Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

The “Short Cut” Approach for the Reality of Enhanced Groundwater Contamination

Based on the reality of (a) soil heterogeneity in the vadose zone, (b) enhanced desorption from soil and solubility in water of water insoluble contaminants in the presence of surfactants, and (c) wetting/drying cycles of groundwater recharge (a major cause of fractures formation), a coherent “short-cut” conceptual approach is advanced to account for enhanced groundwater contamination. This is an attempt to close the gap between theory, lab simulations and conventional modelling-based predictions, and observed higher concentrations and more rapid arrival times of contaminants reaching groundwater. Recent data concerning chloride ion and non-ionic surfactants concentrations in aquifers and groundwater wells, combined with previous results concerning the concentrations of tritium, chlorides, metals, organic hydrocarbons and surfactants in the unsaturated and saturated zones of Israel's aquifers, are accounted for in terms of the “short-cut” approach. The contradiction between predictions of groundwater contamination made with conventional, deterministic, homogeneous models and the actual observed behavior of contaminants in soils and aquifers is thus explaind. The “short cut” approach should not be perceived as a better type of model to guide modelling. Rather, it is a proposal for a conceptual change from the realistically invalid, but commonly accepted, conventional “buffer-protective soil/long-term groundwater contamination” to the “short cut” conceptual model to explain the enhanced groundwater contamination actually observed. Although the validity of the proposed approach is strongly supported by the data here presented for the case of Israel (serving as an illustrative case study), selected results and conclusions drawn from studies conducted worldwide suggest its general applicability and usefulness. A major conclusion evolved from the “short-cut” conceptual model is that contemporary groundwater management policies, based on the current perception of groundwater contamination processes and their modelling, may result in an irreversible detrimental effect on the environmental situation in the long run. In any case, prevention, rather than correction/remediation, is strongly recommended as the strategy of choice for rational long-term management of groundwater resources.