Evaluation of a real-time monitoring system for river quality — a trade-off between risk attitudes,costs, and uncertainty

Uncertainty is definitely one of the key topics in environmental assessment and management. Typically, attempts to reduce uncertainty are subject to expenses. But how to compare and trade-off expenses and the reduced uncertainty? They only seldom allow the use of a single unit. Instead, the whole analysis and decision procedure is very subjective. This paper presents one approach to handle such problems, namely the combined use of Bayesian influence diagrams, and probabilistic risk attitude analysis. The approach was used in the evaluation of three alternatives for a real time river water quality forecasting system. A trade-off analysis of risk attitudes, costs and uncertainty indicated the levels of socioeconomic utility required for investments in the respective systems, and accordingly illuminated the impact of the uncertainties involved on inference and decision-making with various risk attitudes and discount rates.     

洪水是否在增长?

洪灾的消息越来越频繁,越来越引人注目.很多人对洪水是否比以前增长了产生了疑问.很多情况下洪水是增长了,然而也有很多河流洪水是降低的.气候因素导致了许多这样的变化,但是人为产生的流域变化更加重要.洪水造成的危害则毫无疑问是增长的.剧烈的城市化,尤其是在亚洲和非洲,造成了人们居住在容易受到洪水危害的河流和三角洲地区.     

The role of daytime cues in the development of magnetic orientation in a night-migrating bird

To assess the role of celestial rotation during daytime in the development of the magnetic compass course, pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca Pallas, Muscicapidae) were handraised in Latvia under various celestial and magnetic conditions. Tests were performed during autumn migration in the local geomagnetic field (50 000 nT, 73° inclination) in the absence of celestial cues. A group of birds that had never seen the sky showed a bimodal preference for the migratory southwest-northeast axis, whereas a second group that had been exposed to the natural sky from sunrise to sunset in the local geomagnetic field showed a unimodal preference for the seasonally appropriate southwesterly direction. A third group that had also been exposed to the daytime sky, but in the absence of magnetic compass information, also oriented bimodally along a southwest-northeast axis. These findings demonstrate that observing celestial rotation during daytime enables birds to choose the right end of the migratory axis for autumn migration at the Latvian test location. This transformation of axial behavior into appropriate migratory orientation, however, requires the birds to have simultaneous access to information on both celestial rotation and the geomagnetic field. Received: 19 September 1997 / Accepted after revision: 22 November 1997     

Backyard of the rich north: the climate change-related vicious circle of the Arctic zone

The Arctic zone is full of controversies, unknowns, contrasts, and challenges. The following example is enlightening. Saudi Arabia is a country that has been considered to have almost unlimited possibilities because of its enormous oil earnings. The country has US$60 thousand million purchasing power parity oil income each year for its mere 22 million inhabitants. Astonishingly, the Arctic zone's income from oil, gas, and minerals is at least as large as that of Saudi Arabia, modestly estimated, but the Arctic has less than 4 million people. Most money, however, flows away from the tundra, yet social and environmental problems remain there. A part of the side effect of consuming these resources-largely fossil fuels-returns to the Arctic in the form of greenhouse warming and all its consequences. The Arctic zone now warms at approximately double the rate of the world average.     

Poverty, economic growth, deprivation, and water: the cases of Cambodia and Vietnam

Poverty reduction decorates all development agendas, but the complexity of the poverty issue is too often hidden behind simplistic indicators and development goals. Here, a closer look is taken at the concepts of "deprivation" and "vulnerability" as outcomes of poverty. Deprivation leads typically to social exclusion and marginalization; such groups are particularly weak in getting themselves out of poverty by "self-help," and economic growth does not trickle down to these people. When looking at the connections between poverty reduction and economic growth, special emphasis should be put on the differences between modern and more traditional sectors: development of the modern sector should not marginalize and exclude those dependent on more traditional livelihoods. Two case studies--The Tonle Sap area, Cambodia, and the Mekong Delta, Vietnam--reveal that investment in education, empowerment of small-scale entrepreneurship and other means of microeconomic environment, along with good governance, infrastructure, and income distribution can ensure that economic growth includes the poorer echelons of society.     

Mekong at the Crossroads

The Mekong region is undergoing rapid transitions, socially, economically, and environmentally. Economies are stabilizing after the political turbulence of the last several decades, and development pressures as well as ambitions are vast. Water is related to these social, economic, and environmental changes in many ways and in a very profound manner. This article summarizes the approach and major conclusions of the research project title "Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) on the Mekong River." The concept of IWRM is elaborated in the setting of these major transitions, and the roles of academic research and education are highlighted.     

Using Global Datasets to Create Environmental Profiles for Data-Poor Regions: A Case from the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins

The increasing availability of spatial data inspires the exploration of previously less-studied, yet regionally and nationally important areas, such as the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins in Southeast Asia. This article documents our experience using global datasets to create environmental basin profiles in these two basins. Our approach draws on the concepts of freshwater vulnerability assessments that guided the selection of indicators. Data on land use, population distribution and fertilizer load were used. The unit of analysis was chosen to distinguish areas with similar bio-geographical characteristics, such as the critical delta areas. Results were further discussed for sub-areas that experience relatively the most pressure in terms of examined indicators within the studied area. The river mouths of both rivers had the most intensive land use and high population density. They are also home to important ecosystems and are sensitive to changes in upstream areas. Our study presents a concise and spatially distributed view of the environmental basin profiles of the Irrawaddy and Salween River Basins. The analysis also provides some interesting methodological insights about the potential of public macro-scale datasets for environmental assessment. The spatial approach allowed the analysis of different indicators, providing a platform for data integration as well as a visually powerful overview of the study area. Yet, the use of macro-scale datasets entails challenges. Despite improvements, the assessment process tends to be driven by the availability and quality of data, rather than by the actual research and management needs. The greatest utility of macro-scale datasets lies—at least in data-poor areas—in larger scale comparative analyses between the basins and their different sub-areas.     

Integrated water management of the Brahmaputra basin: Perspectives and hope for regional development

Water is strongly linked with the overall development framework of the Brahmaputra basin. However, the absence of integrated management of Brahmaputra water resources and lack of coordination among the riparian states constitutes an ongoing threat to future development plans within the basin. Brahmaputra's abundant hydropower potential can help give riparian countries a safer energy future that is the key driving force behind the prospect of potential cooperation. This paper analyses the current status of Brahmaputra water resources and identifies the perspectives of riparian countries regarding the development of the Brahmaputra basin. It also identifies the opportunities for cooperation and regional development through integrated water development and management of the Brahmaputra basin. It is essential to develop an integrated water resources management approach involving all riparians to foster regional development and overcome the prospect of severe water conflict along the Brahmaputra basin.