Decreased Runoff Response to Precipitation,Little Missouri River Basin,Northern Great Plains,USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976‐2012 compared to 1939‐1975 (n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant (p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface‐water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.     

Warm forming die design,part I: Experimental validation of a novel thermal finite element modeling code

Finite element analysis (FEA) has become an invaluable tool in the design of sheet metal stamping dies and processes. FEA has gained widespread acceptance as the best method of optimizing dies for conventional stamping processes. More recently, FEA has been shown to be an effective method of designing tooling for sheet forming processes. In this work, an FEA based approach is applied to the warm stamping (warm forming) process. This work introduces a new thermal finite element analysis software called PASSAGE®/Forming (PASSAGE) that enables the up-front design of the thermal management of warm forming dies. This thermal finite element analysis software is designed to specifically handle the forming and optimization scenarios related to the heating of a stamping die while minimizing user interface time. In this work, PASSAGE has been applied to a simple block of steel embedded with cartridge heaters to validate the prediction capability of this software under two different heating conditions. The results show that PASSAGE is capable of predicting the actual steady-state temperature distribution within the block with an acceptable level of accuracy while yielding notable information to the user with respect to specifying power requirements. A finite element software package like PASSAGE is a valuable tool that will aid greatly in the implementation of warm forming as a manufacturing process beyond the scope of the laboratory and into production.     

Erosional Consequence of Saltcedar Control

Removal of nonnative riparian trees is accelerating to conserve water and improve habitat for native species. Widespread control of dominant species, however, can lead to unintended erosion. Helicopter herbicide application in 2003 along a 12-km reach of the Rio Puerco, New Mexico, eliminated the target invasive species saltcedar (Tamarix spp.), which dominated the floodplain, as well as the native species sandbar willow (Salix exigua Nuttall), which occurred as a fringe along the channel. Herbicide application initiated a natural experiment testing the importance of riparian vegetation for bank stability along this data-rich river. A flood three years later eroded about 680,000 m³ of sediment, increasing mean channel width of the sprayed reach by 84%. Erosion upstream and downstream from the sprayed reach during this flood was inconsequential. Sand eroded from channel banks was transported an average of 5 km downstream and deposited on the floodplain and channel bed. Although vegetation was killed across the floodplain in the sprayed reach, erosion was almost entirely confined to the channel banks. The absence of dense, flexible woody stems on the banks reduced drag on the flow, leading to high shear stress at the toe of the banks, fluvial erosion, bank undercutting, and mass failure. The potential for increased erosion must be included in consideration of phreatophyte control projects.     

Diagnosis of cardiac defects: where we've been,where we are and where we're going

There has been tremendous development in the field of prenatal diagnosis of cardiac disease in the last 30 years. Early work centered on the technical aspects of providing an accurate assessment of cardiac structure and function. Techniques of fetal cardiac screening have been developed and utilized throughout the world. More recently, investigators have begun to explore the ramifications of fetal cardiac diagnosis by assessing measures of outcome. In this article, the field of fetal echocardiography, as a screening tool for identifying congenital heart disease, and its impact on disease outcome is reviewed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Retrofitting residential building envelopes for energy efficiency: motivations of individual homeowners in Israel

The willingness of private individuals in Israel to invest in energy-saving retrofit of the envelope of residential buildings was studied by means of a survey. Responses show that awareness of the need to conserve energy is high, but that willingness to participate in a retrofit project is modest and is limited to relatively small outlays. The decision on whether to retrofit at all, and then how much to invest in the project, is characterized as a two-stage process in which different factors may affect the outcome of each of the two stages. The major barrier to building retrofit is the perception (justified, in most cases) that the direct economic benefit to the homeowner from the resulting energy saving is small, and that given Israel's relatively mild climate, the payback period is very long. The stamp of approval provided by a government subsidy of 25% would have a large non-proportional effect on willingness to undertake building retrofit. Funding for the subsidy could be obtained from a Pigovian levy on electricity, applied for a limited period, and its environmental benefits outweigh the cost of the subsidy itself.     

Landscape change: Perceptions and physical measures

This paper addresses questions of affective responses of residents of rural Arizona to changes in proximate community and riparian landscapes and the congruence of their perceptions of change with physical measures of change in those landscapes. Based on findings and concepts from previous studies, perceptions of change were assessed using a mail survey. Physical measures of land use and vegetation change were obtained from aerial photography for two points in time spanning approximately 13 years and were analyzed using a geographic information system. Significant differences were found in perceptions of change in the community and riparian landscapes. In contrast with previous findings, a majority of respondents found the changes as either improving or having no effect on landscape quality. Those who were more frequent users of the riparian landscape tended to be more aware of changes in it. The findings also suggest challenges for planners and resource managers working in rural areas adjacent to riparian landscapes.     

Anatomic correlates of ultrasonographic prenatal diagnosis

In utero sonographic diagnoses from forty-five malformed infants were correlated with their autopsy findings. Fifty-two malformations were diagnosed prenatally in 42 of the patients but 90 additional malformations were not. Nine sonographically diagnosed abnormalities were not confirmed at autopsy. Factors compromising sonographic diagnosis included: limited examinations, small fetal size, timing of examination, oligohydramnios, fetal position, nature of the malformation and unfamiliarity of the ultrasonographer with specific malformation syndromes. In vitro ultrasonography is an invaluable tool of diagnosing congenital malformations but has limitations.