientists, conservation organizations, and private institutions. REEF's partners benefit from the educational value and increased stewardship resulting from volunteer data collection. Applications of the data include an evaluation of fish/habitat interactions in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, the development of a multi-species trend analysis method to identify sites of management concern, assessment of the current distribution of species, status reports on fish assemblages of marine parks, and the evaluation of no-take zones in the Florida Keys. REEF's collaboration with a variety of partners, combined with the Fish Survey Project's standardized census method and database management system, has resulted in a successful citizen science monitoring program.     

Role of density in aggregation patterns and synchronization of spawning in the hermaphroditic scallop Pecten fumatus

In broadcast spawners, low densities and poor spawning synchronization can reduce fertilization success. In wild populations, individuals in close proximity tend to spawn more synchronously than those further apart, suggesting that low spawner densities may reduce gamete production by lessening the efficacy of pheromone signalling. This study assessed the role of adult density in aggregation patterns and spawning synchronization in a semi-sessile, hermaphroditic scallop, Pecten fumatus. The study was carried out in Great Bay, Tasmania, Australia (147.335 W, 43.220 S) in 2010–2012 by assessing (1) the relationship between density, small-scale aggregation patterns and nearest neighbour distance (NND), (2) the temporal pattern of spawning synchronization, and (3) the effect of site density and conspecific proximity on the probability of spawning. Densities observed in the field ranged from 1.455 to 0.021 ind m^?2. Sites with lower densities had less small-scale aggregation and greater NNDs. Patterns of small-scale aggregation and NNDs in P. fumatus were comparable to those observed in a gonochoristic species. Spawning synchronization was highly variable, ranging between 3.5 and 59.8 % of individuals spawning. P. fumatus was more likely to engage in spawning activity when at greater densities and at closer proximity to conspecifics. This strongly suggests that lower densities in this scallop reduce not only the number of individuals contributing to the production of gametes, but also reduces the synchronization of spawning.     

Normalisation models for accounting for fat content in stable isotope measurements in salmonid muscle tissue

Stable isotope analysis is increasingly used in ecological studies. Because lipid content influences δ¹³C, lipids should be removed from lipid-rich samples before δ¹³C analysis. To account for differences in δ¹³C arising from differences in lipid content, relationships between lipid content, C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C with lipid removal can be used to normalise lipid content to uniform levels. We investigate these relationships for salmonid muscle and evaluate the suitability of previously published normalisation equations for these fish. Salmonids with a wide range of condition (muscle lipid content = 3–35% of dry weight) were considered. There were no consistent relationships between lipid content or C:N ratio and Δδ¹⁵N. There were linear relationships between C:N ratio and lipid content (L = −16.53 + 6.27 × C:N); C:N ratio and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = −1.87 + 0.65 × C:N); and lipid content and Δδ¹³C (Δδ¹³C = 0.01 + 0.10 × L), which should be used on salmonid stable isotope studies.     

Reproductive status of Octopus pallidus, and its relationship to age and size

Age-specific information on individual octopus reproductive development and investment from wild populations has until recently been unobtainable. Using daily-formed increments within stylets (internal shells) the individual ages of 503 wild Octopus pallidus were determined. In addition, detailed reproductive information was collected for each of the aged octopus, along with reproductive data for an additional 925 octopus. All of the octopus were collected from Bass Strait waters in south-eastern Australia from November 2004 to November 2006. This information was used to investigate seasonal trends in reproductive scheduling and investment, fecundity and egg size. Maturation in O. pallidus primarily depends on size with little relationship to age and is highly variable between genders, with females >350 days still maturing in comparison to all males >142 days being mature. Size at 50% maturity for females was approximately 473 g, which is considerably larger than male 100% maturity at <250 g. This indicates that for females at least, maturity does not necessarily come with age. Seasonal scheduling in reproductive investment between genders revealed an optimal spawning period between late summer and early autumn. These results reinforce the view that individual growth and maturity is highly variable in cephalopods.     

Linking biophysical models and public preferences for ecosystem service assessments: a case study for the Southern Rocky Mountains

Through extensive research, ecosystem services have been mapped using both survey-based and biophysical approaches, but comparative mapping of public values and those quantified using models has been lacking. In this paper, we mapped hot and cold spots for perceived and modeled ecosystem services by synthesizing results from a social-values mapping study of residents living near the Pike–San Isabel National Forest (PSI), located in the Southern Rocky Mountains, with corresponding biophysically modeled ecosystem services. Social-value maps for the PSI were developed using the Social Values for Ecosystem Services tool, providing statistically modeled continuous value surfaces for 12 value types, including aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values. Biophysically modeled maps of carbon sequestration and storage, scenic viewsheds, sediment regulation, and water yield were generated using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services tool. Hotspots for both perceived and modeled services were disproportionately located within the PSI’s wilderness areas. Additionally, we used regression analysis to evaluate spatial relationships between perceived biodiversity and cultural ecosystem services and corresponding biophysical model outputs. Our goal was to determine whether publicly valued locations for aesthetic, biodiversity, and life-sustaining values relate meaningfully to results from corresponding biophysical ecosystem service models. We found weak relationships between perceived and biophysically modeled services, indicating that public perception of ecosystem service provisioning regions is limited. We believe that biophysical and social approaches to ecosystem service mapping can serve as methodological complements that can advance ecosystem services-based resource management, benefitting resource managers by showing potential locations of synergy or conflict between areas supplying ecosystem services and those valued by the public.     

Identifying important species that amplify or mitigate the interactive effects of human impacts on marine food webs

Some species may have a larger role than others in the transfer of complex effects of multiple human stressors, such as changes in biomass, through marine food webs. We devised a novel approach to identify such species. We constructed annual interaction-effect networks (IENs) of the simulated changes in biomass between species of the southeastern Australian marine system. Each annual IEN was composed of the species linked by either an additive (sum of the individual stressor response), synergistic (lower biomass compared with additive effects), or antagonistic (greater biomass compared with additive effects) response to the interaction effect of ocean warming, ocean acidification, and fisheries. Structurally, over the simulation period, the number of species and links in the synergistic IENs increased and the network structure became more stable. The stability of the antagonistic IENs decreased and became more vulnerable to the loss of species. In contrast, there was no change in the structural attributes of species linked by an additive response. Using indices common in food-web and network theory, we identified the species in each IEN for which a change in biomass from stressor effects would disproportionately affect the biomass of other species via direct and indirect local, intermediate, and global predator–prey feeding interactions. Knowing the species that transfer the most synergistic or antagonistic responses in a food-web may inform conservation under increasing multiple-stressor impacts.     

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals’ “removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened.” We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species’ range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria—redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)—that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.     

The effects of cage-diving activities on the fine-scale swimming behaviour and space use of white sharks

Wildlife tourism has become increasingly popular and is one of the fastest growing sectors of the tourism industry. A radio-acoustic positioning system was deployed to monitor the fine-scale movements of 21 white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) and investigate the effects of shark cage-diving activities on their swimming behaviour and space use. This study contributes towards improving our understanding of the complex relationship between wildlife tourism and its effects on sharks, and assesses how tourism targeting sharks affects behaviour at a finer spatial scale than previously investigated. Our study demonstrated that shark cage-diving operators (SCDO) influenced the fine-scale three-dimensional spatial distribution and the rate of movement of white sharks at the Neptune Islands. White sharks stayed more than 30 m away from the SCDO on 21 % of the days detected, but spent a significant amount of time in close proximity to the SCDO on the remaining days. Individual variation was detected, with some sharks behaviourally responding to SCDO more than others. The degree of variation between individual sharks and the different levels of interaction (e.g. presence, proximity to SCDO, and consumption of tethered bait) highlights the complexity of the relationships between SCDO and the effects on sharks. To improve our understanding of these relationships, future monitoring of shark cage-diving operations requires proximity to SCDO to be recorded in addition to the presence within the area. Further work is needed to assess whether the observed behavioural changes would affect individual fitness and ultimately population viability, which are critical information to unambiguously assess the potential impacts of wildlife tourism targeting sharks.     

Simulation of wind-driven dispersion of fire pollutants in a street canyon using FDS

Air quality in urban areas attracts great attention due to increasing pollutant emissions and their negative effects on human health and environment. Numerous studies, such as those by Mouilleau and Champassith (J Loss Prevent Proc 22(3): 316–323, 2009), Xie et al. (J Hydrodyn 21(1): 108–117, 2009), and Yassin (Environ Sci Pollut Res 20(6): 3975–3988, 2013) focus on the air pollutant dispersion with no buoyancy effect or weak buoyancy effect. A few studies, such as those by Hu et al. (J Hazard Mater 166(1): 394–406, 2009; J Hazard Mater 192(3): 940–948, 2011; J Civ Eng Manag (2013)) focus on the fire-induced dispersion of pollutants with heat buoyancy release rate in the range from 0.5 to 20 MW. However, the air pollution source might very often be concentrated and intensive, as a consequence of the hazardous materials fire. Namely, transportation of fuel through urban areas occurs regularly, because it is often impossible to find alternative supply routes. It is accompanied with the risk of fire accident occurrences. Accident prevention strategies require analysis of the worst scenarios in which fire products jeopardize the exposed population and environment. The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of wind flow on air pollution and human vulnerability to fire products in a street canyon. For simulation of the gasoline tanker truck fire as a result of a multivehicle accident, computational fluid dynamics large eddy simulation method has been used. Numerical results show that the fire products flow vertically upward, without touching the walls of the buildings in the absence of wind. However, when the wind velocity reaches the critical value, the products touch the walls of the buildings on both sides of the street canyon. The concentrations of carbon monoxide and soot decrease, whereas carbon dioxide concentration increases with the rise of height above the street canyon ground level. The longitudinal concentration of the pollutants inside the street increases with the rise of the wind velocity at the roof level of the street canyon.