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Impact of Climate Change on Possible Scenarios for Egyptian Agriculture in the Future 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
El-Shaer H. M. Rosenzweig C. Iglesias A. Eid M. H. Hillel D. 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》1997,1(3):233-250
If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and
serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the
primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying
development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference
crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased
CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not
compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such
as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management,
and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural
production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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