Estimation bias under model selection for distance sampling detection functions

Many simulation studies have examined the properties of distance sampling estimators of wildlife population size. When assumptions hold, if distances are generated from a detection model and fitted using the same model, they are known to perform well. However, in practice, the true model is unknown. Therefore, standard practice includes model selection, typically using model comparison tools like Akaike Information Criterion. Here we examine the performance of standard distance sampling estimators under model selection. We compare line and point transect estimators with distances simulated from two detection functions, hazard-rate and exponential power series (EPS), over a range of sample sizes. To mimic the real-world context where the true model may not be part of the candidate set, EPS models were not included as candidates, except for the half-normal parameterization. We found median bias depended on sample size (being asymptotically unbiased) and on the form of the true detection function: negative bias (up to 15% for line transects and 30% for point transects) when the shoulder of maximum detectability was narrow, and positive bias (up to 10% for line transects and 15% for point transects) when it was wide. Generating unbiased simulations requires careful choice of detection function or very large datasets. Practitioners should collect data that result in detection functions with a shoulder similar to a half-normal and use the monotonicity constraint. Narrow-shouldered detection functions can be avoided through good field procedures and those with wide shoulder are unlikely to occur, due to heterogeneity in detectability.     

Salinity variations in the water resources fed by the Etnean volcanic aquifers (Sicily, Italy): natural vs. anthropogenic causes

In this paper, in an attempt to reveal possible changes connected to natural or anthropogenic causes, the main results of hydrogeochemical monitoring carried out at Mount Etna are evaluated. We report on the salinity contents of the groundwaters that flow in fractured volcanics, which make up the flanks of the volcano. These waters, analyzed for major ion chemistry, were sampled regularly from 1994 to 2004. Basing on nonparametric Sen??s slope estimator, time series of groundwater composition reveal that the salinity of most of the Etnean aquifers increased by 0.5% to 3.5% each year during this period. This change in the water chemistry is clearly referable to the overexploitation of the aquifers. This increasing trend needs to be inverted urgently; otherwise, it will cause a shortage of water in the near future, because the maximum admissible concentration of salinity for drinking water will be exceeded.     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Concrete made with recycled tire rubber: Effect of alkaline activation and silica fume addition

The present work deals with the investigation of the potential use of recycled tire rubbers in cement matrices. This facilitates the development of concrete with a lesser environmental impact. Thus, it contributes to developing construction in a sustainable way. Concrete formulations were produced with the replacement of 10% sand aggregate by recycled tire rubber using conventional rubber and rubber modified with alkaline activation and silica fume addition to improve the mechanical properties. The water/cement ratio (or composition) and the testing age were used as additional variables. The concrete characterization was performed by testing the compressive strength, elastic modulus, density and microstructure (SEM). The recycled tire rubber proved to be an excellent aggregate to use in the concrete. It was observed that its compressive strength was reduced by only 14% (28 days), in comparison to the conventional concrete, reaching 48 MPa for the mixture with higher resistance. The concrete compositions were found to be lighter and a reduced interface was observed between the rubber and cement matrix after the chemical treatment. The rubberized concrete can support construction sustainability, minimize the consumption of natural resources by using an industrial residue and produce a material with special features.     

Elemental and isotopic determination of lead (Pb) in particulate matter in the Brazilian city of Goiânia (GO) using ICP-MS technique

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The toxic metal lead (Pb) can be harmful to human health in various manners, but is also considered as a distinguished tracer of environmental...     

An urban emissions inventory for South America and its application in numerical modeling of atmospheric chemical composition at local and regional scales

This work describes the development of an urban vehicle emissions inventory for South America, based on the analysis and aggregation of available inventories for major cities, with emphasis on its application in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling. Due to the limited number of available local inventories, urban emissions were extrapolated based on the correlation between city vehicle density and mobile source emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Emissions were geographically distributed using a methodology that delimits urban areas using high spatial resolution remote sensing products. This numerical algorithm enabled a more precise representation of urban centers. The derived regional inventory was evaluated by analyzing the performance of a chemical weather forecast model in relation to observations of CO, NOx and O₃ in two different urban areas, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. The gas mixing ratios simulated using the proposed regional inventory show good agreement with observations, consistently representing their hourly and daily variability. These results show that the integration of municipal inventories in a regional emissions map and their precise distribution in fine scale resolutions are important tools in regional atmospheric chemistry modeling.     

Sustainability indicators in the swine industry of the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina

In recent decades, there has been a growing concern about measuring and evaluating the results of intensive production practices, such as the mode of integration practiced on a large scale by agro-industries. The present study discusses the application and the results of a Sustainability Indicators System in the context of the swine industry in the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina. These indicators, focused on the level of sustainability maturity, can be used as a way to diagnose and compare the efficiency of the industry from a broader perspective. The research findings indicate that most of the pig farms that have been studied can be classified as “in search of sustainability or sustainable.” Nevertheless, there are differences among the dimensions and between the most ranked farms and the others which must be considered for a better design and application of public policies and company strategies toward an effective and balanced social, economic and environmental sustainability.     

Darwin’s “tug-of-war” vs. starlings’ “horse-racing”: how adaptations for sequential encounters drive simultaneous choice

Charles Darwin aided his private decision making by an explicit deliberation, famously deciding whether or not to marry by creating a list of points in a table with two columns: “Marry” and “Not Marry”. One hundred seventy-two years after Darwin’s wedding, we reconsider whether this process of choice, under which individuals assign values to their options and compare their relative merits at the time of choosing (the tug-of-war model), applies to our experimental animal, the European Starling, Sturnus vulgaris. We contrast this with the sequential choice model that postulates that decision-makers make no comparison between options at the time of choice. According to the latter, behaviour in simultaneous choices reflects adaptations to contexts with sequential encounters, in which the choice is whether to take an opportunity or let it pass. We postulate that, in sequential encounters, the decision-maker assigns (by learning) a subjective value to each option, reflecting its payoff relative to background opportunities. This value is expressed as latency and/or probability to accept each opportunity as opposed to keep searching. In simultaneous encounters, choice occurs through each option being processed independently, by a race between the mechanisms that generate option-specific latencies. We describe these alternative models and review data supporting the predictions of the sequential choice model.     

Amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis as a routine tool to assess toxicant driven changes in hindgut bacterial populations of Porcellio dilatatus (Crustacea: Isopoda)

Changes in saprophytic organism's gut microbial communities may present a threat to organic matter breakdown which can ultimately lead to soil function impairment. In this study, Amplified Ribosomal DNA Restriction Analysis (ARDRA) was evaluated as a potential simple molecular tool to assess shifts in bacterial community structure in hindgut populations of Porcellio dilatatus exposed to contaminated food. This prospective tool can also be used for a variety of purposes and samples prior to the use of more specific and sophisticated methods.