A fuzzy goal programming with interval target model and its application to the decision problem of renewable energy planning

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Optimizing sustainable renewable energy portfolios is one of the most complicated decision making problems in energy policy planning. This process involves...     

Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.     

Metal accumulation in Raphanus sativus and Brassica rapa: an assessment of potential health risk for inhabitants in Punjab,Pakistan

Pakistan is an agricultural country and due to the shortage of clean water, most of the irrigated area (32,500 ha) of Pakistan was supplied with wastewater (0.876?×?109 m³/year). Concentrations of heavy metals in radish (Raphanus sativus) and turnip (Brassica rapa) taken from vegetable fields in Sargodha, Pakistan, were measured. Untreated wastewater was used persistently for a long time to irrigate these vegetable fields. A control site was selected that had a history of fresh groundwater irrigation. Mean metal concentrations were found for irrigation water, soil, and vegetables. In irrigation water, concentrations of Mo and Pb at three sites and Se at sites II and III were higher than the recommended limits. In vegetables, concentrations of Mo and Pb were above the maximum permissible limits. High bioconcentration factor was observed for Zn (12.61 in R. sativus and 11.72 in B. rapa) at site I and high pollution load index was found for Pb (3.89 in R. sativus and 3.87 in B. rapa) at site II. The differences in metal concentrations found in samples depended upon different soil nature and assimilation capacities of vegetables at different sites which in turn depended upon different environmental cues. The entrance of metal and metalloids to human body may happen through different pathways; however, the food chain is the chief route through which metals are transferred from vegetables to individuals. Health risk index observed for metals, (Mo, As, Ni, Cu, and Pb) higher than 1 indicated high risk through consumption of these vegetables at three sites.

     

Identification and mapping of submerged plants in a shallow lake using Quickbird satellite data

Turkey is a country rich in lakes and wetlands--monitoring of all these will require advances in technology such as remote sensing. In this study, the aquatic plants of the large and shallow Lake Mogan, located in Central Anatolia were identified and mapped using high spatial resolution Quickbird imagery. As Lake Mogan is an important bird area the assessment of submerged plant species is of great value for ecosystem conservation and management. Quickbird multispectral image acquired on August 6, 2005 was geometrically corrected and a water mask was used based on strong absorption of Near Infrared (NIR) wavelengths by calm, clear and deep water. The water mask was applied using band reflectance values for a specific pixel satisfying the conditions of band decreasing property (Green>Red>NIR) and NIR相似文献   

Does foreign direct investment impede forest area in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

Foreign direct investment is an engine of economic growth. However, it may affect environmental quality (improve or deteriorate it), depending on the context. Under a multivariate framework, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment and deforestation for Sub‐Sahara African countries with economic growth, trade openness and urbanization as additional determinants of deforestation. The analyses reveal that all variables are non‐stationary and cointegrated based on recent panel data techniques. On applying dynamic ordinary least squares, the long‐run results suggest the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis for some countries, and that of the pollution halo hypothesis for other countries. The findings are also mixed across Sub‐Sahara African countries for trade openness and urbanization. The results from this study suggest that Sub‐Sahara African countries should continue attracting foreign direct investment, while a certain number of them should put more emphasis on controlling deforestation associated with foreign direct investment inflows to limit greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.     

The Effects of Three Thermo Electric Power Plants on Yerkesik-Denizova Forests in Mugla Province (Turkey)

Mugla is a city that is located in the southwest part of Turkey. Three thermo-electric power plants called Yatagan (3 × 210 MW) and Yenikoy (2 × 210 MW)and Kemerkoy (Gokova, 3 × 210 MW) havebeen constructed in this region and also have begun operation in 1982 – 1983 – 1984 (three units), in 1988 and in 1995, respectively. The Pinus brutia forests in Yerkesik–Denizova region have been under the common effects of Yenikoy and Yatagan thermo-electric power plants. Therefore, these Pinus brutia forests have startedto dry in groups since 1988. In addition, Kemerkoy thermo-electric power plant, began operation in 1995.Polluting gases arrived in Denizova-Yerkesik throughKoca Stream Valley Forests.Increasing quantities of polluting gases and especially SO₂ have dried the trees in large amounts in this 1650 ha forestland area. YataganThermo-electric power plant has caused drying of Pinus brutia in Bencik Mountain, which was on the south in 1984–1985. The same phenomenon was seen in Denizova-Yerkesik Forest in 1999–2000. It was observed that sulphur content was varying between 4218–6676 ppm at the Pinus brutia needle samples taken in this region on 16 December 2000. Sulphur contents were correlated with the age of needle (1–2 yr old), density of yellow stains on the needles and amount of drying needles. Particularly in 1996–2000 period, the destruction of chlorophyll in needles due to the impacts of SO₂ was also correlated with narrowing of the annual rings from one year to another. The narrowing ratio of yearly rings reached 60–504% for 94–95 yr old, and 375–661% for 58–63 yr old Pinus brutia trees during the 1986–1990, 1991–1995 and 1996–2000 periods.All these results clearly showed that the decrease in the chlorophyll content in needles under the effect of air pollution caused important reduction in the raw timber production and its inputs to the economy. In other words, drying due to increased ecological sensitivity or direct hazard of pollutants emitted by the power plants and cutting of trees have been notably increased in the region. This has created serious economic losses.     

Trace element biomonitoring by leaves of Populus nigra L. from Western Anatolia, Turkey

The West Anatolian Region is one of the most important areas for industrialization, population density and traffic in Turkey. Therefore, the leaves of Populus nigra L. (Salicaceae), which are used as biomonitor to investigate the levels of the trace elements Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn and Cu, were sampled at 30 locations having different pollution levels in the region. The concentrations of elements were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry. The samples were collected at both reference and contaminated locations where iron was found as the priority element. The strong association between a gradient of contamination and concentration in all samples tested indicates that they are reflecting well the environmental changes, and that they appear as appropriate biological indicators of heavy metal contamination.     

Arsenic mineralization,source, distribution,and abundance in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia,Turkey

Environmental exposure to arsenic (As) in the Kutahya region of the western Anatolia, Turkey has been reported to cause various types of arsenic-associated skin disorders (Dogan, Dogan, Celebi, & Baris, 2005). A geological and mineralogical study was conducted to find the sources and distribution of the As. Geogenic (background) levels were measured in samples collected from various sources in the Gediz, Simav, Tavsanli, Emet, Yoncali, Yenicekoy, and Muratdagi areas of the Kutahya region. Based on this analysis, we determined that natural sources are a domineering factor affecting the distribution of As, which was found: (1) mainly in evaporitic minerals, including colemanite (269–3900 ppm) and gypsum (11–99,999 ppm), but also in alunite (7–10 ppm) and chert (54–219 ppm); (2) in secondary epithermal gypsum, which has a high concentration of As in the form of realgar and orpiment along fracture zones of Mesozoic and Cenozoic carbonate aquifers; (3) in rocks, including limestone/dolomite (3–699 ppm) and travertine (5–4736 ppm), which are relatively more enriched in As than volcanics (2–14 ppm), probably because of secondary enrichment through hydrological systems; (4) in coal (1.9–46.5 ppm) in the sedimentary successions of the Tertiary basins; (5) in thermal waters, where As is unevenly distributed at concentrations varying from 0.0–0.9 mg/l. The highest As concentrations in thermal water (Gediz and Simav) correlate to the higher pH (7–9.3) and T (60–83°C) conditions and to the type of water (Na–HCO₃–SO₄ with high concentration of Ca, Mg, K, SiO₂, and Cl in the water). Changes in pH can be related to some redox reactions, such as the cation exchange reactions driving the dissolution of carbonates and silicates. Fe-oxidation, high pH values (7–9.3), presence of other trace metals (Ni, Co, Pb, Zn, Al), increased salinity (Na, Cl), high B, Li, F, and SiO, high Fe, SO₄ (magnetite, specularite-hematite, gypsum), and graphite, and the presence of U, Fe, Cu, Pb, Zn, and B, especially in the Emet, Gediz, and Simav areas, are the typical indicators for the geothermally affected water with high As content. A sixth source of As in this region is the ground (0.0–10.7 mg/l) and the surface waters (0.0022–0.01 mg/l), which are controlled by water–rock interaction, fracture system, and mixing/dilution of thermal waters. The high As concentration in groundwater corresponds to the areas where pathological changes are greatest in the habitants. Arsenic in ground water also effects ecology. For example, only Juriperus oxycedrus and J. varioxycedrus types of vegetation are observed in locations with the highest concentration of As in the region. Branches and roots of these plants are enriched in As.