Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability

This paper shows the strong relation between the factors that lead to the resource curse (RC) and factors that lead to a decline of genuine savings (GS). There is substantial empirical evidence that economies that rely predominantly on their natural resources are also characterized by slower economic growth. This so‐called RC is commonly traced back to the fact that natural resources' generate rents that are independent of a country's economic performance, which can lead to suboptimal reinvestments of this consumed natural capital. We argue that the factors responsible for the RC also have a negative effect on GS, a concept that measures “weak” sustainable development by considering reinvestment of natural capital rents in physical and human capital. We discuss whether the RC hampers possibilities for resource abundant countries to obtain sufficiently high rates of GS, and find indeed many reasons why resource‐dependent countries have problems achieving positive GS rates. We survey both areas of research, emphasizing the influence of the exogenous and endogenous determinants of economic growth, which are usually used to theoretically and empirically explain the RC on the three different forms of capital considered by GS. We specify why most countries suffering from the RC have negative GS rates and explain in detail where the linkages are. This overview could help with potential advancements in the explanation of GS through the inclusion of RC effects.     

Evidence for bismuth-207 in global fallout

Samples of lichen, moss, soil and air collected since 1961 in Greenland, Svalbard, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Sweden and Denmark have been remeasured for γ-emitting radionuclides by Ge(Li) spectroscopy. The samples have shown the presence of ²⁰⁷Bi (physical half-life 38 years), a nuclide which has not been reported earlier in world-wide fallout. The concentrations of ²⁰⁷Bi have been compared with those of ⁶⁰Co, ¹²⁵Sb, and ¹³⁷Cs. From this comparison the production of ²⁰⁷Bi is estimated at 1 PBq. It is assumed that the ²⁰⁷Bi is created in thermonuclear tested explosions in general and that in particular the 55Mt detonation of 30 October 1961 at Novaya Zemlya may have produced this activation product.     

Radioactivity in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is, like the Mediterranean, a marginal sea, which with the Black Sea, were marine environments contaminated from the Chernobyl accident.

Radiocaesium and plutonium isotopes were studied in water, sediment and macroalgae in the Baltic Sea since 1982. the inventory of ¹³⁷Cs in the Baltic increased from 0.65 PBq to 5.85 PBq following the Chernobyl accident. the corresponding increase for ^{239 + 240}Pu was less significant and yielded 1.5 TBq to a total value of 16.5 TBq.

For plutonium, 98% is trapped in the sediment and the net-exchange of this element through the Baltic straits is very small (1 GBq/year), while for radiocaesium, 45% is in the water phase and there is a net-loss of 60 000 GBq annually into the adjacent water (Kattegatt).     

Parallel and serial methods of calculating thermal insulation in European manikin standards

Standard No. EN 15831:2004 provides 2 methods of calculating insulation: parallel and serial. The parallel method is similar to the global one defined in Standard No. ISO 9920:2007. Standards No. EN 342:2004, EN 14058:2004 and EN 13537:2002 refer to the methods defined in Standard No. EN ISO 15831:2004 for testing cold protective clothing or equipment. However, it is necessary to consider several issues, e.g., referring to measuring human subjects, when using the serial method. With one zone, there is no serial-parallel issue as the results are the same, while more zones increase the difference in insulation value between the methods. If insulation is evenly distributed, differences between the serial and parallel method are relatively small and proportional. However, with more insulation layers overlapping in heavy cold protective ensembles, the serial method produces higher insulation values than the parallel one and human studies. Therefore, the parallel method is recommended for standard testing.     

A narrative perspective on institutional work in environmental governance – insights from a beach nourishment case study in Sweden

Institutional work offers a promising lens for understanding institutional change, focusing on the efforts of actors in creating, maintaining or disrupting institutions. In this paper, we explore the capacity of a narrative approach to provide insights on institutional work, using a case study from the coast of Sweden. We identify four narratives that compete in the policy discourse regarding erosion and beach nourishment in the coastal province of Scania. The narratives reveal that actors hold different beliefs concerning the magnitude of the erosion problem, the division of responsibilities and the suitability of sand nourishment as a coastal protection measure. The narrative competition is considered reflective of past institutional discussions and ongoing institutional work in coastal management in Scania, confirming that narratives are used as sense-making and meaning-giving devices in institutional discussions.     

Radionuclide fluxes at a plant manufacturing dicalcium phosphate for domestic animals

We have studied a phosphate rock plant which produces dicalcium phosphate (DCP), used as a source of calcium and phosphorus for domestic animals. A by-product in the manufacturing process is calcium chloride which is used in the oil industry, the food industry and as road-salt. The objectives of our study were to describe the fluxes of radionuclides from the 238U decay series and to estimate the radiation doses to workers at the plant. The radionuclides in the phosphate rock were found to be in secular radioactive equilibrium with 238U, with an average activity concentration of 837 Bq kg-1. Separation and concentration processes were observed at different stages in the plant. Most of the 226Ra was found in the calcium chloride, while the major part of the 238U, about 950 Bq kg-1, was found in the dicalcium phosphate. The annual occupational effective dose to the workers was found to be below the 1 mSv limit recommended by ICRP (1991a) for the public. This study has shown a good example of an important non-nuclear industry with a high input of natural radionuclides with several conceivable pathways to man.     

Using digital image projections to visualize forest landscape changes due to management activities and forest growth

A pedagogic problem in forestry and landscape management is to visualize future landscape effects of forest growth and current management activities in the forest. This paper presents a method for forecasting digital image projections of forest landscape dynamics. Static nonlinear regression functions estimate the digital numbers in a Landsat Thematic Mapper image. Regressors used are forest stand variables. By estimating the future forest stand data, based on intermediate treatment and growth, future satellite digital images are created. In a case study example, the future landscape of a forest block in the province of Västernorrland, Sweden, is projected to demonstrate the application of this visualization technique.     

Design and evaluation of an inlet conditioner to dry particles for real-time particle sizers

Real-time particle sizers provide rapid information about atmospheric particles, particularly peak exposures, which may be important in the development of adverse health outcomes. However, these instruments are subject to erroneous readings in high-humidity environments when compared with measurements from filter-based, federal reference method (FRM) samplers. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the ability of three inlet conditioners to dry aerosol prior to entering a real-time particle sizer for measuring coarse aerosols (Model 3321 Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, APS) under simulated highly humid conditions. Two 30 day field studies in Birmingham, AL, USA were conducted to compare the response of two APSs operated with and without an inlet conditioner to that measured with FRM samplers. In field studies, the correlation of PM(10-2.5) derived from the APS and that measured with the FRM was substantially stronger with an inlet conditioner applied (r2 ranged from 0.91 to 0.99) than with no conditioner (r2 = 0.61). Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the heater and desiccant conditioner to remove particle-borne moisture. In field tests, water was found associated with particles across the sizing range of the APS (0.5 microm to 20 microm) when relative humidity was high in Birmingham. Certain types of inlet conditioners may substantially improve the correlation between particulate mass concentration derived from real-time particle sizers and filter-based samplers in humid conditions.