Integrated scenario modelling of energy,greenhouse gas emissions and forestry

Preventing dangerous climate change requires actions on several sectors. Mitigation strategies have focused primarily on energy, because fossil fuels are the main source of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Another important sector recently gaining more attention is the forest sector. Deforestation is responsible for approximately one fifth of the global emissions, while growing forests sequester and store significant amounts of carbon. Because energy and forest sectors and climate change are highly interlinked, their interactions need to be analysed in an integrated framework in order to better understand the consequences of different actions and policies, and find the most effective means to reduce emissions. This paper presents a model, which integrates energy use, forests and greenhouse gas emissions and describes the most important linkages between them. The model is applied for the case of Finland, where integrated analyses are of particular importance due to the abundant forest resources, major forest carbon sink and strong linkage with the energy sector. However, the results and their implications are discussed in a broader perspective. The results demonstrate how full integration of all net emissions into climate policy could increase the economic efficiency of climate change mitigation. Our numerical scenarios showed that enhancing forest carbon sinks would be a more cost-efficient mitigation strategy than using forests for bioenergy production, which would imply a lower sink. However, as forest carbon stock projections involve large uncertainties, their full integration to emission targets can introduce new and notable risks for mitigation strategies.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Global warming potential factors and warming payback time as climate indicators of forest biomass use

A method is presented for estimating the global warming impact of forest biomass life cycles with respect to their functionally equivalent alternatives based on fossil fuels and non-renewable material sources. In the method, absolute global warming potentials (AGWP) of both the temporary carbon (C) debt of forest biomass stock and the C credit of the biomass use cycle displacing the fossil and non-renewable alternative are estimated as a function of the time frame of climate change mitigation. Dimensionless global warming potential (GWP) factors, GWP_bio and GWP_biouse, are derived. As numerical examples, 1) bioenergy from boreal forest harvest residues to displace fossil fuels and 2) the use of wood for material substitution are considered. The GWP-based indicator leads to longer payback times, i.e. the time frame needed for the biomass option to be superior to its fossil-based alternative, than when just the cumulative balance of biogenic and fossil C stocks is considered. The warming payback time increases substantially with the residue diameter and low displacement factor (DF) of fossil C emissions. For the 35-cm stumps, the payback time appears to be more than 100 years in the climate conditions of Southern Finland when DF is lower than 0.5 in instant use and lower than 0.6 in continuous stump use. Wood use for construction appears to be more beneficial because, in addition to displaced emissions due to by-product bioenergy and material substitution, a significant part of round wood is sequestered into wood products for a long period, and even a zero payback time would be attainable with reasonable DFs.     

ToSIA—A tool for sustainability impact assessment of forest-wood-chains

Within the forest sector, the sustainability concept has evolved from a narrow focus on sustainable wood production to a much broader evaluation of environmental, social, and economic sustainability for whole value chains. A new software tool - ToSIA - has been developed for assessing sustainability impacts of Forest-Wood-Chains (FWCs). In the approach, FWCs are defined as chains of production processes (e.g. harvesting-transport-industrial processing), which are linked with products (e.g. a timber frame house). Sustainability is determined by analysing environmental, economic, and social sustainability indicators for all the production processes along the FWC. The tool calculates sustainability values as products of the relative indicator values (i.e. indicator value expressed per unit of material flow) multiplied with the material flow entering the process. Calculated sustainability values are then aggregated for the segments of the FWC or for the complete chain. The sustainability impact assessment requires carefully specified system boundaries. ToSIA uses a data-oriented approach that is very flexible in the focus of the analysis and the selection of indicators of sustainability. An example of alternative Norway spruce management systems in Southern Germany and their effects on six sustainability indicators is presented. The less intensive management system with natural regeneration and motor-manual harvesting shows higher carbon storage and slightly less energy use. It creates more employment and higher labour costs, but the average rate of accidents is also higher. ToSIA offers a transparent and consistent methodological framework to assess sustainability impacts in the forest-based sector as affected, e.g. by changes in policies, market conditions, or technology. The paper discusses strengths and limitations of the approach and provides an outlook on further development perspectives of the methodology.     

MSWI BA treated with Advanced Dry Recovery: a field scale study on materials’ leaching properties

In many European countries, the environmental properties of waste-derived aggregates are mostly assessed based on laboratory leaching tests such as the standardised percolation tests CEN/TS/14405, ISO/TS 21268-3, or DIN 19528. These tests are conducted under specified conditions, which are similar yet somewhat different from realistic field conditions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the leaching properties of ADR (Advanced Dry Recovery) recovered MSWI BA in the field in order to understand more about its environmental impacts in actual civil engineering structures. Two field scale studies (a lysimeter and a larger interim storage field study) were constructed and the leachate quality was investigated. These results were then complemented with the results of previously conducted laboratory leaching tests using a liquid to solid ratio (L kg^?1) comparison. The results demonstrated that the leaching behaviours of many potentially harmful substances, such as chloride, copper and antimony, was similar despite the study scale. In addition, this study illustrated the importance of investigating the leaching properties of waste-derived aggregates on a larger scale, even though the uncertainties in such studies may not be easily controlled.     

Strategic accident reduction in an energy company and its resulting financial benefits

This study provides a case example of an energy company that prioritized occupational safety and health and accident reduction as long-term, strategic development targets. Furthermore, this study describes the monetary benefits of this strategic decision. Company-specific accident indicators and monetary costs and benefits are evaluated. During the observation period (2010–2016), strategic investments in occupational safety and health cost the company EUR 0.8 million. However, EUR 1.8 million were saved in the same period, resulting in a 2.20 cost–benefit ratio. The trend in cost savings is strongly positive. Annual accident costs were EUR 0.4 million lower in 2016 compared to costs in 2010. This study demonstrates that long-term, strategic commitment to occupational safety and health provides monetary value.     

Sediment-based investigation of naturally or historically eutrophic lakes -- implications for lake management

Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive will call for new lake monitoring and management strategies. Therefore, different methods need to be tested in order to achieve reliable assessment of lake background conditions and water quality. Sediment-based techniques provide one such tool for lake management. In this work, 10 lakes, presumed to be naturally eutrophic, were investigated with a paleolimnological short core study. The aim of the study was to examine the composition of the diatom assemblages in their natural state, estimate their change over time and assess the background nutrient levels. One sediment profile from each lake was divided into six sub-samples that were analyzed for diatoms (60 samples). Diatom-based inference models were applied to reconstruct the past total phosphorus concentration and assess the eutrophication. The results indicated that all the lakes studied had already been nutrient-rich before the impact of modern agriculture. However, diatom assemblages have changed remarkably over time and total phosphorus concentrations have generally increased, so at present only two of the study lakes are close to their natural status. This suggests that naturally eutrophic lakes will probably require management actions to fulfill the new directive requirements in the future.     

Experimental test of parasitism hypothesis for population cycles of a forest lepidopteran

Population cycles of herbivores are thought to be driven by trophic interaction mechanisms, either between food plant and herbivore or between the herbivorous prey and its natural enemies. Observational data have indicated that hymenopteran parasitoids cause delayed density-dependent mortality in cyclic autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) populations. We experimentally tested the parasitism hypothesis of moth population cycles by establishing a four-year parasitoid-exclusion experiment, with parasitoid-proof exclosures, parasitoid-permeable exclosures, and control plots. The exclusion of parasitoids led to high autumnal moth abundances, while the declining abundance in both the parasitoid-permeable exclosures and the control plots paralleled the naturally declining density in the study area and could be explained by high rates of parasitism. Our results provide firm experimental support for the hypothesis that hymenopteran parasitoids have a causal relationship with the delayed density-dependent component required in the generation of autumnal moth population cycles.