Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Automotive shredder residue (ASR) characterization for a valuable management

Car fluff is the waste produced after end-of-life-vehicles (ELVs) shredding and metal recovery. It is made of plastics, rubber, glass, textiles and residual metals and it accounts for almost one-third of a vehicle mass. Due to the approaching of Directive 2000/53/EC recycling targets, 85% recycling rate and 95% recovery rate in 2015, the implementation of automotive shredder residue (ASR) sorting and recycling technologies appears strategic. The present work deals with the characterization of the shredder residue coming from an industrial plant, representative of the Italian situation, as for annual fluxes and technologies involved. The aim of this study is to characterize ASR in order to study and develop a cost effective and environmentally sustainable recycling system. Results show that almost half of the residue is made of fines and the remaining part is mainly composed of polymers. Fine fraction is the most contaminated by mineral oils and heavy metals. This fraction produces also up to 40% ashes and its LHV is lower than the plastic-rich one. Foam rubber represents around half of the polymers share in car fluff. Moreover, some chemical–physical parameters exceed the limits of some parameters fixed by law to be considered refuse derived fuel (RDF). As a consequence, ASR needs to be pre-treated in order to follow the energy recovery route.     

On how much biodiversity is covered in Europe by national protected areas and by the Natura 2000 network: insights from terrestrial vertebrates

The European Union has made extensive biodiversity conservation efforts with the Habitats and Birds Directives and with the establishment of the Natura 2000 network of protected areas, one of the largest networks of conservation areas worldwide. We performed a gap analysis of the entire Natura 2000 system plus national protected areas and all terrestrial vertebrates (freshwater fish excluded). We also evaluated the level of connectivity of both systems, providing therefore a first estimate of the functionality of the Natura 2000 system as an effective network of protected areas. Together national protected areas and the Natura 2000 network covered more than one‐third of the European Union. National protected areas did not offer protection to 13 total gap species (i.e., species not covered by any protected area) or to almost 300 partial gap species (i.e., species whose representation target is not met). Together the Natura 2000 network and national protected areas left 1 total gap species and 121 partial gap species unprotected. The terrestrial vertebrates listed in the Habitats and Birds Directives were relatively well covered (especially birds), and overall connectivity was improved considerably by Natura 2000 sites that act as stepping stones between national protected areas. Overall, we found that the Natura 2000 network represents at continental level an important network of protected areas that acts as a good complement to existing national protected areas. However, a number of problems remain that are mainly linked to the criteria used to list the species in the Habitats and Birds Directives. The European Commission initiated in 2014 a process aimed at assessing the importance of the Birds and Habitats Directives for biodiversity conservation. Our results contribute to this assessment and suggest the system is largely effective for terrestrial vertebrates but would benefit from further updating of the species lists and field management.     

A multi-factorial experiment on heart rate variations in the intertidal crab Pachygrapsus marmoratus

A multi-factorial experiment was designed to investigate the effect of the following factors on the cardiac activity of the intertidal crab Pachygrapsus marmoratus: respiratory medium (air, water), temperature (four levels, 10, 17.5, 25, 32.5 °C), season (winter, summer) and body size (two levels, carapace ≤21 mm and carapace >21 mm). The results showed that the heart rate of P. marmoratus increased linearly with temperature and decreased when the specimens were exposed to air rather than water. Moreover, the heart rate values in summer were lower than those in winter at the corresponding temperature and body size. The summer heart rate–temperature regression line was laterally (to the right) shifted with respect to the winter line, suggesting a seasonal acclimation. Body size affected heart rate only at the acclimation temperature (17.5 °C), while no significant effect was detected at lower or higher temperatures. During the reproductive season a separate experiment was carried out to assess the effect of sex and reproductive status on heart rate. No significant difference was found among mean values of males, berried females and females without eggs. The results of the present study confirm the high physiological plasticity of this species, suggesting that P. marmoratus is a truly amphibious crab, able to deal with both water- and air-breathing during its activity. Received: 5 January 1999 / Accepted: 7 July 1999     

Factors affecting variability of foraging excursions in a population of the limpet Patella vulgata (Mollusca,Gastropoda)

Paths moved by the limpet Patella vulgata L. were monitored on a sheltered vertical rocky shore in North Wales using time-lapse photography throughout nocturnal low tides in April and November 1992, roughly corresponding to periods of minimum and maximum gonad ripeness, respectively. Various motion parameters, including total duration, total length, and maximum distance reached from home were computed from 124 complete foraging routes obtained from 18 higher-zoned and 18 lower-zoned limpets. P. vulgata typically performed a single loop per night (average total length, ca. 70 cm), moving from the individual home scar to graze the surrounding algal grounds (average maximum distance, ca. 25 cm), then following its own trail back home. On the average, limpets moved from the home scar during three of four available nocturnal low tides and exploited about half the emersion time. Evidence for size-related variability in behaviour was found, as a positive correlation was assessed between both total duration and legth of the excursions, and shell length. In addition, zonation was proved to affect the limpets' foraging behaviour, since low-shore limpets moved faster and covered greater distances than high-shore ones. Moreover, consistent seasonal variation in foraging behaviour emerged, since in April the excursions were longer and longer-lasting than in November, but limpets exploited a larger fraction of potential activity phases in November than in April. The within-population variability in the temporal and spatial characteristics of the foraging excursions is discussed in relation to the available data on zonal and seasonal variation of food resources and in relation to physiological changes due to reproductive cycle.     

Aluminium flows in vehicles: enhancing the recovery at end-of-life

The transportation sector constitutes the major end-use market for aluminium-containing products and expectations for the future do indicate that aluminium will increase at 140 kg per vehicle. Moreover, up to 75 % aluminium recycled in Europe is used in transportation: thus, metal scrap recovered from ELVs is a key lever to act for closing material cycles. However, although the management chain of ELVs has an established procedure and aluminium scrap is usually recovered in shredding plants, a considerable fraction of the metal particles ends up in the light fraction called car fluff and is then landfilled. In this study we investigated potential of enhancing the recovery of aluminium scrap from the light fluff treatment. With this goal, the quantity of aluminium embedded in the Italian transport sector in the last 62 years was estimated, and a campaign of characterization in size and shape distribution of aluminium particles in the light fluff output has been carried out. The results estimated up to about 560,000 tons of metal are potentially recoverable from the treatment of light fluff at current operating conditions, but relevant improvements may be achieve when size and shape distribution criteria are adopt to implement eddy currents separation for a quantitative metal recovery.     

Macrodispersion by diverging radial flows in randomly heterogeneous porous media

Radial flow takes place in a heterogeneous porous formation where the transmissivity T is modelled as a stationary random space function (RSF). The steady flow is driven by a given rate, and the mean velocity is radial. A pulse-like of a tracer is injected in the porous formation, and the thin plume spreads due to the fluctuations of the velocity which results a RSF as well. Transport is characterized by the mean front, and by the second spatial moment of the plume. We are primarily interested in tracer macrodispersion modelling. With the neglect of pore-scale dispersion, macrodispersion coefficients are computed at the second order of approximation, without neglecting the head-gradient fluctuations. Although transport is non-ergodic at the source, it is shown that ergodicity is achieved at small distances from the source. This is due to the fact that close to the source local velocities are quite large, and therefore solute particles become uncorrelated very soon. Under ergodic conditions, we compare macrodispersion mechanism in radial flows with that occurring in mean uniform flows. At short distances the spreading effect is highly enhanced by the large variability of the flow field, whereas at large distances transport exhibits a lesser dispersion due to the reduction of velocities. This supports the explanation provided by Indelman and Dagan (1999) to justify why the macrodispersivity is found smaller than that pertaining to mean uniform flows. The model is tested against a tracer transport experiment (Fernàndez-Garcia et al., 2004) by comparing the theoretical and experimental breakthrough curves. The accordance with real data, that is achieved without any fitting to concentration values, strengthens the capability of the proposed model to grasp the main features of such an experiment, the approximations as well as experimental uncertainties notwithstanding.     

Plasticity in the temporal organization of behaviour in the limpet <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cellana grata</Emphasis>

The behaviour of intertidal consumers is often tightly constrained to tidal movements, although activity patterns can vary within these constraints. Spatio-temporal variability in behaviour of a limpet, Cellana grata, was analysed over different tidal conditions (spring and neap tides) and during different times of the year (one summer and one winter) at sites in Hong Kong. Activity was generally dictated by tidal movements, being concentrated when animals were awash. Plasticity in behaviour was observed, with some limpets anticipating activity during the summer period and delaying activity during winter time. Limpets were active for a time equal, or slightly less, than time awash. As the time awash exceeded ~14–16 h, however, activity duration decreased. Within this general pattern, tidal variation as well as variation among times of the year was noted, with the lowest dependence on time awash being recorded during winter neap tides. Limpets showed a slight preference for being active during nighttime, which was particularly evident when animals were emersed during the summer period. Although the basic activity in C. grata is constrained to a specific temporal window, this limpet is able to modulate its foraging strategies and resting height, according to local, daily changes in environmental conditions.     

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km² of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations’ resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.