Upland disturbance affects headwater stream nutrients and suspended sediments during baseflow and stormflow

Because catchment characteristics determine sediment and nutrient inputs to streams, upland disturbance can affect stream chemistry. Catchments at the Fort Benning Military Installation (near Columbus, Georgia) experience a range of upland disturbance intensities due to spatial variability in the intensity of military training. We used this disturbance gradient to investigate the effects of upland soil and vegetation disturbance on stream chemistry. During baseflow, mean total suspended sediment (TSS) concentration and mean inorganic suspended sediment (ISS) concentration increased with catchment disturbance intensity (TSS: R2= 0.7, p = 0.005, range = 4.0-10.1 mg L(-1); ISS: R2= 0.71, p = 0.004, range = 2.04-7.3 mg L(-1)); dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration (R2= 0.79, p = 0.001, range = 1.5-4.1 mg L(-1)) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration (R2= 0.75, p = 0.008, range = 1.9-6.2 microg L(-1)) decreased with increasing disturbance intensity; and ammonia (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were unrelated to disturbance intensity. The increase in TSS and ISS during storms was positively correlated with disturbance (R2= 0.78 and 0.78, p = 0.01 and 0.01, respectively); mean maximum change in SRP during storms increased with disturbance (r = 0.7, p = 0.04); and mean maximum change in NO3- during storms was marginally correlated with disturbance (r = 0.58, p = 0.06). Soil characteristics were significant predictors of baseflow DOC, SRP, and Ca2+, but were not correlated with suspended sediment fractions, any nitrogen species, or pH. Despite the largely intact riparian zones of these headwater streams, upland soil and vegetation disturbances had clear effects on stream chemistry during baseflow and stormflow conditions.     

Species Distribution Models of Freshwater Stream Fishes in Maryland and Their Implications for Management

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used in conservation planning, but their utility can be improved by assessing the relationships between environmental and species response variables. We constructed SDMs for 30 stream fishes of Maryland, USA, using watershed attributes as environmental variables and presence/absence as species responses. SDMs showed substantial agreement between observed and predicted values for 17 species. Most important variables were natural attributes (e.g., ecoregion, watershed area, latitude/longitude); land cover (e.g., %impervious, %row crop) was important for three species. Focused analyses on four representative species (central stoneroller, creek chub, largemouth bass, and white sucker) showed the probability of presence of each species increased non-linearly with watershed area. For these species, SDMs built to predict absent, low, and high densities were similar to presence/absence predictions but provided probable locations of high densities (e.g., probability of high-density creek chub decreased rapidly with watershed area). We applied SDMs to predict suitability of watersheds within the study area for each species. Maps of suitability and the environmental and species response relationships can help develop better management plans.     

Connecticut statewide sTEP wave evaluation

INTRODUCTION: Selective Traffic Enforcement Programs (sTEPs) are a proven method to change motorists' behavior. Since 1997, the Connecticut DOT's Division of Highway Safety has organized a statewide seat belt enforcement program, with sTEP waves every three or four months. To date, 28 waves have been implemented. METHOD: Pre-wave and post-wave seat belt observation surveys are conducted by both state and municipal police across the state. Survey results, as well as a summary of all enforcement activity during the wave, are submitted for evaluation. RESULTS: Connecticut seat belt use has continued to rise from one wave to the next in a predictable "saw blade" pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The data clearly demonstrate that agencies that have participated in a greater number of waves have experienced the greatest increase in belt use. Belt use has not yet plateaued and additional sTEP enforcement seems indicated. However, evidence from other states suggests that a plateau may occur somewhere in the mid 80% range. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Should this occur, Connecticut will work toward strengthening the round the clock model, emphasizing the importance of aggressive primary enforcement.     

Geoadditive regression modeling of stream biological condition

Indices of biotic integrity have become an established tool to quantify the condition of small non-tidal streams and their watersheds. To investigate the effects of watershed characteristics on stream biological condition, we present a new technique for regressing IBIs on watershed-specific explanatory variables. Since IBIs are typically evaluated on an ordinal scale, our method is based on the proportional odds model for ordinal outcomes. To avoid overfitting, we do not use classical maximum likelihood estimation but a component-wise functional gradient boosting approach. Because component-wise gradient boosting has an intrinsic mechanism for variable selection and model choice, determinants of biotic integrity can be identified. In addition, the method offers a relatively simple way to account for spatial correlation in ecological data. An analysis of the Maryland Biological Streams Survey shows that nonlinear effects of predictor variables on stream condition can be quantified while, in addition, accurate predictions of biological condition at unsurveyed locations are obtained.     

粉尘在巷道中的紊流传递分析

建立的粉尘在巷道中的传递方程是一个二维平流扩散输运方程。在巷道顶底板为吸收壁的条件下，导出了粉尘浓度分布函数。传统的工业沉降室沉降效率公式（横向混合模型）只是论文所列方程的一个特例。降低紊流强度和减小紊流扩散系数和纵向弥散系数均可提高沉降效率     

STORM RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAZED WATERSHEDS IN EASTERN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Rainfall and runoff data from 485 storms during the summers of 1979–84 were evaluated to characterize storm runoff volumes (SF) and peak flows (QP) for 13 small watersheds in the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon and to determine differences among grazing intensities and vegetation types. Storm hydrographs were separated by using watershed-specific baseflow rise rates of 0.002–0.013 cfsm/hr. Median SF and QP were 0.0014 in and 0.43 cfsm, respectively, for all storms. Total storm rainfall (PPT) and initial flow (QI) were important stepwise regression variables in accounting for the variation in SF and peak flow above initial flow (QPI); 30- and 60-mm rainfall intensities and rainfall duration were relatively unimportant. Two classes of vegetation were evaluated: (1) western larch-Douglas-fir (nine watersheds), and (2) other (four watersheds representing fir-spruce, lodgepole pine, mountain meadow, and ponderosa pine). Mean SF and QP did not differ (P=0.05) among vegetation classes but significant differences were apparent in the relation of SF to PPT and QI, and QPI to PPT and QI. As PPT and QI increased, SF and QPI from larch-Douglas-fir watersheds increased at a slower rate than they did from the other watersheds. Four levels of grazing intensity had no effect on storm runoff.     

Using expert knowledge to support Endangered Species Act decision-making for data-deficient species

Many questions relevant to conservation decision-making are characterized by extreme uncertainty due to lack of empirical data and complexity of the underlying ecologic processes, leading to a rapid increase in the use of structured protocols to elicit expert knowledge. Published ecologic applications often employ a modified Delphi method, where experts provide judgments anonymously and mathematical aggregation techniques are used to combine judgments. The Sheffield elicitation framework (SHELF) differs in its behavioral approach to synthesizing individual judgments into a fully specified probability distribution for an unknown quantity. We used the SHELF protocol remotely to assess extinction risk of three subterranean aquatic species that are being considered for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We provided experts an empirical threat assessment for each known locality over a video conference and recorded judgments on the probability of population persistence over four generations with online submission forms and R-shiny apps available through the SHELF package. Despite large uncertainty for all populations, there were key differences between species’ risk of extirpation based on spatial variation in dominant threats, local land use and management practices, and species’ microhabitat. The resulting probability distributions provided decision makers with a full picture of uncertainty that was consistent with the probabilistic nature of risk assessments. Discussion among experts during SHELF's behavioral aggregation stage clearly documented dominant threats (e.g., development, timber harvest, animal agriculture, and cave visitation) and their interactions with local cave geology and species’ habitat. Our virtual implementation of the SHELF protocol demonstrated the flexibility of the approach for conservation applications operating on budgets and time lines that can limit in-person meetings of geographically dispersed experts.     

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk—their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance‐discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers’ risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. El Efecto de la Aversión de Riesgo sobre la Priorización de Proyectos de Conservación     

重力作用下尘粒运动的数值解法

提出了重力作用下尘粒运动的数值解法。依据尘粒的重力、浮力及所受到的阻力推出了尘粒自然沉降时的运动方程。当尘粒的运动在斯托克斯领域内时采用理论公式求解其运动轨迹,当尘粒的运动进入非斯托克斯领域内时,提出了修正斯托克斯公式的方法以达到用理论公式来近似模拟该领域内的尘粒自然沉降运动