Modelling Temperature Trends in New Zealand

If global warming is accelerating, then one might expect temperatures for most stations to be accelerating and perhaps variability to be increasing. In this study, we examine 57 New Zealand temperature time series for evidence of non-linearity and changing variability. These correspond to time series for annual minima, annual means and annual maxima for 19 stations. Estimation is by an extended least-squares method. We find a surprising diversity of behaviour of these series – presumably reflecting their different geographic factors as well as series length. We give evidence of regions where temperatures are decreasing. For series where a linear trend is significant, it is downwards in about one third of the cases. This proportion was higher in the South Island, especially for series of minima. Where a non-linear trend is significant, temperatures are decelerating in about one half of the cases. The ratio of downward to upward trends is highest among annual maxima and South Island minima and smallest in annual means. Where a linear trend in the variability is significant, it is decreasing in 13 cases and increasing in 5 cases, although possibly this is partly due to poorer quality data last century. Where a non-linear trend in the variability is significant, variability is decelerating in about two thirds of the cases. The results are used to project upper and lower return levels of minima, means and maxima for each of the series to the year 2010.     

Nutrient losses by surface run-off following the application of organic manures to arable land. 2. Phosphorus

Phosphorus (P) surface run-off losses were studied following organic manure applications to land, utilising a purpose-built facility on a sloping site in Herefordshire under arable tillage. Different rates and timing of cattle slurry, farm yard manure (FYM) and inorganic nitrogen (N) and P fertiliser were compared, over a 4-year period (1993-97). N losses from the same studies are reported in a separate paper. The application of cattle FYM and, especially slurry, to the silty clay loam soil increased both particulate and soluble P loss in surface water flow. Losses via subsurface flow (30 cm interflow) were consistently much lower than via surface water movement and were generally unaffected by treatment. Increased application of slurry solids increased all forms of P loss via surface run-off; the results suggested that a threshold for greatly increased risk of P losses via this route, as for N, occurred at ca. 2.5-3.0 t/ha solids loading. This approximates to the 50 m3/ha application rate limit suggested for slurry within UK 'good agricultural practice'. The studies also provided circumstantial evidence of the sealing of the soil surface by slurry solids as the major mechanism by which polluting surface run-off may occur following slurry application on susceptible soils. Losses of total and soluble P, recorded for each of the 4 years of experiments, reached a maximum of only up to 2 kg/ha total P (TP), even after slurry applications initiating run-off. Whilst these losses are insignificant in agronomic terms, peak concentrations of P (up to 30,000 micrograms/l TP) in surface water during a run-off event, could be of considerable concern in sensitive catchments. Losses of slurry P via surface run-off could make a significant contribution to accelerated eutrophication on entry to enclosed waters, particularly when combined with high concentrations of NO3(-)-N. Restricting slurry application rates to those consistent with good agronomic practice, and within the limits specified in existing guidelines on good agricultural practice, offers the simplest and most effective control measure against this potentially important source of diffuse pollution.     

Streamwater phosphorus and nitrogen across a gradient in rural–agricultural land use intensity

This paper provides an overview of the impacts of rural land use on lowland streamwater phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) concentrations and P loads and sources in lowland streams. Based on weekly water quality monitoring, the impacts of agriculture on streamwater P and N hydrochemistry were examined along a gradient of rural–agricultural land use, by monitoring three sets of ‘paired’ (near-adjacent) rural headwater streams, draining catchments which are representative of the major geology, soil types and rural/agricultural land use types of large areas of lowland Britain. The magnitude and timing of P and N inputs were assessed and the load apportionment model (LAM) was applied to quantify ‘continuous’ (point) source and ‘flow-dependent’ (diffuse) source contributions of P to these headwater streams. The results show that intensive arable farming had only a comparatively small impact on streamwater total phosphorus (TP loads), with highly consistent stream diffuse-source TP yields of ca. 0.5 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for the predominantly arable catchments with both clay and loam soils, compared with 0.4 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1 for low agricultural intensity grassland/woodland on similar soil types. In contrast, intensive livestock farming on heavy clay soils resulted in dramatically higher stream diffuse-source TP yields of 2 kg-P ha^?1 year^?1. The streamwater hydrochemistry of the livestock-dominated catchment was characterised by high concentrations of organic P, C and N fractions, associated with manure and slurry sources. Across the study sites, the impacts of human settlement were clearly identifiable with effluent inputs from septic tanks and sewage treatment works resulting in large-scale increases in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) loads and concentrations. At sites heavily impacted by rural settlements, SRP concentrations under baseflow conditions reached several hundred μg-P L^?1. Load apportionment modelling demonstrated significant ‘point-source’ P inputs to the streams even where there were no sewage treatment works within the upstream catchment. This indicates that, even in sparsely populated rural headwater catchments, small settlements and even isolated groups of houses are sufficient to cause significant nutrient pollution and that septic tank systems serving these rural communities are actually operating as multiple point sources, rather than a diffuse input.     

Future agriculture with minimized phosphorus losses to waters: Research needs and direction

The series of papers in this issue of AMBIO represent technical presentations made at the 7th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW7), held in September, 2013 in Uppsala, Sweden. At that meeting, the 150 delegates were involved in round table discussions on major, predetermined themes facing the management of agricultural phosphorus (P) for optimum production goals with minimal water quality impairment. The six themes were (1) P management in a changing world; (2) transport pathways of P from soil to water; (3) monitoring, modeling, and communication; (4) importance of manure and agricultural production systems for P management; (5) identification of appropriate mitigation measures for reduction of P loss; and (6) implementation of mitigation strategies to reduce P loss. This paper details the major challenges and research needs that were identified for each theme and identifies a future roadmap for catchment management that cost-effectively minimizes P loss from agricultural activities.     

Quantifying phosphorus retention and release in rivers and watersheds using extended end-member mixing analysis (E-EMMA)

Extended end-member mixing analysis (E-EMMA) is presented as a novel empirical method for exploring phosphorus (P) retention and release in rivers and watersheds, as an aid to water-quality management. E-EMMA offers a simple and versatile tool that relies solely on routinely measured P concentration and flow data. E-EMMA was applied to two river systems: the Thames (U.K.) and Sandusky River (U.S.), which drain similar watershed areas but have contrasting dominant P sources and hydrology. For both the Thames and Sandusky, P fluxes at the watershed outlets were strongly influenced by processes that retain and cycle P. However, patterns of P retention were markedly different for the two rivers, linked to differences in P sources and speciation, hydrology and land use. On an annual timescale, up to 48% of the P flux was retained for the Sandusky and up to 14% for the Thames. Under ecologically critical low-flow periods, up to 93% of the P flux was retained for the Sandusky and up to 42% for the Thames. In the main River Thames and the Sandusky River, in-stream processes under low flows were capable of regulating the delivery of P and modifying the timing of delivery in a way that may help to reduce ecological impacts to downstream river reaches, by reducing ambient P concentrations at times of greatest river eutrophication risk. The results also suggest that by moving toward cleaner rivers and improved ecosystem health, the efficiency of P retention may actually increase.     

Stream-bed phosphorus in paired catchments with different agricultural land use intensity

Stream-bed sediments from three paired catchments, each draining a lower agricultural intensity system and a higher agricultural intensity system, were analysed for (a) total P (TP), (b) bioavailable-P (Resin-P), (c) equilibrium phosphorus concentration (EPC₀), and (d) degree of phosphorus saturation (DPS). The influence of agriculture on sediment P was explored within the context of other key variables that may control the sediment P concentrations such as particle size, Fe, Ca and organic matter content, and in terms of potential implications of sediment P to in-stream biota. TP concentrations, EPC₀, and the proportion of fine sediment were highest at the sites with the greater agricultural impact. Higher concentrations of bioavailable-P were also found in higher intensity agricultural systems. However, the highest concentrations of bioavailable-P were found at sites with point source inputs. Sites with high Fe concentrations had higher TP concentrations relative to agricultural intensity, but also had lower DPS values, illustrating that the sediment still had the capacity to take up P in a strongly bound form. The results from this study show that higher risk agricultural practices (intensive arable production and dairy and beef production) can lead either directly, or indirectly through increased inputs of fine sediment, to increased sediment TP concentrations. The importance of geochemical and physical controls on the bed sediments’ capacity to mitigate high P inputs in headwater lowland streams, especially under low flows and times of eutrophication risk in spring and summer is illustrated.     

A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

Stewardship to tackle global phosphorus inefficiency: The case of Europe

The inefficient use of phosphorus (P) in the food chain is a threat to the global aquatic environment and the health and well-being of citizens, and it is depleting an essential finite natural resource critical for future food security and ecosystem function. We outline a strategic framework of 5R stewardship (Re-align P inputs, Reduce P losses, Recycle P in bioresources, Recover P in wastes, and Redefine P in food systems) to help identify and deliver a range of integrated, cost-effective, and feasible technological innovations to improve P use efficiency in society and reduce Europe’s dependence on P imports. Their combined adoption facilitated by interactive policies, co-operation between upstream and downstream stakeholders (researchers, investors, producers, distributors, and consumers), and more harmonized approaches to P accounting would maximize the resource and environmental benefits and help deliver a more competitive, circular, and sustainable European economy. The case of Europe provides a blueprint for global P stewardship.     

Some costs of reproduction for male bushcrickets,Requena verticalis (Orthoptera : Tettigoniidae) allocating resources to mate attraction and nuptial feeding

Summary The cost of reproductive effort is known to result in a trade-off between current and future reproduction. Similarly, trade-offs in energy allocation may occur between components of reproductive effort, mating and parental effort, within a single reproductive episode. We investigated the energy allocated to mating effort (calling to attract females) and parental effort (donation of spermatophore nutrients at mating) by male bushcrickets, Requena verticalis, under two dietary regimes. Males provided with a low quality diet reduced the daily energy allocated to calling activity while maintaining their investment in spermatophores. Males provided with a high quality diet did not allocate more resources per day to their spermatophores but stored excess energy for future reproduction. Thus, on a per day basis, males appear to hold constant their investment in the spermatophore at the cost of reduced mating effort when resources are limited. Males on both diets, however, increased the size of their spermatophore donations when the interval between female encounters was increased. One explanation for this pattern could be a frequency-dependent optimization of spermatophore size. Correspondence to: L.W. Simmons