The impact of global change on economic values of water for Public Irrigation Schemes at the São Francisco River Basin in Brazil

Economic values of water for the main Public Irrigation Schemes in the sub-middle region of the São Francisco River Basin, in northeastern Brazil, are determined in this study using an integration of a global agro-economic land and water use (MAgPIE) with a local economic model (Positive Mathematical Programming). As in the latter, the water values depend on the crops grown, and as Brazilian agriculture is strongly influenced by the global market, we used a regionalized version of the global model adapted to the region in order to simulate the crop land use, which is in turn determined by changes in global demand, trade barriers, and climate. The allocation of sugarcane and fruit crops projected with climate change by the global model, showed an impact on the average yields and on the water costs in the main schemes resulting in changes in the water values locally. The economic values for all schemes in the baseline year were higher than the water prices established for agricultural use in the basin. In the future, these water values will be higher in all the schemes. The highest water values currently and in the future were identified in municipalities with a significant proportion of area growing irrigated sugarcane. Being aware of current water values of each user in a baseline year and in a projected future under global climate and socioeconomic changes, decision makers should improve water allocation policies at local scale, in order to avoid conflicts and unsustainable development in the future.     

Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Farm management decision and response to climate variability and change in Côte d’Ivoire

This paper investigates threats to farm management in the northern and central region of Côte d’Ivoire, with a particular focus on climate-related threats. To this end, farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies for climate change have been analyzed. The data were collected from 205 respondents by means of the Focus Groups method, and they were evaluated using a framework analysis. The main reported threats related to the implementation of farming activities are the high cost of inputs and the lack of technical support, which are followed by diseases, insects, and climate variations (scarcity of rains, strong winds, and high temperature). We find that most farmers have a strong perception of changes in climatic conditions. Their perceived impacts on the local environment through evidences like the disappearance of certain farming practices, occurrence of new insects, and the disruption of key time reference periods. Farmers mainly attempt to adapt by adjusting their agricultural calendar, adopting new short-season varieties, and using mixed cropping. We find that the most influential factors for farmers’ adaptation behavior is lack of contact with extension services and the scarcity of rainfall. Our suggestions for future agricultural policies for better adaptation to climate change are to take into account farmers’ perception, to provide suitable climate forecast, and to improve local technical support.     

Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Effect of microbial siderophore DFO-B on Cd accumulation by Thlaspi caerulescens hyperaccumulator in the presence of zeolite

Hyperaccumulators are grown in contaminated soil and water in order that contaminants are taken up and accumulated. Transport of metals from soil to plant is initially dependent on the solubility and mobility of metals in soil solution which is controlled by soil and metal properties and plant physiology. Complexation with organic and inorganic ligands may increase mobility and availability of metals for plants. In this work the influence of desferrioxamine-B (DFO-B), which naturally is produced in the rhizosphere, and zeolite on Cd accumulation in root and shoot of Thlaspi caerulescens (Cd hyperaccumulator) was investigated. Plants were grown in pots with clean quartz sand, amended with 1% zeolite; treatment solutions included 0, 10, and 100 μM Cd and 70 μM DFO-B. Addition of zeolite to the quartz sand significantly reduced Cd concentration in plant tissues and translocation from root to shoot. On contrary, DFO-B considerably enhanced Cd sorption by roots and translocation to aerial part of plants. Treating the plants with zeolite and DFO-B together at 10 μM Cd resulted in reduction of the bioaccumulation factor but enhancement of Cd translocation from root to shoot at the rate of 13%. In contrast, at 100 μM Cd in the solution both bioaccumulation and translocation factors decreased. Total metal accumulation as a key factor for evaluating the efficiency of phytoremediation was highly influenced by treatments. Presence of zeolite in pots significantly decreased total Cd accumulation by plants, whereas, DFO-B clearly enhanced it.     

Future ocean acidification will be amplified by hypoxia in coastal habitats

Ocean acidification is elicited by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and resulting oceanic uptake of excess CO₂ and might constitute an abiotic stressor powerful enough to alter marine ecosystem structures. For surface waters in gas-exchange equilibrium with the atmosphere, models suggest increases in CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂) from current values of ca. 390 μatm to ca. 700–1,000 μatm by the end of the century. However, in typically unequilibrated coastal hypoxic regions, much higher pCO₂ values can be expected, as heterotrophic degradation of organic material is necessarily related to the production of CO₂ (i.e., dissolved inorganic carbon). Here, we provide data and estimates that, even under current conditions, maximum pCO₂ values of 1,700–3,200 μatm can easily be reached when all oxygen is consumed at salinities between 35 and 20, respectively. Due to the nonlinear nature of the carbonate system, the approximate doubling of seawater pCO₂ in surface waters due to ocean acidification will most strongly affect coastal hypoxic zones as pCO₂ during hypoxia will increase proportionally: we calculate maximum pCO₂ values of ca. 4,500 μatm at a salinity of 20 (T = 10 °C) and ca. 3,400 μatm at a salinity of 35 (T = 10 °C) when all oxygen is consumed. Upwelling processes can bring these CO₂-enriched waters in contact with shallow water ecosystems and may then affect species performance there as well. We conclude that (1) combined stressor experiments (pCO₂ and pO₂) are largely missing at the moment and that (2) coastal ocean acidification experimental designs need to be closely adjusted to carbonate system variability within the specific habitat. In general, the worldwide spread of coastal hypoxic zones also simultaneously is a spread of CO₂-enriched zones. The magnitude of expected changes in pCO₂ in these regions indicates that coastal systems may be more endangered by future global climate change than previously thought.     

Assessing Landscape Condition Relative to Water Resources in the Western United States: A Strategic Approach

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is proposing an ambitious agenda to assess the status of streams and estuaries in a 12-State area of the western United States by the end of 2003. Additionally, EMAP is proposing to access landscape conditions as they relate to stream and estuary conditions across the west. The goal of this landscape project is to develop a landscape model that can be used to identify the relative risks of streams and estuaries to potential declines due to watershed-scale, landscape conditions across the west. To do so, requires an understanding of quantitative relationships between landscape composition and pattern metrics and parameters of stream and estuary conditions. This paper describes a strategic approach for evaluating the degree to which landscape composition and pattern influence stream and estuary condition, and the development and implementation of a spatially-distributed, landscape analysis approach.     

Balancing Conservation and Economic Sustainability: The Future of the Amazon Timber Industry

Logging has been a much maligned feature of frontier development in the Amazon. Most discussions ignore the fact that logging can be part of a renewable, environmentally benign, and broadly equitable economic activity in these remote places. We estimate there to be some 4.5 ± 1.35 billion m³ of commercial timber volume in the Brazilian Amazon today, of which 1.2 billion m³ is currently profitable to harvest, with a total potential stumpage value of $15.4 billion. A successful forest sector in the Brazilian Amazon will integrate timber harvesting on private lands and on unprotected and unsettled government lands with timber concessions on public lands. If a legal, productive, timber industry can be established outside of protected areas, it will deliver environmental benefits in synergy with those provided by the region’s network of protected areas, the latter of which we estimate to have an opportunity cost from lost timber revenues of $2.3 billion over 30 years. Indeed, on all land accessible to harvesting, the timber industry could produce an average of more than 16 million m³ per year over a 30-year harvest cycle—entirely outside of current protected areas—providing $4.8 billion in returns to landowners and generating $1.8 billion in sawnwood sales tax revenue. This level of harvest could be profitably complemented with an additional 10% from logging concessions on National Forests. This advance, however, should be realized only through widespread adoption of reduced impact logging techniques.