Modeling of n-butane ignition, combustion, and preflame oxidation in the 20-l vessel

The objective of the study reported herein is to simulate various physical and chemical phenomena accompanying fuel-rich n-butane–oxygen mixture preparation, ignition, preflame oxidation, and combustion in the standard 20-l explosion vessel, by applying mathematical models. Based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the mixing process and natural convection of the ignition kernel, as well as on the analysis of the detailed reaction mechanism of n-butane oxidation, laminar flame propagation, and self-ignition, possible explanations for the phenomena observed experimentally have been suggested. The results of the study indicate that seemingly inflammable mixtures can become hazardous depending on the mixture preparation procedure and forced ignition timing.     

Risk measures constituting a risk metrics which enables improved decision making: Value-at-Risk

In this work, a novel approach is proposed for expressing the risks of process plants consisting of a large number of scenarios, in the form of a risk metrics of leading indicators to prevent potential high profile industry accidents. The methodology includes: 1) risk estimation of a portfolio by CPQRA (or QRA), 2) monetization of the tangible risks with the inclusion of the lost time of production, 3) estimation of the maximum portfolio loss using Value-at-Risk approach, 4) inclusion of intangible risks using FN-curve and, 5) generation of F$-curve of tangible risks. The proposed methodology can particularly help in understanding the stakes at risk by performing the overall cost-benefit analysis, for identifying the most risky scenarios and identifying critical equipments to enable better risk-informed decision making in order to adopt appropriate risk mitigation measures. This work establishes the groundwork for developing measures for understanding and comparing the large number of risk values derived from QRA studies for large portfolios. It will aid in less subjective decision making as it enables the decision maker to choose the most preferred portfolio option among alternatives. Decisions made with the accurate understanding of the consequences of risks can significantly reduce potential work-related fatalities, property losses and save millions of dollars.     

Safety challenges in view of the upcoming hydrogen economy: An overview

If produced and arranged in the right way with carbon dioxide as a possible but permanently removed by-product, hydrogen as a new, large scale, applicable energy carrier promises significant reductions of carbon dioxide emissions. It is light, non-toxic, and clean burning. In different parts of the world, viz. United States, Japan, and Europe, programs have started some years ago to investigate hazardous properties of hydrogen in more detail and to develop special safety measures where necessary. Recently, in September 2009, the third International Conference on Hydrogen Safety (3rd ICHS) was held at Corsica, France. CFD tools have been adapted to describe hydrogen dispersion and explosion. Field tests have been carried out, an incident databank has been founded, knowledge gaps were defined, and risk analysis methods reviewed. The latter are required for drafting installation guidelines and measures for safe distances in land-use planning and licensing of hydrogen storage locations, pipelines, and re-fuelling stations. Yet some challenges remain. The paper will summarize present results and will address hydrogen related issues where more knowledge is needed to reduce uncertainty and improve the quality of risk control.     

The safety barometer: How safe is my plant today? Is instantaneously measuring safety level utopia or realizable?

During the last decade, serious accidents have continued to occur in the process industry. Apparently the scenarios of various undesired events leading to those accidents are still not sufficiently controlled. The key question is how potentially hazardous situations develop, what processes form the basis for this development, and how to control them? Safety level is not static but depends on many risk factors that change in presence and intensity over location and time. Safety level is dependent not only on technical process parameters that have immediate effects on the ‘frequency’ or probability of catastrophic consequences, but also depends on equipment integrity degradation, operational and management quality, attitudes, and cultural processes which may change over a prolonged time. The time and human interaction aspects make dynamic risk assessment complex. This paper will outline a conceptual approach using in addition to the regular process parameter signals received, also weak and slowly changing signals from various safety indicators, enabling to keep track of the risk factors. In theory this could lead to obtaining an instantaneous safety level ‘measure’ making possible forecast alarming for an imminent event to occur. Such concept could be regarded as a ‘writing’ safety barometer, or barograph. However, there are quite a number of problems to be solved which in the paper will be discussed.     

Bayesian networks make LOPA more effective,QRA more transparent and flexible,and thus safety more definable!

Quantitative risk analysis is in principle an ideal method to map one’s risks, but it has limitations due to the complexity of models, scarcity of data, remaining uncertainties, and above all because effort, cost, and time requirements are heavy. Also, software is not cheap, the calculations are not quite transparent, and the flexibility to look at various scenarios and at preventive and protective options is limited. So, the method is considered as a last resort for determination of risks. Simpler methods such as LOPA that focus on a particular scenario and assessment of protection for a defined initiating event are more popular. LOPA may however not cover the whole range of credible scenarios, and calamitous surprises may emerge.In the past few decades, Artificial Intelligence university groups, such as the Decision Systems Laboratory of the University of Pittsburgh, have developed Bayesian approaches to support decision making in situations where one has to weigh gains and costs versus risks. This paper will describe details of such an approach and will provide some examples of both discrete random variables, such as the probability values in a LOPA, and continuous distributions, which can better reflect the uncertainty in data.     

Distinction between the upper explosion limit and the lower cool flame limit in determination of flammability limit at elevated conditions

Previous research showed that at certain conditions, close to the flammability range exists a regime where cool flame may develop either due to elevated temperature or it may be initiated by an ignition source. Propagation of the cool flame in a closed test vessel may double the initial pressure. Such pressure increase exceeds recommended ignition criteria for explosion limit determination that are based on 5 or 7% of pressure rise leading to inaccurate classification of the oxidation phenomena, i.e. cool flame propagation may be classified as hot flame propagation.Two mixtures were tested: n-butane-oxygen (extensively) and C1–C2–oxygen (in limited range), which represent a typical composition in ethylene oxide production, at elevated conditions at their upper explosion limits. Flame development was analysed by flame emission spectroscopy and the post-oxidation mixture was analysed by gas chromatography (GC) to characterise the oxidation mechanism of the flame. Additionally explosion pressure rise, flame temperature, and maximum rate of pressure rise were measured. In all experiments with the pressure rise ratio below two the low temperature oxidation mechanism assisted the flame propagation.     

Is risk analysis a useful tool for improving process safety?

To improve safety one has to know where risks are. For determining risks, hazards have to be identified and representative accident scenarios defined. This needs effort and technique. Man is quite limited in foresight without having experience and lessons from the past. For knowing the risk of an incidental, undesired event both its severity and probability has to be estimated. Then ways to reduce risk become clear. In a process plant risks are many and it is not possible to remove them all. One has to attribute priorities. Intuitive and qualitative methods can do much, but plant complexity may be large and communication on risk may become difficult without formal methodology. Quantitative risk analysis offers much, but has its weaknesses and drawbacks. The required effort is considerable, specialists are needed, and variability in answers is large. Yet, a model built to go along with the life of an installation and updated periodically may be very useful. This paper presents an overview of the demand, problems encountered, possible remedies, and an outlook on useful improvement and extension of risk analysis methodology, including decision making.     

How to consolidate Trevor’s experience and knowledge? Impossibilities,reflections on possibilities,and call to action

Looking back, significant progress in process safety and the knowledge to achieve a safe level has been made. Professor Kletz with his wise and concise maxims has shown us in many respects the way to go, yet more direction is needed for transfer of this knowledge to new generations. After a brief problem analysis, a sketch is given of various developments in the field of process safety, such as our knowledge on hazardous properties, hazard and risk analysis tools, human aspects, trends and developments in industry, and future perspectives. Subsequently, an analysis is made of the knowledge infrastructure required to maintain and to improve a knowledge base. In particular, scenario identification and modeling is mentioned. To that end the ‘lessons learned’ in the past should be better used. This has proven not to be easy. A way to go is indicated that in the longer term may reap success. However, in the present climate, funds for research are scarce and that for safety research are scant. Research is not only to develop new knowledge but is also of crucial importance to maintain quality academic education and the formation of ‘teacher of teachers’. A recent initiative is reported to bring this problem to the attention of policy makers worldwide.