Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

Taxing Meat: Taking Responsibility for One’s Contribution to Antibiotic Resistance

Antibiotic use in animal farming is one of the main drivers of antibiotic resistance both in animals and in humans. In this paper we propose that one feasible and fair way to address this problem is to tax animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics. We argue that such tax is supported both by (a) deontological arguments, which are based on the duty individuals have to compensate society for the antibiotic resistance to which they are contributing through consumption of animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics; and (b) a cost-benefit analysis of taxing such animal products and of using revenue from the tax to fund alternatives to use of antibiotics in animal farming. Finally, we argue that such a tax would be fair because individuals who consume animal products obtained with the use of antibiotics can be held morally responsible, i.e. blameworthy, for their contribution to antibiotic resistance, in spite of the fact that each individual contribution is imperceptible.     

WRF-Chem simulation of East Asian air quality: Sensitivity to temporal and vertical emissions distributions

This study develops fine temporal (seasonal, day-of-week, diurnal) and vertical allocations of anthropogenic emissions for the TRACE-P inventory and evaluates their impacts on the East Asian air quality prediction using WRF-Chem simulations in July 2001 at 30-km grid spacing against available surface measurements from EANET and NEMCC. For NO₂ and SO₂, the diurnal and vertical redistributions of emissions play essential roles, while the day-of-week variation is less important. When all incorporated, WRF-Chem best simulates observations of surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations, while using the default emissions produces the worst result. The sensitivity is especially large over major cities and industrial areas, where surface NO₂ and SO₂ concentrations are reduced by respectively 3–7 and 6–12 ppbv when using the scaled emissions. The incorporation of all the three redistributions of emissions simulates surface O₃ concentrations higher by 4–8 ppbv at night and 2–4 ppbv in daytime over broad areas of northern, eastern and central China. To this sensitivity, the diurnal redistribution contributes more than the other two.     

Distribution,habitat preferences and behaviour of the critically endangered Maltese top-shell <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gibbula nivosa</Emphasis> (Gastropoda: Trochidae)

The Maltese top-shell, Gibbula nivosa Adams 1851, is a critically endangered marine trochid gastropod endemic to the Maltese Islands (central Mediterranean). Previously unrecorded live since 1981, rediscovery of this species in 2006 has enabled the collection of basic biological data for the first time, based on a population in Sliema Creek. The field distribution and habitat preferences of G. nivosa were investigated via stratified random sampling, while aspects of its behaviour were studied through laboratory experiments. Gibbula nivosa occurred primarily in near-homogeneous or homogeneous infralittoral cobble/pebble beds, at an overall density of 17.6 ± 25.0 SD individuals m⁻²; however, large spatial and temporal variations in abundance were recorded. The snails did not exhibit gregarious behaviour and the slightly clumped dispersion pattern noted in the field appeared to result from patchiness of the habitat. Recruitment was observed in post-summer months, which, together with data on shell-size distributions, suggests that G. nivosa spawns in early summer and attains adult size (maximum shell width ~9 mm) in less than 1 year. Gibbula nivosa showed a circadian activity pattern with nocturnal foraging involving indiscriminate ingestion of particles browsed off the substratum; observations on responses to four potential predators suggest that nocturnal activity may have evolved in response to diurnal predation. Historical records of snail occurrence and the present study suggest that population declines of G. nivosa in the past were probably related to habitat alteration as a result of anthropogenic pressure.     

Asian Urban Environment and Climate Change: Preface

The Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (www.ancst.org), in collaboration with Tsinghua University, held a conference on environmental and climate science, air pollution, urban planning and transportation in July 2015, with over 40 Asian experts participating and presentation. This was followed by a meeting with local government and community experts on the practical conclusions of the conference. Of the papers presented at the conference a selection are included in this special issue of Journal of Environmental Science, which also reflects the conclusions of the Paris Climate meeting in Dec 2015, when the major nations of the world agreed about the compelling need to reduce the upward trend of adverse impacts associated with global climate change. Now is the time for urban areas to work out the serious consequences for their populations, but also how they should work together to take action to reduce global warming to benefit their own communities and also the whole planet!     

Towards a multi‐foci approach to workplace aggression: A meta‐analytic review of outcomes from different perpetrators

Using meta‐analysis, we compare three attitudinal outcomes (i.e., job satisfaction, affective commitment, and turnover intent), three behavioral outcomes (i.e., interpersonal deviance, organizational deviance, and work performance), and four health‐related outcomes (i.e., general health, depression, emotional exhaustion, and physical well being) of workplace aggression from three different sources: Supervisors, co‐workers, and outsiders. Results from 66 samples show that supervisor aggression has the strongest adverse effects across the attitudinal and behavioral outcomes. Co‐worker aggression had stronger effects than outsider aggression on the attitudinal and behavioral outcomes, whereas there was no significant difference between supervisor, co‐worker, and outsider aggression for the majority of the health‐related outcomes. These results have implications for how workplace aggression is conceptualized and measured, and we propose new research questions that emphasize a multi‐foci approach. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Colonized beads as inoculum for marine biodegradability assessment: Application to Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate

An innovative biodegradation test system was developed in order to fill the current gap for cost effective and environmentally relevant tools to assess marine biodegradability. Glass beads were colonized by a biofilm in an open flow-through system of seawater with continuous pre-exposure to Linear Alkylbenzene Sulfonate (LAS) (20 μg/L). Thereafter, such colonized beads were added as inoculum in different test systems. [¹⁴C]-LAS (5–100 μg/L) was added and primary and ultimate biodegradation were assessed. The bacterial density collected on the beads (10⁹ bact./mL beads) was ca. 3 orders of magnitude higher than the typical seawater content. The LAS mineralization lag phase duration decreased from 55 to < 1 days and the mineralization extent increased from 53 to 90% as the colonized beads volume increased from 10 to 275 mL. This is the first demonstration of marine bacteria's ability to mineralize LAS. On the opposite, less than 13% LAS was mineralized in seawater only. The colonized beads possibly enhanced the probability to encounter the full degraders' consortium in a low volume of seawater (100 mL).     

The Inhibition of Photochemical Smog

Additional inhibitors for the conversion of NO to NO₂ in C3H6—NO—0₂ irradiated mixtures have been tested at 25°C. These mixtures initially contained 16 mTorr C₃H₆, 8 mTorr NO, 0.012 mTorr NO₂, additive, and enough O₂ to bring the total pressure to 100 Torr. The NO₂ pressure was monitored photometrically. In the absence of additive, the NO₂ pressure first increases with irradiation time reaching a maximum conversion at about 15 minutes. As the irradiation time increases beyond 15 min, the NO₂ pressure drops. Before adding the inhibitors, runs were done with 10 Torr of CO added, and in these runs the conversion was speeded so that the maximum in NO₂ pressure occurred at 10 min. This enhancement in conversion rate is considered to be diagnostic for the presence of HO radicals. Next 10-min irradiations were done with various amounts of hexafluorobenzene (C₆F₆), nitrobenzene (C₆H₅NO₂), or naphtha lene (C₁₀H₈) added. The NO₂ pressure was reduced to one-half its value in the absence of inhibitor with 270 mTorr C₆F₆’, 220 mTorr C₆H₅N0₂, or 4 mTorr C₁₀Hg. The C₁₀H₈ is a very efficient inhibitor, but additions of up to 1 8.5 mTorr C₁₀H₈ did not reduce the N0₂ pressure to zero. Studies of the percent conversion of NO to NO₂ vs. irradiation time were done with either 4.2 mTorr C₁₀H₈ or 40 mTorr 2,6-di-ferf-butyl-4-methylphenol (Ph) added. In the former case the peak conversion was delayed from 15 to 22 min, while in the latter case no delay occurred. However, with the Ph added, there appeared to be some reduction in the maximum value of percent conversion.     

The Inhibition of Photochemical Smog I. Inhibition by Phenol,Benzaldehyde, and Aniline

In urban atmospheres hydrocarbons promote the conversion of NO to NO₂ under the influence of sunlight, ultimately giving rise to photochemical smog. The conversion results from a long chain process with HO radicals as the chain carrier. If this chain could be interrupted by suitable radical traps, the formation of photochemical smog would be inhibited. In this paper we report the results of studies using phenol, benzaldehyde, and aniline as inhibitors. Mixtures containing 16 mTorr C₃H₆, 8 mTorr NO, ～85 Torr 0₂, and the addi tives were irradiated at 25°C. The NO₂ pressure was monitored photometrically. In the absence of additive, the NO2 pressure first increases with irradiation time reaching a maximum conversion corresponding to 70% of the NO at 1 2 minutes. As the radiation time is lengthened, the NO₂ pressure drops. With the additive present, the formation of NO₂ is delayed. The time to reach the maximum percent conversion of NO to N0₂ becomes 20, 22, 31, and 40 minutes respectively, for 13 mTorr C₆H₅OH, 2 mTorr C₆H₅CHO, 8 mTorr C₆H₅CHO, and 4.1 mTorr C₆H₅NH₂ added. The problems and possibilities of adding inhibitors to the atmosphere to control air pollution are discussed.     

Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

The mountain chain of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas in southern Mexico is globally significant for its biodiversity and is one of the most important coffee production areas of Mexico. It provides water for several municipalities and its biosphere reserves are important tourist attractions. Much of the forest cover outside the core protected areas is in fact coffee grown under traditional forest shade. Unless this (agro)forest cover can be sustained, the biodiversity of the Sierra Madre and the environmental services it provides are at risk. We analyzed the threats to livelihoods and environment from climate change through crop suitability modeling based on downscaled climate scenarios for the period 2040 to 2069 (referred to as 2050s) and developed adaptation options through an expert workshop. Significant areas of forest and occasionally coffee are destroyed every year by wildfires, and this problem is bound to increase in a hotter and drier future climate. Widespread landslides and inundations, including on coffee farms, have recently been caused by hurricanes whose intensity is predicted to increase. A hotter climate with more irregular rainfall will be less favorable to the production of quality coffee and lower profitability may compel farmers to abandon shade coffee and expand other land uses of less biodiversity value, probably at the expense of forest. A comprehensive strategy to sustain the biodiversity, ecosystem services and livelihoods of the Sierra Madre in the face of climate change should include the promotion of biodiversity friendly coffee growing and processing practices including complex shade which can offer some hurricane protection and product diversification; payments for forest conservation and restoration from existing government programs complemented by private initiatives; diversification of income sources to mitigate risks associated with unstable environmental conditions and coffee markets; integrated fire management; development of markets that reward sustainable land use practices and forest conservation; crop insurance programs that are accessible to smallholders; and the strengthening of local capacity for adaptive resource management.