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We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.  相似文献   
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Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The average nutrient concentrations values presented in Table 1 on page 4 in the publication have the unit mg L?1 for the mineral nutrients Fe,...  相似文献   
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The tanning industry is one of the largest environmental polluters due to high generation waste in all production processes, but the tanning is particularly worrisome due to the use of significant amounts of chromium. Cr is an element potentially toxic to both health and the environment, depending on the concentration and the oxidation state. Cr(VI) can come in contact with human skin when using leather goods, which can cause allergies and dermatitis, besides being carcinogenic. Considering that approximately 90% of the world production of leather is performed with Cr salts, the determination of this element in leather is necessary to avoid exposure to the risks that the element can provide. The main goal of this study was the development of an alternative analytical method for the determination of Cr in leathers (ovine and bovine leather tanned with Cr and vegetable tannin) using wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence (WDXRF) for direct solid analysis. Besides performing analysis of the chemical composition and determination of Al, As, Ba, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Sr, Ti, and Zn in leather by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP OES). Principal component analysis (PCA) was also used in the evaluation of the WDXRF and ICP OES data sets. WDXRF calibration models for Cr presented satisfactory figures of merit and the analysis of the leathers revealed an alarming concentration of total Cr in the samples reaching 21,353 mg kg?1.  相似文献   
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The exploitation and degradation of natural environments exert intense pressure on important ecosystems worldwide. Thus, it is necessary developing or adapting assessment methods to monitor environmental changes and to generate results to be applied to environmental management programs. The Brazilian Veredas (phytophysiognomies typical to the Cerrado biome) are threatened by several human activities; thus, the aim of the present study is to adapt a rapid assessment protocol (RAP) to be applied to Veredas springs, by using the upper course of the Vai-e-Vem stream watershed (Ipameri County, Goiás State, Brazil). Therefore, several springs in the study site were visited and 11 of them were considered Veredas springs. After the RAP was adapted, the instrument was validated and used to environmentally assess the springs in order to demonstrate its applicability. The present study has provided an instrument of option to monitor Veredas springs.  相似文献   
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An Allee effect arising from density-dependent mating success can have significant impacts at the ecosystem level when considered in the context of predator-prey interactions. These are captured by a mathematical model for the exchange of biomass between a structured predator population (continuous weight distribution) and a resource. Because the predator’s mating success affects the amount of resources required for the production of offsprings and their future growth into mature organisms, it influences the flux of biomass between trophic levels. Under simple assumptions, the equations can be reduced to an equivalent unstructured predator-prey model in which the Allee effect modulates the predation rate: the mating probability multiplies the rate of predator growth as well as the rate of resource depletion. Implications of the Allee effect for the bifurcation structure and equilibrium densities are examined. The model is compared to a modified version in which the Allee effect instead modulates the assimilation efficiency, hence the mating probability does not appear in the dynamical equation for the resource density. Both models exhibit qualitatively similar dynamics. However, compared to the model in which the Allee effect modulates predation, the model in which the Allee effect modulates assimilation efficiency predicts (i) unrealistically inefficient resource assimilation when predator density is low, (ii) a higher risk of catastrophic extinction resulting from a change in the parameter controlling the strength of the Allee effect, and (iii) no possibility of an increase in population size when the density dependence is enhanced.  相似文献   
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Soilless culture systems offer an environmentally friendly and resource-efficient alternative to traditional cultivation systems fitting within the scheme of a circular economy. The objective of this research was to examine the sustainable integration of recycling fertilizers in hydroponic cultivation—creating a nutrient cycling concept for horticultural cultivation. Using the nutrient film technique (NFT), three recycling-based fertilizer variants were tested against standard synthetic mineral fertilization as the control, with 11 tomato plants (Solanum lycopersicum L. cv. Pannovy) per replicate (n = 4) and treatment: two nitrified urine-based fertilizers differing in ammonium/nitrate ratio (NH4+:NO3?), namely (1) “Aurin” (AUR) and (2) “Crop” (CRO); as well as (3) an organo-mineral mixture of struvite and vinasse (S+V); and (4) a control (NPK). The closed chamber method was adapted for gas fluxes (N2O, CH4, and CO2) from the root zone. There was no indication in differences of the total shoot biomass fresh matter and uptake of N, P and K between recycling fertilizers and the control. Marketable fruit yield was comparable between NPK, CRO and S+V, whereas lower yields occurred in AUR. The higher NH4+:NO3? of AUR was associated with an increased susceptibility of blossom-end-rot, likely due to reduced uptake and translocation of Ca. Highest sugar concentration was found in S+V, which may have been influenced by the presence of organic acids in vinasse. N2O emissions were highest in S+V, which corresponded to our hypothesis that N2O emissions positively correlate with organic-C input by the fertilizer amendments. Remaining treatments showed barely detectable GHG emissions. A nitrified urine with a low NH4+:NO3 (e.g., CRO) has a high potential as recycling fertilizer in NFT systems for tomato cultivation, and S+V proved to supply sufficient P and K for adequate growth and yield. Alternative cultivation strategies may complement the composition of AUR.

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Summary The orientation of golden hamsters during their return from a food source at the centre of an experimental arena to their nest at the arena's periphery was examined. The experiments took place under different visual conditions and involved conflicting spatial information, which the animal could collect either en route, during the outward journey to the food source, or on site, at the point of departure of the return trip. When the arena and nest box were rotated before the start of the trial (so that the hamsters started the outward journey from different points in absolute space), the animals returned directly to the point of departure of each particular hoarding trip when tested under infra-red light. Deprived of visual cues, they resorted to route-based information, i.e. they depended on the registration and computation of cues which had been generated during the outward journey. If tested under the ordinary room lights, the animals returned in a constant direction towards the usual location of the nest box, but with slight deviations towards the changing point in space where they had initiated each hoarding trip. They therefore relied mainly on stable location-based features from the distant visual background which they had associated with the standard location of the nest entrance; at the same time, however, they were also influenced by information derived from the outward journey. If exposed to a weak light source from outside the arena, the animals' homing behaviour reflected the simultaneous influence of three categories of information: (a) The light as a stable, location-based cue which the subjects had associated with the usual location of the nest; (b) the registration of the previous outward journey by means of internal (idiothetic) path-dependent variables; and (c) the registration of the previous outward journey using the light as visual reference. These results illustrate the interplay and functional hierarchy of various categories of spatial information which the hamster, active at dusk and at night, can use in laboratory conditions as well as in its natural habitat.  相似文献   
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