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基于LOADEST和数字滤波的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法应用实例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
地表直接径流和基流均是流域非点源氮/磷养分输出的重要水文途径.科学认识和定量模拟基流氮/磷养分输出对于准确解析水源地水体非点源污染来源至关重要.基于Load Estimator模型和数字滤波算法,建立了定量水源地基流氮素输出的方法体系.以浙江省珊溪水源地的玉泉溪流域为例,利用玉泉溪2010-01—2013-12期间逐月总氮(TN)水质监测数据和逐日流量数据,展示了该方法的计算过程.结果表明,本文建立的水源地基流氮素输出定量方法结果合理,模拟精度高,决定系数和纳什系数分别为0.83和0.80;玉泉溪流域2010—2013年TN负荷量为141.21~274.68 t·a~(-1),平均208.63 t·a~(-1),年基流TN负荷量为84.39~168.68 t·a~(-1),平均127.69 t·a~(-1);基流对玉泉溪年均TN负荷量贡献率高达60%以上,流域基流养分输出对地表水体的污染应引起足够重视. 相似文献
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Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
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通过对WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecasting Model Coupled to Chemistry)环境模式模拟资料、HYSPLIT(HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model)前/后向气团轨迹资料、环境站监测资料,以及西安理工大学(Xi''an University of Technology,简称XUT)多波长激光雷达、米散射激光雷达、能见度仪、粒谱仪等观测资料的综合诊断,探讨了2019年1月初发生在西安的雾霾过程(记为首场雾霾)PM2.5组分、分布及传输特征,旨在为雾霾气溶胶研究提供有益的个例积累.定性、定量双重检验表明,Chem模式较成功复制了此次雾霾气溶胶过程.利用这些可靠的模式数据分析表明,PM2.5中碳气溶胶的主要组分为有机碳,约占85%,强盛期气溶胶各组分随高度增加均呈递减趋势,各组分近地面浓度最高.通过对两类不同方法获取的消光系数对比分析表明,相比于模式数据,激光雷达数据具有更高的垂直分辨率,因此,更善于描述消光廓线的细节特征.通过对多源资料的综合诊断最终揭示出,"北风涌"是雾霾消散的关键影响因子,沿铜川-西安-山阳一带存在着污染物传输的重要路径,雾霾由此体现出自北向南依次消散的特征. 相似文献
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Ian M. Picketts Jean Andrey Lindsay Matthews Stephen J. Déry Susan Tighe 《Regional Environmental Change》2016,16(4):1109-1120
Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities. 相似文献
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Rituparna Hajra Sylvia Szabo Zachary Tessler Tuhin Ghosh Zoe Matthews Efi Foufoula-Georgiou 《Sustainability Science》2017,12(3):453-464
Coastal regions have long been settled by humans due to their abundant resources for livelihoods, including agriculture, transportation, and rich biodiversity. However, natural and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and sea-level rise, and land subsidence, population pressure, developmental activities, pose threats to coastal sustainability. Natural hazards, such as fluvial or coastal floods, impact poorer and more vulnerable communities greater than more affluent communities. Quantitative assessments of how natural hazards affect vulnerable communities in deltaic regions are still limited, hampering the design of effective management strategies to increase household and community resilience. Drawing from Driving Forces–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR), we quantify the associations between household poverty and the likelihood of material and human loss following a natural hazard using new survey data from 783 households within Indian Sundarban Delta community. The results suggest that the poorest households are significantly more likely to endure material and human losses following a natural hazard and repeated losses of livelihood make them more vulnerable to future risk. The results further suggest that salinization, tidal surge, erosion, and household location are also significant predictors of economic and human losses. Given the current and projected impact of climate change and importance of delta regions as the world’s food baskets, poverty reduction and increase societal resilience should be a primary pathway to strengthen the resilience of the poorest populations inhabiting deltas. 相似文献
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城市河道是城市再生水利用的主要载体,而人工湿地是城市再生水河道补水前主要的水质净化方式.为了解再生水补水与人工湿地对再生水补水段水质的影响,选取北京市潮白河再生水补水河段作为研究对象,利用聚类分析、判别分析及因子分析等方法对不同季节水体的水质情况进行分析.结果表明:研究区内水体氮磷污染严重,其中TN污染表现为NO3--N、NO2--N和NH4+-N的混合型污染.聚类分析结果表明,水质在季节尺度上表现为丰水期(6-9月)和枯水期(2月、3月、5月和12月)两大类;在空间尺度上受再生水补水和湿地净化的影响表现为显著的空间差异性.判别分析结果表明,再生水补给对河道水质的影响无显著季节差异,湿地净化功能在丰水期和枯水期差异较大且丰水期湿地的净化效果最为明显.因子分析结果表明,再生水作为城市河道的补充水源,一方面对河道中的F-、Chl-a等起到稀释作用,另一方面使得水体中的N、P及离子含量增加;丰水期湿地的净化作用使水体中氮磷等有机营养物质含量及ρ(TDS)等显著降低. 相似文献
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