Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment

Studies of future management and policy options based on different assumptions provide a mechanism to examine possible outcomes and especially their likely benefits and consequences. The San Pedro River in Arizona and Sonora, Mexico is an area that has undergone rapid changes in land use and cover, and subsequently is facing keen environmental crises related to water resources. It is the location of a number of studies that have dealt with change analysis, watershed condition, and most recently, alternative futures analysis. The previous work has dealt primarily with resources of habitat, visual quality, and groundwater related to urban development patterns and preferences. In the present study, previously defined future scenarios, in the form of land-use/land-cover grids, were examined relative to their impact on surface-water conditions (e.g., surface runoff and sediment yield). These hydrological outputs were estimated for the baseline year of 2000 and predicted twenty years in the future as a demonstration of how new geographic information system-based hydrologic modeling tools can be used to evaluate the spatial impacts of urban growth patterns on surface-water hydrology.     

Analysis and prediction of ecological and ecosystem dynamics with response structure models

A method of directly using data concerning species' responses to various combinations of levels of environmental factors is outlined. Examples of its utilization to analyze (and predict) the dynamics of the ecological processes of population growth, interspecific competition, and predation are given for simple systems; a simulation is presented wherein all of these processes interact within a simple ecosystem. A technique of summarizing the pattern and detail of variation of levels of combination of important environmental factors is also introduced. Together these methods permit application of real world information about the components of the biological community and the environment toward the modeling of ecosystems and the making of predictions concerning them to whatever degree of accuracy which may be useful.There are several major advantages of this approach: (1) It makes maximum use of real world data; the limits of its precision are determined only by the adequacy of the data available (hypothetical values also may be used where real data are unavailable and/or where such hypothetical values may be useful in model and theory development). (2) It is powerful (and applicable to the dynamics of diverse kinds of systems), mathematically very simple, and has important advantages in that non-linearities, thresholds, etc. are automatically and accurately taken into account. (3) It can be expressed numerically or graphically, and therefore is especially helpful in permitting visualization of ecological processes and the results of their action.     

Plant invasions, generalist herbivores, and novel defense weapons

One commonly accepted mechanism for biological invasions is that species, after introduction to a new region, leave behind their natural enemies and therefore increase in distribution and abundance. However, which enemies are escaped remains unclear. Escape from specialist invertebrate herbivores has been examined in detail, but despite the profound effects of generalist herbivores in natural communities their potential to control invasive species is poorly understood. We carried out parallel laboratory feeding bioassays with generalist invertebrate herbivores from the native (Europe) and from the introduced (North America) range using native and nonnative tetraploid populations of the invasive spotted knapweed, Centaurea stoebe. We found that the growth of North American generalist herbivores was far lower when feeding on C. stoebe than the growth of European generalists. In contrast, North American and European generalists grew equally well on European and North American tetraploid C. stoebe plants, lending no support for an evolutionary change in resistance of North American tetraploid C. stoebe populations against generalist herbivores. These results suggest that biogeographical differences in the response of generalist herbivores to novel plant species have the potential to affect plant invasions.     

Assessing Calibration Uncertainty and Automation for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Agricultural Areas Using METRIC

Agricultural irrigation accounts for a large fraction of the total water use in the western United States. The Mapping Evapotranspiration at high Resolution with Internalized Calibration (METRIC) remote sensing energy balance model is being used to estimate historical agricultural water use in western Nevada to evaluate basin‐wide water budgets. Each METRIC evapotranspiration (ET) estimate must be calibrated by a trained user, which requires some iterative time investment and results in variation in ET estimates between users. An automated calibration algorithm for the METRIC model was designed to generate ET estimates comparable to those from trained users by mimicking the manual calibration process. Automated calibration allows for rapid generation of METRIC ET estimates with minimal manual intervention, as well as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the model. The variation in ET estimates generated by the automated calibration algorithm was found to be similar to the variation in manual ET estimates. Results indicate that uncertainty was highest for fields with low ET levels and lowest for fields with high ET levels, with a seasonal mean uncertainty of approximately 5% for all fields. In addition, in a blind comparison, automated daily and seasonal ET estimates compared well with flux tower measurement ET data at multiple sites. Automated methods can generate first‐order ET estimates that are similar to time intensive manual efforts with less time investment.     

Neuropsychiatric aspects of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: considerations in the prenatal setting

Most major neuropsychiatric outcomes of concern to families are not detectable by prenatal ultrasound. The introduction of genome-wide chromosomal microarray analysis to prenatal clinical diagnostic testing has increased the detection of pathogenic 22q11.2 deletions, which cause the most common genomic disorder. The recent addition of this and other microdeletions to non-invasive prenatal screening methods using cell-free fetal DNA has further propelled interest in outcomes. Conditions associated with 22q11.2 deletions include intellect ranging from intellectual disability to average, schizophrenia and other treatable psychiatric conditions, epilepsy, and early-onset Parkinson's disease. However, there is currently no way to predict how severe the lifetime expression will be. Available evidence suggests no major role in these neuropsychiatric outcomes for the congenital cardiac or most other structural anomalies that may be detectable on ultrasound. This article provides an outline of the lifetime neuropsychiatric phenotype of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome that will be useful to clinicians involved in prenatal diagnosis and related genetic counselling. The focus is on information that will be most relevant to two common situations: detection of a 22q11.2 deletion in a fetus or newborn, and new diagnosis of 22q11.2 deletion syndrome in a parent without a previous molecular diagnosis. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing alternative land-use scenarios to facilitate natural resource management across jurisdictional boundaries

Scenario planning is an effective approach for examining possible futures by exploring the implications and consequences of different policy responses to landscape stressors. We present here a case study that explores plausible futures of urban growth in Southern Nevada, USA that illustrates how scenario analysis can be used to inform region-wide resource management by spatially modeling drivers of change, resource impacts, and potential policy responses. Using a suite of energy, water and biodiversity impact models, we assess the outcomes of the various futures on priority resources, resulting in a clear basis of comparison between alternative policies and their potential outcomes. This case study demonstrates the utility of scenario modeling for natural resource management by exploring crucial policy decisions that might be made in the near-term that could have lasting and sometimes conflicting influences on regional resources over the long term.     

Cat ownership and Proximity to Significant Ecological Areas Influence Attitudes Towards Cat Impacts and Management Practices

Environmental Management - Cat ownership is increasing globally, representing a growing threat to urban wildlife. Although some cities have policies and strategies for managing owned cats, the...     

Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin,Nevada1

Carroll, Rosemary W.H., Greg Pohll, David McGraw, Chris Garner, Anna Knust, Doug Boyle, Tim Minor, Scott Bassett, and Karl Pohlmann, 2010. Mason Valley Groundwater Model: Linking Surface Water and Groundwater in the Walker River Basin, Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):554-573. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00434.x Abstract: An integrated surface water and groundwater model of Mason Valley, Nevada is constructed to replicate the movement of water throughout the different components of the demand side of water resources in the Walker River system. The Mason Valley groundwater surface water model (MVGSM) couples the river/drain network with agricultural demand areas and the groundwater system using MODFLOW, MODFLOW’s streamflow routing package, as well as a surface water linking algorithm developed for the project. The MVGSM is capable of simulating complex feedback mechanisms between the groundwater and surface water system that is not dependent on linearity among the related variables. The spatial scale captures important hydrologic components while the monthly stress periods allow for seasonal evaluation. A simulation spanning an 11-year record shows the methodology is robust under diverse climatic conditions. The basin-wide modeling approach predicts a river system generally gaining during the summer irrigation period but losing during winter months and extended periods of drought. River losses to the groundwater system approach 25% of the river’s annual budget. Reducing diversions to hydrologic response units will increase river flows exiting the model domain, but also has the potential to increase losses from the river to groundwater storage.