Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Historical and contemporary indigenous marine conservation strategies in the North Pacific

Strategies to reduce, halt, and reverse global declines in marine biodiversity are needed urgently. We reviewed, coded, and synthesized historical and contemporary marine conservation strategies of the Kitasoo/Xai'xais First Nation in British Columbia, Canada to show how their approaches work. We assessed whether the conservation actions classification system by the Conservation Measures Partnership was able to encompass this nation's conservation approaches. All first-order conservation actions aligned with the Kitasoo/Xai'xais First Nation's historical and contemporary marine conservation actions; hereditary chief management responsibility played a key role. A conservation ethic permeates Kitasoo/Xai'xais culture, and indigenous resource management and conservation existed historically and remains strong despite extreme efforts by colonizers to suppress all indigenous practices. The Kitasoo/Xai'xais's embodiment of conservation actions as part of their worldview, rather than as requiring actions separate from everyday life (the norm in nonindigenous cultures), was missing from the conservation action classification system. The Kitasoo/Xai'xais are one of many indigenous peoples working to revitalize their governance and management authorities. With the Canadian government's declared willingness to work toward reconciliation, there is an opportunity to enable First Nations to lead on marine and other conservation efforts. Global conservation efforts would also benefit from enhanced support for indigenous conservation approaches, including expanding the conservation actions classification to encompass a new category of conservation or sacredness ethic.     

Black Carbon Aerosol at McMurdo Station,Antarctica

ABSTRACT

Aerosol light absorption as black carbon (BC) was measured from November 19, 1995, to February 6, 1996, at a location 0.65 km downwind of the center of McMurdo Station on the Antarctic coast. The results show a bimo-dal frequency distribution of BC concentrations. Approximately 65% of the measurements were found in a mode at a low range of concentrations centered at ~20 ng/m³. These concentrations are higher than those found at other remote Antarctic locations and probably represent contamination from the station. The remaining measurements were in a high-concentration mode (BC ~300 ng/m³), indicating direct impact of local emissions from combustion activities at the station. High values of BC were associated with winds from the direction of the station, and the BC flux showed a clear directionality. Maximum BC concentrations occurred between 7:00 and 11:00 a.m. The "polluted" mode accounted for more than 80% of the BC frequency-weighted impact at this location.     

Light Scattering from Sea-Salt Aerosols at Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) Sites

Abstract

A method is described to estimate light scattering (Bsp) by sea-salt aerosols at coastal locations in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network. Dry mass scattering efficiencies for fine and coarse sea-salt particles were based on previously measured dry sea-salt size distributions. Enhancement of sea-salt particle scattering by hygroscopic growth was based on NaCl water activity data. Sea-salt aerosol mass at the IMPROVE site in the Virgin Islands (VIIS) was estimated from strontium (Sr) concentrations in IMPROVE aerosol samples. Estimated Bsp, including contributions from sea-salt mass based on Sr, agreed well with measured Bsp at the VIIS IMPROVE site. On average, sea salt accounted for 52% of estimated Bsp at this site. Sea-salt aerosol mass cannot be reliably estimated from Sr unless its crustal enrichment factor exceeds 10. Sodium (Na) concentrations are not accurately determined by X-ray fluorescence analysis in IMPROVE samples. It is recommended that Na be measured in the fine and coarse modes by a more appropriate method, such as atomic absorption spectroscopy or ion chromatography, to account for scattering by sea-salt particles at IMPROVE sites where such contributions may be significant.     

Pacific Islanders’ understanding of climate change: Where do they source information and to what extent do they trust it?

Regional Environmental Change - The experience of environmental stress and attitudes towards climate change was explored for 1226 students at the University of the South Pacific, the foremost...     

Refinery evaluation of optical imaging to locate fugitive emissions

Fugitive emissions account for approximately 50% of total hydrocarbon emissions from process plants. Federal and state regulations aiming at controlling these emissions require refineries and petrochemical plants in the United States to implement a Leak Detection and Repair Program (LDAR). The current regulatory work practice, U.S. Environment Protection Agency Method 21, requires designated components to be monitored individually at regular intervals. The annual costs of these LDAR programs in a typical refinery can exceed US$1,000,000. Previous studies have shown that a majority of controllable fugitive emissions come from a very small fraction of components. The Smart LDAR program aims to find cost-effective methods to monitor and reduce emissions from these large leakers. Optical gas imaging has been identified as one such technology that can help achieve this objective. This paper discusses a refinery evaluation of an instrument based on backscatter absorption gas imaging technology. This portable camera allows an operator to scan components more quickly and image gas leaks in real time. During the evaluation, the instrument was able to identify leaking components that were the source of 97% of the total mass emissions from leaks detected. More than 27,000 components were monitored. This was achieved in far less time than it would have taken using Method 21. In addition, the instrument was able to find leaks from components that are not required to be monitored by the current LDAR regulations. The technology principles and the parameters that affect instrument performance are also discussed in the paper.     

PM2.5 source apportionment with organic markers in the Southeastern Aerosol Research and Characterization (SEARCH) study

Positive matrix factorization (PMF) and effective variance (EV) solutions to the chemical mass balance (CMB) were applied to PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) mass and chemically speciated measurements for samples taken from 2008 to 2010 at the Atlanta, Georgia, and Birmingham, Alabama, sites. Commonly measured PM_2.5 mass, elemental, ionic, and thermal carbon fraction concentrations were supplemented with detailed nonpolar organic speciation by thermal desorption-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (TD-GC/MS). Source contribution estimates were calculated for motor vehicle exhaust, biomass burning, cooking, coal-fired power plants, road dust, vegetative detritus, and secondary sulfates and nitrates for Atlanta. Similar sources were found for Birmingham, with the addition of an industrial source and the separation of biomass burning into open burning and residential wood combustion. EV-CMB results based on conventional species were qualitatively similar to those estimated by PMF-CMB. Secondary ammonium sulfate was the largest contributor, accounting for 27–38% of PM_2.5, followed by biomass burning (21–24%) and motor vehicle exhaust (9–24%) at both sites, with 4–6% of PM_2.5 attributed to coal-fired power plants by EV-CMB. Including organic compounds in the EV-CMB reduced the motor vehicle exhaust and biomass burning contributions at both sites, with a 13–23% deficit for PM_2.5 mass. The PMF-CMB solution showed mixing of sources within the derived factors, both with and without the addition of speciated organics, as is often the case with complex source mixtures such as those at these urban-scale sites. The nonpolar TD-GC/MS compounds can be obtained from existing filter samples and are a useful complement to the elements, ions, and carbon fractions. However, they should be supplemented with other methods, such as TD-GC/MS on derivitized samples, to obtain a wider range of polar compounds such as sterols, sugars, and organic acids. The PMF and EV solutions to the CMB equations are complementary to, rather than replacements for, each other, as comparisons of their results reveal uncertainties that are not otherwise evident.

Implications:?Organic markers can be measured on currently acquired PM_2.5 filter samples by thermal methods. These markers can complement element, ion, and carbon fraction measurements from long-term speciation networks. Applying the positive matrix factorization and effective variance solutions for the chemical mass balance equations provides useful information on the accuracy of the source contribution estimates. Nonpolar compounds need to be complemented with polar compounds to better apportion cooking and secondary organic aerosol contributors.