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Verkerk Pieter J. Lindner Marcus Pérez-Soba Marta Paterson James S. Helming John Verburg Peter H. Kuemmerle Tobias Lotze-Campen Hermann Moiseyev Alexander Müller Daniel Popp Alexander Schulp Catharina J. E. Stürck Julia Tabeau Andrzej Wolfslehner Bernhard van der Zanden Emma H. 《Regional Environmental Change》2018,18(3):817-830
Regional Environmental Change - Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such... 相似文献
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The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management
planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a
rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate
change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched,
quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information,
preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern
forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological
aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly.
In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the
crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches
suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major
challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework
capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information
management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information
on uncertainties throughout the planning process. 相似文献
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Rupert Seidl Filip Aggestam Werner Rammer Kristina Blennow Bernhard Wolfslehner 《Ambio》2016,45(4):430-441
Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0737-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. 相似文献4.
Evaluating sustainable forest management strategies with the Analytic Network Process in a Pressure-State-Response framework 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nowadays forestry faces a complex management situation; the understanding of sustainable forest management (SFM) has gone far beyond the original meaning of sustainable yield of timber. SFM strategies should fulfil ecological, economic and social functions without causing damage to other ecosystems. In this understanding, forest management actions cannot be seen as isolated or mono-causal. In this case study, indicators for SFM are arranged in a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework at forest management unit level. This framework links pressures on the environment caused by human activities with changes of environmental state (condition) parameters. Forest management also responds to these changes by instituting environmental and economic measures to reduce pressures and restore natural resources. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is utilized to evaluate the performance of four management strategies with regard to the PSR framework on SFM. Priorities of indicators and alternatives are modelled with the ANP resulting from the interconnections to other indicators and their respective cumulative importance. The approach allows for more detailed information on the network of human influences and their impacts on forest ecosystems and goes beyond the limitations of flat-dimensioned indicator sets. 相似文献
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