Relating net nitrogen input in the Mississippi River basin to nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River: a comparison of approaches

A quantitative understanding of the relationship between terrestrial N inputs and riverine N flux can help guide conservation, policy, and adaptive management efforts aimed at preserving or restoring water quality. The objective of this study was to compare recently published approaches for relating terrestrial N inputs to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) with measured nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Nitrogen inputs to and outputs from the MRB (1951 to 1996) were estimated from state-level annual agricultural production statistics and NOy (inorganic oxides of N) deposition estimates for 20 states that comprise 90% of the MRB. A model with water yield and gross N inputs accounted for 85% of the variation in observed annual nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River, from 1960 to 1998, but tended to underestimate high nitrate flux and overestimate low nitrate flux. A model that used water yield and net anthropogenic nitrogen inputs (NANI) accounted for 95% of the variation in riverine N flux. The NANI approach accounted for N harvested in crops and assumed that crop harvest in excess of the nutritional needs of the humans and livestock in the basin would be exported from the basin. The U.S. White House Committee on Natural Resources and Environment (CENR) developed a more comprehensive N budget that included estimates of ammonia volatilization, denitrification, and exchanges with soil organic matter. The residual N in the CENR budget was weakly and negatively correlated with observed riverine nitrate flux. The CENR estimates of soil N mineralization and immobilization suggested that there were large (2000 kg N ha-1) net losses of soil organic N between 1951 and 1996. When the CENR N budget was modified by assuming that soil organic N levels have been relatively constant after 1950, and ammonia volatilization losses are redeposited within the basin, the trend of residual N closely matched temporal variation in NANI and was positively correlated with riverine nitrate flux in the lower Mississippi River. Based on results from applying these three modeling approaches, we conclude that although the NANI approach does not address several processes that influence the N cycle, it appears to focus on the terms that can be estimated with reasonable certainty and that are correlated with riverine N flux.     

Evaluation of the ADAPT model for simulating nitrogen dynamics in a tile-drained agricultural watershed in central Illinois

Assessing the accuracy of agronomic and water quality simulation models in different soils, land-use systems, and environments provides a basis for using and improving these models. We evaluated the performance of the ADAPT model for simulating riverine nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) export from a 1500-km2 watershed in central Illinois, where approximately 85% of the land is used for maize-soybean production and tile drainage is common. Soil chemical properties, crop nitrogen (N) uptake coefficient, dry matter ratio, and a denitrification reduction coefficient were used as calibration parameters to optimize the fit between measured and simulated NO3-N load from the watershed for the 1989 to 1993 period. The applicability of the calibrated parameter values was tested by using these values for simulating the 1994 to 1997 period on the same watershed. Willmott's index of agreement ranged from 0.91 to 0.97 for daily, weekly, monthly, and annual comparisons of riverine nitrate N loads. Simulation accuracy generally decreased as the time interval decreased. Willmott's index for simulated crop yields ranged from 0.91 to 0.99; however, observed crop yields were used as input to the model. The partial N budget results suggested that 52 to 72 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) accumulated in the soil, but simulated biological N fixation associated with soybeans was considerably greater than literature values for the region. Improvement of the N fixation algorithms and incorporation of mechanisms that describe soybean yield in response to environmental conditions appear to be needed to improve the performance of the model.     

Miscanthus and switchgrass production in central Illinois: impacts on hydrology and inorganic nitrogen leaching

Biomass crops are being promoted as environmentally favorable alternatives to fossil fuels or ethanol production from maize (Zea mays L.), particularly across the Corn Belt of the United States. However, there are few if any empirical studies on inorganic N leaching losses from perennial grasses that are harvested on an annual basis, nor has there been empirical evaluation of the hydrologic consequences of perennial cropping systems. Here we report on the results of 4 yr of field measurements of soil moisture and inorganic N leaching from a conventional maize-soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] system and two unfertilized perennial grasses harvested in winter for biomass: Miscanthus x giganteus and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum cv. Cave-in-Rock). All crops were grown on fertile Mollisols in east-central Illinois. Inorganic N leaching was measured with ion exchange resin lysimeters placed 50 cm below the soil surface. Maize--soybean nitrate leaching averaged 40.4 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), whereas switchgrass and Miscanthus had values of 1.4 and 3.0 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1), respectively. Soil moisture monitoring (to a depth of 90 cm) indicated that both perennial grasses dried the soil out earlier in the growing season compared with maize-soybean. Later in the growing season, soil moisture under switchgrass tended to be greater than maize-soybean or Miscanthus, whereas the soil under Miscanthus was consistently drier than under maize--soybean. Water budget calculations indicated that evapotranspiration from Miscanthus was about 104 mm yr(-1) greater than under maize-soybean, which could reduce annual drainage water flows by 32% in central Illinois. Drainage water is a primary source of surface water flows in the region, and the impact ofextensive Miscanthus production on surface water supplies and aquatic ecosystems deserves further investigation.     

Sources of nitrate yields in the Mississippi River Basin

Riverine nitrate N in the Mississippi River leads to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Several recent modeling studies estimated major N inputs and suggested source areas that could be targeted for conservation programs. We conducted a similar analysis with more recent and extensive data that demonstrates the importance of hydrology in controlling the percentage of net N inputs (NNI) exported by rivers. The average fraction of annual riverine nitrate N export/NNI ranged from 0.05 for the lower Mississippi subbasin to 0.3 for the upper Mississippi River basin and as high as 1.4 (4.2 in a wet year) for the Embarras River watershed, a mostly tile-drained basin. Intensive corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] watersheds on Mollisols had low NNI values and when combined with riverine N losses suggest a net depletion of soil organic N. We used county-level data to develop a nonlinear model ofN inputs and landscape factors that were related to winter-spring riverine nitrate yields for 153 watersheds within the basin. We found that river runoff times fertilizer N input was the major predictive term, explaining 76% of the variation in the model. Fertilizer inputs were highly correlated with fraction of land area in row crops. Tile drainage explained 17% of the spatial variation in winter-spring nitrate yield, whereas human consumption of N (i.e., sewage effluent) accounted for 7%. Net N inputs were not a good predictor of riverine nitrate N yields, nor were other N balances. We used this model to predict the expected nitrate N yield from each county in the Mississippi River basin; the greatest nitrate N yields corresponded to the highly productive, tile-drained cornbelt from southwest Minnesota across Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. This analysis can be used to guide decisions about where efforts to reduce nitrate N losses can be most effectively targeted to improve local water quality and reduce export to the Gulf of Mexico.     

Revisiting nitrate concentrations in the Des Moines River: 1945 and 1976-2001

Recent compilations of historical and contemporary riverine nitrate (NO3) concentrations indicate that concentrations in many rivers in the north-central USA increased during the second half of the 20th century. The Des Moines River near Des Moines, Iowa, however, was reported to have had similar NO3 concentrations in 1945 and the 1980s, in spite of substantially greater N input to the watershed during the latter period. The objective of this study was to reconsider the comparison of historical and contemporary NO3 concentrations in the Des Moines River near Des Moines in light of the following: (i) possible errors in the historical data used, (ii) variations in methods of sample collection, (iii) variations in location of sampling, and (iv) additional data collected since 1990. We discovered that an earlier study had compared the flow-weighted average concentration in 1945 to arithmetic annual average concentrations in the 1980s. The intertemporal comparison also appeared to be influenced by differences in sample collection methods and locations used at different times. Depending on the model used and the estimated effects of composite sample collection, the 1945 arithmetic average NO3 concentration was between 44 and 57% of the expected mean value at a similar water yield during 1976-2001. The flow-weighted average NO3 concentration for 1945 was between 54 and 73% of the expected mean value at a similar water yield during 1976-2001. The difference between NO3 concentrations in 1945 and the contemporary period are larger than previously reported for the Des Moines River.     

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Phosphorus Loads in the Illinois River Basin,Illinois USA

Total phosphorus (TP) loads in many rivers in the north-central United States have increased, including the Illinois River at Valley City, Illinois, USA, which increased 39% from the periods 1989–1996 to 2015–2019 despite efforts to reduce loads from point and nonpoint sources. Here, we quantify long-term variations in phosphorus (P) loads in the Illinois River and its tributaries and identify factors that may be causing the variations. We calculated river loads of dissolved (DP) and particulate P (PP), total and volatile suspended solids (TSS and VSS), and other potentially related constituents at 41 locations. DP loads generally increased and PP and TSS loads generally decreased from 1989–1996 to 2015–2019. During 1989–1996, P accumulated in the lower basin between Marseilles and Valley City (excluding monitored tributaries). This portion of the basin is very flat and accumulates sediment. During 2015–2019, this section shifted from being a net sink to being a net source of P, accounting for 78% of the increased TP load at Valley City. We present evidence supporting several mechanisms that could have caused this shift: increased DP and chloride loads, reduced sulfate and nitrate concentrations influencing ionic strength and redox potential in the sediments, and increased VSS loads at Valley City possibly indicating greater algal production and contributing to hypoxia in lower river sediments. Additional research is needed to quantify the relative importance of these mechanisms.     

Modeling riverine nitrate export from an East-Central Illinois watershed using SWAT

Reliable water quality models are needed to forecast the water quality consequences of different agricultural nutrient management scenarios. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), version 2000, was applied to simulate streamflow, riverine nitrate (NO(3)) export, crop yield, and watershed nitrogen (N) budgets in the upper Embarras River (UER) watershed in east-central Illinois, which has extensive maize-soybean cultivation, large N fertilizer input, and extensive tile drainage. During the calibration (1994-2002) and validation (1985-1993) periods, SWAT simulated monthly and annual stream flows with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (E) ranging from 0.67 to 0.94 and R(2) from 0.75 to 0.95. For monthly and annual NO(3) loads, E ranged from -0.16 to 0.45 and R(2) from 0.36 to 0.74. Annual maize and soybean yields were simulated with relative errors ranging from -10 to 6%. The model was then used to predict the changes in NO(3) output with N fertilizer application rates 10 to 50% lower than original application rates in UER. The calibrated SWAT predicted a 10 to 43% decrease in NO(3) export from UER and a 6 to 38% reduction in maize yield in response to the reduction in N fertilizer. The SWAT model markedly overestimated NO(3) export during major wet periods. Moreover, SWAT estimated soybean N fixation rates considerably greater than literature values, and some simulated changes in the N cycle in response to fertilizer reduction seemed to be unrealistic. Improving these aspects of SWAT could lead to more reliable predictions in the water quality outcomes of nutrient management practices in tile-drained watersheds.