Control of landscape diversity by catastrophic disturbance: A theory and a case study of fire in a Canadian boreal forest

A landscape may be envisioned as a space partitioned by a number of ecosystem types, and so it conforms to a neo-Clementsian model of succession. A corollary is that intermediate disturbance rates should maximize landscape (beta) diversity. This was confirmed using eight boreal forest landscapes in northwestern Ontario, Canada, where intermediate rates of forest fire were associated with highest landscape diversity. Because current measures of evenness subsume a richness measure, it is not, as yet, feasible to assess the relative contributions of evenness and richness to biological diversity, and thus it was not possible to determine the roles of numbers of habitat types and relative amounts of habitat types in the above situation. Both theory and observations suggest that forest fire control in fire-prone landscapes increases landscape diversity, but that it is lowered by fire control in landscapes of intermediate to low diversity.     

Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Canada's National Park System

To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated forCanada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonaltemperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling andAnalysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems andpeople. Important, widespread changes relate to marine andfreshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern andupward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combinedEast coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosionand deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic upliftnegates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individualparks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migratelakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroythe fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. Forexample: we could not form conclusions about glacial massbalance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for theEast Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.     

The effects of climate change on landscape diversity: an example in Ontario forests

The predicted increase in climate warming will have profound impacts on forest ecosystems and landscapes in Canada because of increased temperature, and altered disturbance regimes. Climate change is predicted to be variable within Canada, and to cause considerable weather variability among years. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, fire weather index (FWI) is predicted to rise over much of Ontario by 1.5 to 2 times. FWI may actually fall slightly, compared to current values, in central eastern Ontario (Abitibi), but for central-south Ontario it is expected to rise sharply by as much as 5 times current values. We predict that the combination of temperature rise and greater than average fire occurrence will result in a shrinkage of area covered by boreal forest towards the north and east; that some form of Great Lakes forest type will occupy most of central Ontario following the 5 C isotherm north; that pyrophilic species will become most common, especially jack pine and aspen; that patch sizes will initially decrease then expand resulting in considerable homogenization of forest landscapes; that there will be little 'old-growth' forest; and that landscape disequilibrium will be enhanced. If climate change occurs as rapidly as is predicted, then some species particularly those with heavy seeds may not be able to respond to the rapid changes and local extinctions are expected. Anthropogenically-altered species compositions in current forests, coupled with fire suppression over the past 50 years, may lead to forest landscapes that are different then were seen in the Holocene period, as described by paleoecological reconstructions. In particular, forests dominated by white pine in the south and black spruce in the middle north may not be common. Wildlife species that respond at the landscape level, i.e., those with body sizes >1 kg, will be most affected by changes in landscape structure. In particular we expect moose and caribou populations to decline significantly, while white-tailed deer will likely become abundant across Ontario and Quebec.     

Influence of fur trade,famine, and forest fires on moose and woodland caribou populations in northwestern Ontario from 1786 to 1911

Hudson’s Bay Company records were used to estimate the 1786–1911 annual number of moose (Alces alces andersonii) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) involved in trade by northern Ojibwa natives to the company post at Osnaburgh House (51°10′N 90°15′W) in northwest Ontario, Canada. The human population for the early 19th century, and the number and severity of human starvations from 1786 to 1911 were estimated. The extent of forest fires in the region around Osnaburgh was documented using a “fire-day” index computed from Hudson’s Bay Company journals and using qualitative archival information. It is argued that the human population was too small to have caused the observed early 19th century moose and caribou population decline solely through predation. Likewise, severe early 19th century famines were caused by climatic factors rather than by declines in moose and caribou numbers. Habitat change caused by increased forest fires correlates with the observed decline of caribou, while moose increased and subsequently collapsed as winter shelter was destroyed. A burgeoning human population, sustained during winter food shortages on potatoes donated by the Hudson’s Bay Company, then kept ungulate populations to low levels until the late 19th century. Only then did maturing forests and a new outbreak of fires provide renewed habitat for resurgences of, respectively, caribou and moose.