Searching for Networks: Ecological Connectivity for Amphibians Under Climate Change

Environmental Management - Ecological connectivity depends on key elements within the landscape, which can support ecological fluxes, species richness and long-term viability of a biological...     

Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Forest fires and adaptation options in Europe

This paper presents a quantitative assessment of adaptation options in the context of forest fires in Europe under projected climate change. A standalone fire model (SFM) based on a state-of-the-art large-scale forest fire modelling algorithm is used to explore fuel removal through prescribed burnings and improved fire suppression as adaptation options. The climate change projections are provided by three climate models reflecting the SRES A2 scenario. The SFM’s modelled burned areas for selected test countries in Europe show satisfying agreement with observed data coming from two different sources (European Forest Fire Information System and Global Fire Emissions Database). Our estimation of the potential increase in burned areas in Europe under “no adaptation” scenario is about 200 % by 2090 (compared with 2000–2008). The application of prescribed burnings has the potential to keep that increase below 50 %. Improvements in fire suppression might reduce this impact even further, e.g. boosting the probability of putting out a fire within a day by 10 % would result in about a 30 % decrease in annual burned areas. By taking more adaptation options into consideration, such as using agricultural fields as fire breaks, behavioural changes, and long-term options, burned areas can be potentially reduced further than projected in our analysis.     

Detection of feral GT73 transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus) along railway lines on entry routes to oilseed factories in Switzerland

To obtain a reference status prior to cultivation of genetically modified oilseed rape (OSR, Brassica napus L.) in Switzerland, the occurrence of feral OSR was monitored along transportation routes and at processing sites. The focus was set on the detection of (transgenic) OSR along railway lines from the Swiss borders with Italy and France to the respective oilseed processing factories in Southern and Northern Switzerland (Ticino and region of Basel). A monitoring concept was developed to identify sites of largest risk of escape of genetically modified plants into the environment in Switzerland. Transport spillage of OSR seeds from railway goods cars particularly at risk hot spots such as switch yards and (un)loading points but also incidental and continuous spillage were considered. All OSR plants, including their hybridization partners which were collected at the respective monitoring sites were analyzed for the presence of transgenes by real-time PCR. On sampling lengths each of 4.2 and 5.7 km, respectively, 461 and 1,574 plants were sampled in Ticino and the region of Basel. OSR plants were found most frequently along the routes to the oilseed facilities, and in larger amounts on risk hot spots compared to sites of random sampling. At three locations in both monitored regions, transgenic B. napus line GT73 carrying the glyphosate resistance transgenes gox and CP4 epsps were detected (Ticino, 22 plants; in the region of Basel, 159).     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Thermodynamic analysis of the energy recovery from the aerobic bioconversion of solid urban waste organic fraction

Waste management is of the utmost importance for many countries and especially for highly developed ones due to its implications on society. In particular, proper treatment before disposal of the solid urban waste organic fraction is one of the main issues that is addressed in waste management. In fact, the organic fraction is particularly reactive and if disposed in sanitary landfills without previous adequate treatment, a large amount of dangerous and polluting gaseous, liquid and solid substances can be produced. Some waste treatment processes can also present an opportunity to produce other by-products like energy, recycled materials and other products with both economic and environmental benefits. In this paper, the aerobic treatment of the organic fraction of solid urban waste, performed in a biocell plant with the possibility of recovering heat for civil or industrial needs, was examined from the thermodynamic point of view. A theoretical model was proposed both for the biological process of the organic fraction, as well as for the heat recovery system. The most significant results are represented and discussed.     

The functional and physiological status of Gammarus fossarum (Crustacea; Amphipoda) exposed to secondary treated wastewater

Climate change scenarios predict lower flow rates during summer that may lead to higher proportions of wastewater in small and medium sized streams. Moreover, micropollutants (e.g. pharmaceuticals and other contaminants) continuously enter aquatic environments via treated wastewater. However, there is a paucity of knowledge, whether extended exposure to secondary treated wastewater disrupts important ecosystem functions, e.g. leaf breakdown. Therefore, the amphipod shredder Gammarus fossarum was exposed to natural stream water (n = 34) and secondary treated wastewater (n = 32) for four weeks in a semi-static test system under laboratory conditions. G. fossarum exposed to wastewater showed significant reductions in feeding rate (25%), absolute consumption (35%), food assimilation (50%), dry weight (18%) and lipid content (22%). Thus, high proportions of wastewater in the stream flow may affect both the breakdown rates of leaf material and thus the availability of energy for the aquatic food web as well as the energy budget of G. fossarum.     

A simple Lagrangian model to simulate temporal variability of algae in the Elbe River

We present a five-year (1997–2001) numerical simulation of daily mean chlorophyll a concentrations at station Geesthacht Weir on the lower Elbe River (Germany) using an extremely simple Lagrangian model driven by (a) water discharge, global radiation, water temperature, and (b) silica observations at station Schmilka in the upper reach of the Elbe River. Notwithstanding the lack of many mechanistic details, the model is able to reproduce observed chlorophyll a variability surprisingly well, including a number of sharp valleys and ascents/descents in the observed time series. The model's success is based on the assumption of three key effects: prevailing light conditions, sporadic limitation of algal growth due to lack of silica and algae loss rates that increase above an empirically specified temperature threshold of 20 °C. Trimmed-down model versions are studied to analyse the model's success in terms of these mechanisms.In each of the five years the model consistently fails, however, to properly simulate characteristic steep increases of chlorophyll a concentrations after pronounced spring minima. Curing this model deficiency by global model re-calibration was found to be impossible. However, suspension of silica consumption by algae for up to 10 days in spring is shown to serve as a successful placeholder for processes that are disregarded in the model but apparently play an important role in the distinctly marked period of model failure. For the remainder of the year the very simple model was found to be adequate.     

Alcohol-assisted dyeing processes: a chemical substitution study

Dyeing processes of various yarns (wool, cotton, polyester, nylon 6 and acrylic) were studied with the aim to substitute some auxiliary agents with ethanol at low concentration. The results observed in isothermal dyeing showed a favorable effect of alcohol addition, at about 1-3% v/v, on the dye uptake, with some differences depending on fiber nature and dye class. This effect was correlated with contact angle measurements of water-ethanol solutions on the mentioned yarns, which confirmed a lower surface tension in the same concentration range. Then, laboratory tests with dye triads at programmed temperature were carried out comparing the results of standard dyeing recipes with those obtained by replacing wetting, retardant and leveling agents with ethanol. Good color imitations were generally shown with respect to standard processes. A wetting effect of ethanol was shown for all the tested yarns and dye classes, while in wool dyeing with acid, pre-metallized and reactive dyes, ethanol was suitable to replace also leveling and retarding agents. Light and wash fastnesses were also compared. Finally the environmental benefits arising from chemical substitution of auxiliary agents with ethanol were highlighted and the cost of alcohol introduction was compared with the cost saving of auxiliary substitution. A positive economic balance was obtained.