Regulation of parental effort in a long-lived seabird an experimental manipulation of the cost of reproduction in the antarctic petrel,Thalassoica antarctica

Summary The fitness of a parent in an altricial bird species is likely to be a function of the proportion of resources allocated to offspring production in relation to the amount spent on its own survival. Here we report an experiment on the Antarctic petrel in which we manipulated the costs of rearing an offspring by placing small lead loads on the legs of one parent. The bird could then either decrease its own body reserves or reduce the food load to the chick. The manipulated birds decreased their food load and increased the feeding interval, compared with unmanipulated birds. Consequently, the rate of chick loss increased. No significant difference was found between the body weights of experimental and control birds during the experiment.Publication no. 113 from the Norwegian Antarctic Research Expedition (NARE) 1989/90 Correspondence to: B.-E. Sæther     

The length of growing season and adult sex ratio affect sexual size dimorphism in moose

While factors affecting body growth have been extensively studied, very little is known about the factors likely to affect the sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in polygynous mammals. Based on the carcass mass of 24420 male and female moose recorded in 14 Norwegian populations, we examine three hypotheses to explain geographical variation in SSD. First, SSD is expected to decrease when the relative density of animals (for a given habitat quality) increases, because resource limitation at high population densities is assumed to affect body growth of males more than females. Second, because males are selected to invest in growth more than females, environmental seasonality and related improvement of the forage quality during the short and intense growing season are expected to increase SSD. Third, by decreasing the proportion of adult males in the population, resulting in start of rutting earlier in life, hunting may decrease the SSD by increasing the reproductive cost of young males. We found that males grew faster and for a longer time of their life than did females and thus were heavier (-24%) when they reached adulthood. Sexual size dimorphism was independent of density but was higher in areas with short growing seasons. The low SSD in populations with largely adult female-biased sex ratios (males per female) shows that male body growth decreases with a decreasing proportion of adult males in the population. Our results indicate that geographical variation in moose SSD is influenced by divergent responses in the sexes to ecological factors affecting body growth.     

Estimation of population parameters from aerial counts of North American mallards: a cautionary tale.

The accuracy of population estimates strongly interferes with our ability to obtain unbiased estimates of population parameters based on analyses of time series of population fluctuations. Here we use long-term data on fluctuations in the size of Mallard populations collected as part of the May Breeding Waterfowl Survey covering a large section of North America. We assume a log-linear model of density dependence and use a hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach in which all parameters are assumed to be realizations from a common underlying distribution. Thus, parameters for different populations are not allowed to vary independently of each other. We then simulated independent time series of aerial counts, using the estimated parameters and adding various levels of observation error. These simulations showed that the estimates of stochastic population growth rate and strength of density dependence were biased even when moderate sampling errors were present. In contrast, the estimates of the environmental stochasticity and the carrying capacity were unbiased even for short time series and large observation error. Our results underline the importance of reducing the magnitude of sampling error in the design of large-scale monitoring programs of population fluctuations.     

A general model for analyzing Taylor's spatial scaling laws

Taylor's spatial scaling law concerns the relation between the variance and the mean population counts within areas of a given size. For a range of area sizes, the log of the variance often is an approximately linear function of the mean with a slope between 1 and 2, depending on the range of areas considered. In this paper, we investigate this relationship theoretically for random quadrat samples within a large area. The model makes a distinction between the local point process determining the position of each individual and the population density described by a spatial covariance function. The local point process and the spatial covariance of population density both contribute to the general relationship between the mean and the variance in which the slope may begin at 1, increase to 2, and decrease to 1 again. It is demonstrated by an example that the slope theoretically may exceed 2 by a small amount for very regular patterns that generate spatial covariance functions that increase in certain intervals. We also show how properties of population dynamics in space and time determine this relationship.     

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.     

Body mass and parental decisions in the Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica : how long should the parents guard the chick?

In Procellariiformes, the parents guard the chick after it has attained homeothermy. This strategy may reduce the probability that a small chick is taken by predators, but is costly as only one parent can forage at a time. The decision to leave the chick may therefore be a compromise between the chick's vulnerability to predators, the body condition of the parent on the nest and whether the foraging parent returns in time. We studied how the number of days that parents guarded the chick was related to the body mass of the parent at the nest and the time the foraging parent spent at sea in the Antarctic petrel Thalassoica antarctica. We also examined how the body mass of the parent on the nest and the duration of the foraging trips influenced the chicks' body condition at the end of the guarding period. When the foraging parent did not return to the nest in time to relieve its mate, the number of days the parent on the nest kept guarding the chick was positively related to its body mass on arrival in the colony. The number of days the foraging parent spent at sea was positively related to the body mass of its mate, but those that returned in time had a shorter stay at sea relative to their mate's body mass than those that did not return before their mate had left. Apparently, both the body mass of the parent at the nest and the ability of the foraging parent to adjust its stay at sea to the mate's body mass is important for the number of days the parents guard the chick and also the chick's body condition at this point. The inability to return to the nest before the mate has left may be the result of needing a minimum amount of time at sea to find food, or because some parents having low foraging success and therefore prolong their stay at sea. Received: 10 October 1997 / Accepted after revision: 14 March 1998     

Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment

Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.