Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver

There is an extensive literature on modeling the stochastic process of commodity futures. It has been shown that models with several risk factors are able to adequately fit both the level and the volatility structure of observed transactions with reasonable low errors.     

Hydromorphological and socio-cultural assessment of urban rivers to promote nature-based solutions in Jarabacoa,Dominican Republic

In Latin America and the Caribbean, river restoration projects are increasing, but many lack strategic planning and monitoring. We tested the applicability of a rapid visual social–ecological stream assessment method for restoration planning, complemented by a citizen survey on perceptions and uses of blue and green infrastructure. We applied the method at three urban streams in Jarabacoa (Dominican Republic) to identify and prioritize preferred areas for nature-based solutions. The method provides spatially explicit information for strategic river restoration planning, and its efficiency makes it suitable for use in data-poor contexts. It identifies well-preserved, moderately altered, and critically impaired areas regarding their hydromorphological and socio-cultural conditions, as well as demands on green and blue infrastructure. The transferability of the method can be improved by defining reference states for assessing the hydromorphology of tropical rivers, refining socio-cultural parameters to better address river services and widespread urban challenges, and balancing trade-offs between ecological and social restoration goals.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01565-3.     

Hydrocarbon biodegradation and dynamic laser speckle for detecting chemotactic responses at low bacterial concentration

We report on the biodegradation of pure hydrocarbons and chemotaxis towards these compounds by an isolated chlorophenol degrader,Pseudomonas strain H.The biochemical and phylogenetic analysis of the 16S rDNA sequence identified Pseudomonas strain H as having 99.56% similarity with P.aeruginosa PA01.This strain was able to degrade n-hexadecane,1-undecene,1-nonene,1-decene,1-dodecene and kerosene.It grew in the presence of 1-octene,while this hydrocarbons is toxic to other hydrocarbons degraders.Pseudomonas strain H was also chemotactic towards n-hexadecane,kerosene,1-undecene and 1-dodecene.These results show that this Pseudomonas strain H is an attractive candidate for hydrocarbon-containing wastewater bioremediation in controlled environments.Since the classical standard techniques for detecting chemotaxis are not efficient at low bacterial concentrations,we demonstrate the use of the dynamic speckle laser method,which is simple and inexpensive,to confirm bacterial chemotaxis at low cell concentrations (less than 105 colony-forming unit per millilitre (CFU/mL)) when hydrocarbons are the attractants.     

Ecotoxicity assessment of lipid regulators in water and biologically treated wastewater using three aquatic organisms

Background, aim, and scope  

The high consumption of blood lipid regulators is leading to frequent reports of the occurrence of fibrates in natural streams and wastewater effluents. This paper describes a study undertaken to evaluate the acute toxicity of bezafibrate, clofibric acid, gemfibrozil, and fenofibric acid, a metabolite of fenofibrate whose ecotoxicity has not been previously reported.     

Adverse birth outcomes in the vicinity of industrial installations in Spain 2004–2008

Industrial activity is one of the main sources of ambient pollution in developed countries. However, research analyzing its effect on birth outcomes is inconclusive. We analyzed the association between proximity of mother’s municipality of residence to industries from 24 different activity groups and risk of very (VPTB) and moderate (MPTB) preterm birth, very (VLBW) and moderate (MLBW) low birth weight, and small for gestational age (SGA) in Spain, 2004–2008. An ecological study was defined, and a “near vs. far” analysis (3.5 km threshold) was carried out using Hierarchical Bayesian models implemented via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation. VPTB risk was higher for mothers living near pharmaceutical companies. Proximity to galvanization and hazardous waste management industries increased the risk of MPTB. Risk of VLBW was higher for mothers residing near pharmaceutical and non-hazardous or animal waste management industries. For MLBW many associations were found, being notable the proximity to mining, biocides and animal waste management plants. The strongest association for SGA was found with proximity to management animal waste plants. These results highlight the importance of further research on the relationship between proximity to industrial sites and the occurrence of adverse birth outcomes especially for the case of pharmaceutical and animal waste management activities.     

Choosing policy instruments for controlling ozone depleting substances in a developing context: the case of Chile

Chile ratified the Montreal Protocol in 1990 which sets out an agenda for the reduction and then elimination of ozone depleting substances (ODS); however, by 1998 the country had not yet defined a strategy to encourage greater compliance, so that in the same year the National Environmental Commission decided to examine the policy options available. This paper examines the process followed to develop this strategy. As a first step it was necessary to look at how far the implicit policy of "business as usual" could be stretched without jeopardizing Chile's compliance obligations. A second step included quantifying compliance costs and their impact on different policy instruments and so policy choice. Finally, the attitudes of decision-makers or participants were identified, by interviews with officials of the different public agents involved, in order to weigh their views about policy. A strategy was proposed, based on this information, which the Chilean regulator has used, although not in its entirety. The methodology developed could well be useful for developing-country Protocol signatories building their own appropriate compliance strategy.     

Mortality due to haematological cancer in cities close to petroleum refineries in Spain

Controversy exists as to whether working or living in the vicinity of a petroleum refinery (RF) increases the risk of haematological cancer (HC). The European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register obliges petroleum refineries to notify their emissions of toxic substances which include carcinogenic substances. Our objective is to determine if living in the proximity of an RF is associated with a greater risk of mortality due to HC in the census tracts (CTs) of the Spanish cities of Bilbao, Cartagena, Castellón, La Coruña, Huelva, and Santa Cruz de Tenerife. This is an ecological study of mortality in the years 1996–2007 which includes 968 CTs with 1,263,371 inhabitants. Exposure has been measured as the distance from the centroid of each CT to the RF. The Besag–York–Mollié autoregressive spatial model has been fitted by R-INLA to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95 % credible intervals (95 % CrI) for distance in quintiles. The most distant quintile has been taken as the reference. A total of 2,574 persons died of HC. The distances from the CTs to RFs ranged from 0.5 to 22.5 km (median?=?7.6 km). All of the RRs for the quintiles of distances in Huelva were greater than 1. Statistically significant excess risk was shown in Cartagena in the nearest CT (1.8 to 6.8 km; RR?=?1.43, 95 % CrI 1.02 to 2.02). Radial effects have not been detected between the CT of residence and the petroleum RF in mortality due to HC in any of the cities.     

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400–480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993–2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.