Serengeti wildebeest migratory patterns modeled from rainfall and new vegetation growth

We used evolutionary programming to model innate migratory pathways of wildebeest in the Serengeti Mara Ecosystem, Tanzania and Kenya. Wildebeest annually move from the southern short-grass plains of the Serengeti to the northern woodlands of the Mara. We used satellite images to create 12 average monthly and 180 10-day surfaces from 1998 to 2003 of percentage rainfall and new vegetation. The surfaces were combined in five additive and three multiplicative models, with the weightings on rainfall and new vegetation from 0% to 100%. Modeled wildebeest were first assigned random migration pathways. In simulated generations, animals best able to access rainfall and vegetation were retained, and they produced offspring with similar migratory pathways. Modeling proceeded until the best pathway was stable. In a learning phase, modeling continued with the ten-day images in the objective function. The additive model, influenced 25% by rainfall and 75% by vegetation growth, yielded the best agreement, with a multi-resolution comparison to observed densities yielding 76.8% of blocks in agreement (kappa = 0.32). Agreement was best for dry season and early wet season (kappa = 0.22-0.57), and poorest for the late wet season (0.04). The model suggests that new forage growth is a dominant correlate of wildebeest migration.     

Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Compensating for the costs of polygyny in hen harriers Circus cyaneus

In polygynous species, the adults are faced with a dilemma during chick rearing. Males must decide how to distribute food between their females and food allocation patterns are often highly unequal. In turn, the females that receive less food from males have to decide how much time to invest in additional hunting. If they spend more time hunting, then they leave their young exposed to weather and predators. However, if they stay at the nest, they increase the risk of their chicks starving. One way that birds may compensate for reduced provisioning is by increasing the size of prey caught. We tested this hypothesis by comparing prey deliveries to nests of hen harriers, Circus cyaneus, with females of different breeding status. As expected, male harriers delivered less food items to the nests of polygynous females, and especially their secondary, or β females. However, both sexes were able to compensate by delivering larger items and there was no difference in the overall mass of food delivered to nests. Moreover, females spent a similar amount of time at the nest, irrespective of status, and there were no overall differences in breeding success. Our results show that polygynous female harriers can compensate for the costs of polygyny, but we suggest that their ability to do so will vary according to the abundance of both large prey and predators.     

Raptors and Red Grouse: Conservation Conflicts and Management Solutions

Abstract: Recovering predator populations may present problems for conservationists if their prey are of economic or conservation value. We address this issue by examining the conflict between raptor conservation and management of Red Grouse (   Lagopus l. scoticus ) in Britain. Heather moorland is a distinctive habitat that supports an important assemblage of breeding birds. Large areas of moorland are managed by private landowners for shooting grouse. Although grouse shooting benefits conservation by retaining heather moorland, it is currently unclear whether grouse management directly benefits other upland birds. Human persecution has greatly restricted the range and abundance of most raptor species in Britain. Following the introduction of bird protection laws, the decline in gamekeeping, and the restriction of organochlorine pesticides, raptor populations have started to recover. Persecution of raptors on grouse moors is widespread and limits the range and abundance of Hen Harriers (  Circus cyaneus ), Peregrine Falcons (   Falco peregrinus ), and Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). In some circumstances, raptor predation can reduce both the breeding density and productivity of Red Grouse. Limitation of grouse populations through raptor predation is most likely to occur where raptors are at high density because of the abundance of alternative prey, and grouse are at low density either because of poor management or the cyclic nature of some grouse populations. In the long term, habitat management may reduce densities of alternative prey, leading to reductions in raptor densities and their predation on grouse. More active intervention may be required, however, if grouse moors are to remain viable in the short-term. Current research is focused on manipulating harrier diet through diversionary feeding. Complementary research is needed to investigate methods to reduce raptor numbers locally while ensuring their national status.