Two Hundred Years of Local Avian Extinctions in Eastern Amazonia

Local, regional, and global extinctions caused by habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation have been widely reported for the tropics. The patterns and drivers of this loss of species are now increasingly well known in Amazonia, but there remains a significant gap in understanding of long‐term trends in species persistence and extinction in anthropogenic landscapes. Such a historical perspective is critical for understanding the status and trends of extant biodiversity as well as for identifying priorities to halt further losses. Using extensive historical data sets of specimen records and results of contemporary surveys, we searched for evidence of local extinctions of a terra firma rainforest avifauna over 200 years in a 2500 km² eastern Amazonian region around the Brazilian city of Belém. This region has the longest history of ornithological fieldwork in the entire Amazon basin and lies in the highly threatened Belém Centre of Endemism. We also compared our historically inferred extinction events with extensive data on species occurrences in a sample of catchments in a nearby municipality (Paragominas) that encompass a gradient of past forest loss. We found evidence for the possible extinction of 47 species (14% of the regional species pool) that were unreported from 1980 to 2013 (80% last recorded between 1900 and 1980). Seventeen species appear on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, and many of these are large‐bodied. The species lost from the region immediately around Belém are similar to those which are currently restricted to well‐forested catchments in Paragominas. Although we anticipate the future rediscovery or recolonization of some species inferred to be extinct by our calculations, we also expect that there are likely to be additional local extinctions, not reported here, given the ongoing loss and degradation of remaining areas of native vegetation across eastern Amazonia. Doscientos Años de Extinciones Locales de Aves en la Amazonia Oriental     

Chilean Blue Whales as a Case Study to Illustrate Methods to Estimate Abundance and Evaluate Conservation Status of Rare Species

Abstract: Often abundance of rare species cannot be estimated with conventional design‐based methods, so we illustrate with a population of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) a spatial model‐based method to estimate abundance. We analyzed data from line‐transect surveys of blue whales off the coast of Chile, where the population was hunted to low levels. Field protocols allowed deviation from planned track lines to collect identification photographs and tissue samples for genetic analyses, which resulted in an ad hoc sampling design with increased effort in areas of higher densities. Thus, we used spatial modeling methods to estimate abundance. Spatial models are increasingly being used to analyze data from surveys of marine, aquatic, and terrestrial species, but estimation of uncertainty from such models is often problematic. We developed a new, broadly applicable variance estimator that showed there were likely 303 whales (95% CI 176–625) in the study area. The survey did not span the whales' entire range, so this is a minimum estimate. We estimated current minimum abundance relative to pre‐exploitation abundance (i.e., status) with a population dynamics model that incorporated our minimum abundance estimate, likely population growth rates from a meta‐analysis of rates of increase in large baleen whales, and two alternative assumptions about historic catches. From this model, we estimated that the population was at a minimum of 9.5% (95% CI 4.9–18.0%) of pre‐exploitation levels in 1998 under one catch assumption and 7.2% (CI 3.7–13.7%) of pre‐exploitation levels under the other. Thus, although Chilean blue whales are probably still at a small fraction of pre‐exploitation abundance, even these minimum abundance estimates demonstrate that their status is better than that of Antarctic blue whales, which are still <1% of pre‐exploitation population size. We anticipate our methods will be broadly applicable in aquatic and terrestrial surveys for rarely encountered species, especially when the surveys are intended to maximize encounter rates and estimate abundance.     

Releasing Adults versus Young in Reintroductions: Interactions between Demography and Genetics

Abstract:  We integrated genetics and demography into population modeling in the context of species restorations, in which both the origin of released individuals and the management strategy may influence the success of introduction. Through an explicit individual-based simulation approach, we investigated the effects of the age of released individuals by exploring the relative merits of releasing juveniles or adults to establish populations. We included the effect of genetic variability responsible for inbreeding depression and mutational meltdown. Our general analysis uncovered an interaction between the age of founders and the extent of intrapopulation fitness variability, which substantially influenced the efficiency of selection in populations founded by juveniles and had subsequent positive consequences for long-term persistence compared with the case in which adults were released. We then applied the model to the case of the reintroduction of the Griffon Vulture ( Gyps fulvus fulvus ) to southern France, for which post-release data were available. The demographic aspects of this reintroduction were already analyzed and published, suggesting that it is more efficient to release adults than juveniles, despite an observed reduction of demographic parameters following the release of adults. In that context, the inclusion of genetic considerations qualitatively changes the conclusion, predicting reduced long-term extinction risk if juveniles rather than adults are released.     

Lomborg and the Litany of Biodiversity Crisis: What the Peer-Reviewed Literature Says

Abstract:  Lomborg's (2001) book has generated passionate discussion about the state of the global environment. We performed a bibliometric evaluation of the peer-reviewed primary scientific literature to determine whether there is any consistent evidence that "things are getting better." The global literature primarily reported negative impacts on biodiversity caused by human actions, although Europe appeared to be doing better than the rest of the world. These results cannot be explained by publication bias alone because rejection rates of papers indicating improvements in the environment would have to be unrealistically high to change our results. There were nonrandom distributions of papers showing environmental recovery in developed countries and for ecosystems not strongly subjected to conservation-development conflicts. Although the literature did not paint a picture of universal gloom, the empirical evidence clearly showed growing environmental crises.     

Functional Homogenization Effect of Urbanization on Bird Communities

Abstract:  We studied the community richness and dynamics of birds in landscapes recently affected by urbanization to test the prediction that biotic communities living in degraded landscapes are increasingly composed of generalist species. We analyzed bird communities in 657 plots monitored by the French Breeding Bird Survey from 2001 to 2005, accounting for the probability of species detection and spatial autocorrelation. We used an independent land-cover program to assess urbanization intensity in each FBBS plot, from 1992 to 2002. We found that urbanization induced community homogenization and that populations of specialist species became increasingly unstable with increasing urbanization of the landscape. Our results emphasize that urbanization has a substantial impact on the spatial component of communities and highlight the destabilizing effect of urbanization on communities over time. These results illustrate that urbanization may be a strong driving force in functional community composition and that measuring community homogenization is a powerful tool in the assessment of the effects of landscape changes and thus aides sustainable urban planning.