Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Role of vitamin A in the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) in the rat.

The haematotoxicity of technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (1000 ppm) was investigated in male albino rats fed with diet free of vitamin A or containing vitamin A at 2000 or 10(5) I.U./kg. Assessment of HCH-induced haematotoxicity at the end of the 7 weeks feeding period was done on the basis of haemoglobin content, total count of red blood cells and white blood cells and the differential counts of the white blood cells as well as by parameters such as packed cell volume, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content, prothrombin time and clotting time. In the rats fed with vitamin A-free diet containing HCH, significant reductions were noticed in the total white blood cells count, clotting time and prothrombin time indicating severe haematotoxicity. Differential count of the white blood cells of these rats revealed a non-significant reduction in the lymphocyte count. The only indication of haematotoxicity caused by hexachlorocyclohexane in the vitamin A supplemented rats was a slight but statistically significant reduction of the total count of white blood cells. These results demonstrate that the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane in the rats is enhanced by vitamin A-deficiency and its supplementation particularly in excess but not at hypervitaminotic level is protective against the toxicity.     

Farmer Premiums for the Voluntary Adoption of Conservation Plans

Programs that reimburse farmers for the cost of implementing more environmentally benign management practices are becoming increasingly popular in both the US and the EU. Utilizing the random utility and random profit difference approaches, the paper develops a theoretical model that explains why farmers may require a premium in excess of the decrease in profits to adopt a conservation plan, and may even require a premium in the case where adoption of the plan is associated with a mean increase in profits. This premium is estimated using a survey of farmers in conjunction with predictions of changes in production costs.     

Sources, distribution, and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in Nairobi City, Kenya

The distribution and sources of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air and surface waters were monitored in Nairobi City using triolein-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The SPMDs were extracted by dialysis using n-hexane, followed by cleanup by adsorption chromatography on silica gel cartridges. Sample analysis was done by GC-ECD and confirmed by GC–MS. Separation of means was achieved by analysis of variance, followed by pair-wise comparison using the t-test (p≤ 0.05). The total OCPs ranged between 0.018 – 1.277 ng/m³ in the air and <LOD – 1391.000 ng/m³ in surface waters. Based on the results, the means of Industrial Area, Dandora and Kibera were not significantly different (p≤ 0.05), but were higher (p≤ 0.05) than those of City square and Ngong’ Forest. The results revealed non-significant (p≤ 0.05) contribution of long-range transport to OCP pollution in Nairobi City. This indicated possible presence of point sources of environmental OCPs in the city. The water-air fugacity ratios indicated that volatilization and deposition played an important role in the spatial distribution of OCPs in Nairobi City. This indicated that contaminated surface waters could be major sources of human exposure to OCPs, through volatilization. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) determined from inhalation of atmospheric OCPs were 2.3745  ×  10^?13 – 1.6845  ×  10^?11 (adult) and 5.5404  ×  10^?13 – 3.9306  ×  10^?11 (child) in the order: Dandora > Kibera > Industrial Area > City Square > Ngong’ Forest. However, these were lower than the USEPA acceptable risks, 10^?6 – 10^?4. This study concluded that atmospheric OCPs did not pose significant cancer risks to the residents.     

The efficacy of protoporphyrin as a predictive biomarker for lead exposure in canvasback ducks: Effect of sample storage time

We used 363 blood samples collected from wild canvasback dueks (Aythya valisineria) at Catahoula Lake, Louisiana, U.S.A. to evaluate the effect of sample storage time on the efficacy of erythrocytic protoporphyrin as an indicator of lead exposure. The protoporphyrin concentration of each sample was determined by hematofluorometry within 5 min of blood collection and after refrigeration at 4 °C for 24 and 48 h. All samples were analyzed for lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Based on a blood lead concentration of 0.2 ppm wet weight as positive evidence for lead exposure, the protoporphyrin technique resulted in overall error rates of 29%, 20%, and 19% and false negative error rates of 47%, 29% and 25% when hematofluorometric determinations were made on blood at 5 min, 24 h, and 48 h, respectively. False positive error rates were less than 10% for all three measurement times. The accuracy of the 24-h erythrocytic protoporphyrin classification of blood samples as positive or negative for lead exposure was significantly greater than the 5-min classification, but no improvement in accuracy was gained when samples were tested at 48 h. The false negative errors were probably due, at least in part, to the lag time between lead exposure and the increase of blood protoporphyrin concentrations. False negatives resulted in an underestimation of the true number of canvasbacks exposed to lead, indicating that hematofluorometry provides a conservative estimate of lead exposure.The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledgedDeceased     

Air Pollution and Heat Exposure Study in the Workplace in a Glass Manufacturing Unit in India

Air pollution in the workplace environment due to industrial operation have been found to cause serious occupational health hazard. Similarly, heat stress is still most neglected occupational hazard in the tropical and subtropical countries like India. The hot climate augments the heat exposure close to sources like furnaces. In this study an attempt is made to assess air pollution and heat exposure levels to workers in the workplace environment in glass manufacturing unit located in the State of Gujarat, India. Samples for workplace air quality were collected for SPM, SO₂, NO₂ and CO₂ at eight locations. Results of workplace air quality showed 8-hourly average concentrations of SPM: 165–9118 μg/m³, SO₂: 6–9 μg/m³ and NO₂: 5–42 μg/m³, which were below the threshold limit values of workplace environment. The level of CO₂ in workplace air of the plant was found to be in the range 827–2886 μg/m³, which was below TLV but much higher than the normal concentration for CO₂ in the air (585 mg/m³). Indoor heat exposure was studied near the furnace and at various locations in an industrial complex for glass manufacturing. The heat exposure parameters including the air temperature, the wet bulb temperature, and the globe parameters were measured. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), an indicator of heat, exceeded ACGIH TLVs limits most of the time at all the locations in workplace areas. The recommended duration of work and rest have also been estimated.     

Aerosol Scavenging: Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis in the Indian Context

Sulfate aerosols have been found to bethe major contributors to precipitation acidity. Thus,in view of the long-term ecological repercussions theyhave on aquatic ecosystems and their acidity-potential,the present analysis focuses on a case study applicationof the layer-averaged aerosol-scavenging model (Okita et al., 1996) for predicting values of the wet scavengingcoefficient and sulfate concentrations in precipitationsamples on the basis of the information available forsome selected Indian cities. Through sensitivityanalysis (Pandey et al., 1997) the scavengingcoefficient has been found to be very strongly dependenton precipitation intensity. Comparison of modelpredictions has been done with the measured values forDelhi, Mumbai, Calcutta and Chennai in India.     

A Watershed-based Cumulative Risk Impact Analysis: Environmental Vulnerability and Impact Criteria

Swine Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) have received much attention in recent years. As a result, a watershed-based screening tool, the Cumulative Risk Index Analysis (CRIA), was developed to assess the cumulative impacts of multiple CAFO facilities in a watershedsubunit. The CRIA formula calculates an index number based on: 1) the area of one or more facilities compared to the area of the watershed subunit, 2) the average of the environmental vulnerability criteria, and 3) the average of the industry-specific impact criteria. Each vulnerability or impact criterion is ranked on a 1 to 5 scale, with a low rank indicating low environmental vulnerability or impact and a high rank indicating high environmental vulnerability or impact. The individual criterion ranks, as well as the total CRIA score, can be used to focus the environmental analysis and facilitate discussions with industry, public, and other stakeholders in the Agency decision-making process.     

Sequential extractions of selenium soils from Stewart Lake: total selenium and speciation measurements with ICP-MS detection

Different techniques have been employed in order to evaluate the most efficient procedure for the extraction of selenium from soil as required for speciation. Selenium contaminated sediments from Stewart Lake Wetland, California were used. A strong acid mineralization of the samples gives quantitative total selenium, which is then used to estimate recoveries for the milder extraction methods. The different extraction methodologies involve the sequential use of water, buffer (phosphate, pH 7) and either acid solution (e.g. HNO3 or HCl) or basic solutions (e.g. ammonium acetate, NaOH or TMAH). Pyrophosphate extraction was also evaluated and showed that selenium was not associated with humic acids. The extractants were subsequently analyzed by size exclusion chromatography (SEC) with UV (254 and 400 nm) and on-line ICP-MS detection; anion exchange chromatography, and ion-pair reversed phase chromatography with ICP-MS detection. For sequential extractions the extraction efficiencies showed that the basic extractions were more efficient than the acidic. The difference between the acidic and the basic extraction efficiency is carried to the sulfite extraction, suggesting that whatever is not extracted by the acid is subsequently extracted by the sulfite. The species identified with the different chromatographies were selenate, selenite, elemental selenium and some organic selenium.     

Emissions of VOCs at Urban Petrol Retail Distribution Centres in India (Delhi and Mumbai)

Air pollution has assumed gigantic proportion killing almost half a million Asians every year. Urban pollution mainly comprises of emissions from buses, trucks, motorcycle other forms of motorized transport and its supporting activities. As Asia's cities continue to expand the number of vehicles have risen resulting in greater pollution. Fugitive emissions from retail distribution center in urban area constitute a major source. Petrol vapours escape during refueling adding pollutants like benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene to ambient air. This paper discusses a study on fugitive emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) at some refueling station in two metropolitan cities of India, i.e., Mumbai and Delhi. Concentration of VOCs in ambient air at petrol retail distribution center is estimated by using TO-17 method. Concentration of benzene in ambient air in Delhi clearly shows the effect of intervention in use of petroleum and diesel fuel and shift to CNG. Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) model is used to estimate source contributions. At Delhi besides diesel combustion engines, refueling emissions are also major sources. At Mumbai evaporative emissions are found to contribute maximum to Total VOC (TVOC) concentration in ambient air.