Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Solar energy for electricity and fuels

Solar energy conversion into electricity by photovoltaic modules is now a mature technology. We discuss the need for materials and device developments using conventional silicon and other materials, pointing to the need to use scalable materials and to reduce the energy payback time. Storage of solar energy can be achieved using the energy of light to produce a fuel. We discuss how this can be achieved in a direct process mimicking the photosynthetic processes, using synthetic organic, inorganic, or hybrid materials for light collection and catalysis. We also briefly discuss challenges and needs for large-scale implementation of direct solar fuel technologies.     

Protected Area as an Indicator of Ecological Sustainability? A Century of Development in Europe’s Boreal Forest

Protected area (PA) is an indicator linked to policies on ecological sustainability. We analyzed area, size, and categories of PAs in the European boreal forest biome in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia from 1900 to 2010. The PA increased from 1.5 × 10³ ha in 1909 to 2.3 × 10⁷ ha in 2010. While the total PA in the boreal biome was 10.8 %, the figures ranged from 17.2 % in the northern, 7.9 % of the middle, and 8.7 % of the southern boreal sub-regions. The median size of PAs varied from 10 to 124 ha among countries. The categories of less strictly PAs increased over time. The proportion of area occupied by PAs is an important response indicator for conservation efforts. However, the use of PA as an indicator of ecological sustainability needs to consider ecosystem representation, functional connectivity and management categories.     

Comment: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

Tilton et al. claim in their article “Investor demand and spot commodity prices” to show that “investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling.” In the present comment, it is argued that in both the cases described by Tilton et al., investors are supplying the market, putting physical material into it, rather than adding to demand. Thus, the reasoning by Tilton et al. is not concerned with the phenomenon referred to in the traditional theory, where, in the absence of changes in demand and supply fundamentals, prices rise as a result of increased investor demand for futures contracts.     

Pheromone of the elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae): stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol reduce interspecific competition

Stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol (MH) are pheromone components of several Scolytus bark beetles. The elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) has in previous studies been caught in traps baited with commercial MH containing all four stereoisomers, but the lure has been considered a weak attractant. In this study, we addressed the question whether stereospecific responses by S. laevis to stereoisomers of MH might contribute to its niche separation from other sympatric Scolytus species. Using GC–MS, we analyzed extracts of hindguts and abdomens from male and female S. laevis and the sympatric S. triarmatus. We also tested all four MH-stereoisomers individually and in combinations in the field to determine their role for S. laevis. All four stereoisomers were synthesized via a boronic ester method with 1,2-dicyclohexylethanediol as chiral director. In addition, the (3S,4R)-stereoisomer of MH was prepared through enantioselective, lipase-mediated transesterification of a mixture of the four stereoisomers of MH. Females of both species contained small amounts of syn-MH, and males contained trace amounts of anti-MH. The anti stereoisomer (3R,4S)-MH was attractive to male and female S. laevis, whereas the syn stereoisomer (3S,4S)-MH acted as an inhibitor or deterrent and reduced the catch when added to the attractive isomer. The syn isomer is the main aggregation pheromone component of the larger and sympatric S. scolytus and possibly also of S. triarmatus. The avoidance response of S. laevis to the (3S,4S)-stereoisomer may reduce interspecific competition for host trees.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Whiplash-associated disorders in frontal impacts: influencing factors and consequences

This multidisciplinary in-depth investigation of accidents using 24 occupants with neck symptoms shows the complexity of whiplash-associated disorders (WAD) in frontal impacts with respect to factors that influence occurrence as well as duration of symptoms. Several different occupant kinematics have been identified, all resulting in symptoms classified as WAD. Compared to occupants restrained only by a seat belt, occupants with arm resistance influence showed a greater representation of symmetrical neck symptoms. Two cases of unbelted occupants with a neck compression mechanism far from conventional "whiplash" motion were found. Posture as well as physical and psychosocial factors such as strong negative reactions, bad prognosis expectation, and stressed daily activities influenced the duration of symptoms. Occupant characteristics and sitting posture and behavior at the time of impact are important factors when analyzing and understanding WAD.     

Preface

Preface

Preface