Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

River discharge as a major driving force on spatial and temporal variations in zooplankton biomass and community structure in the Godavari estuary India

Variability in horizontal zooplankton biomass distribution was investigated over 13 months in the Godavari estuary, along with physical (river discharge, temperature, salinity), chemical (nutrients, particulate organic matter), biological (phytoplankton biomass), and geological (suspended matter) properties to examine the influencing factors on their spatial and temporal variabilities. The entire estuary was filled with freshwater during peak discharge period and salinity near zero, increased to ~ 34 psu during dry period with relatively high nutrient levels during former than the latter period. Due to low flushing time (< 1 day) and high suspended load (> 500 mg L^?1) during peak discharge period, picoplankton (cyanophyceae) contributed significantly to the phytoplankton biomass (Chl-a) whereas microplankton and nanoplankton (bacillariophyceae, and chlorophyceae) during moderate and mostly microplankton during dry period. Zooplankton biomass was the lowest during peak discharge period and increased during moderate followed by dry period. The zooplankton abundance was controlled by dead organic matter during peak discharge period, while both phytoplankton biomass and dead organic matter during moderate discharge and mostly phytoplankton biomass during dry period. This study suggests that significant modification of physico-chemical properties by river discharge led to changes in phytoplankton composition and dead organic matter concentrations that alters biomass, abundance, and composition of zooplankton in the Godavari estuary.     

Impact of malathion on the biochemical parameters of gobiid fish, Glossogobius giuris (Ham)

There is a dearth of information regarding the changes in heart muscle metabolites induced by pesticides. In the present study, the gobiid fish, Glossogobius giuris, was exposed to sub lethal concentrations of (0.05, 0.25 and 0.5 ppm) organophosphorus pesticide, malathion for short duration (24 to 96 hr). The cardiac muscles showed maximum depletion of glycogen and cholesterol content during 72 and 96 hr after treatment with 0.5 ppm malathion. Whereas a slight fluctuation of protein and glycogen content was observed in low concentration (0.05 ppm) of malathion. The levels of protein showed a significant decrease at high concentration (0.5 ppm) when treated for longer duration (96 hr). The present study reports metabolic dysfunction in response to malathion toxicity in the fish.     

A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model (SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics‐Snake River Planning Model (SD‐SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950‐1995) resulted in an r² value of 0.74 and a validation (1996‐2005) r² value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r² value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991‐2005) end‐of‐month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration (ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human‐natural system to understand the impacts of climate change.     

Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

Effects of initial seated position in low speed rear-end impacts: a comparison with the TNO rear impact dummy (TRID) model

Injury-producing mechanisms associated with rear-end impact collision has remained a mystery not withstanding numerous investigations devoted to its scrutiny. Several criteria have been proposed to predict the injury-causing mechanism, but none have been universally accepted. The challenge lies in determining a set of testing procedures representative of real-world collisions, wherein the results obtained are not only the same as human testing, but remain consistent with various subjects and impact conditions. It is hypothesized that one of the most important considerations in the testing methodology is the effect of initial seated position (ISP) on occupant kinematics during a rear impact collision. This study involves two parts that evaluates the effects of ISP during rear-end impact. In the first part, head acceleration results of computer simulation using Hybrid III TNO rear impact dummy (TRID) are compared to physical impact testing (PIT) of humans. The second part focuses on the computer simulation using TRID to obtain different neck parameters such as NIC (Neck Injury Criterion), NIJ (Neck Injury Predictor), neck forces and moments to predict the level of neck injury such as whiplash associated disorder (WAD) during low speed rear-end impact. In PIT, a total of 17 rear-impact tests were conducted with a nominal 8-km/hour change in velocity to 5 subjects in four different seated positions comprising of a normal position (NP) and three out of positions (OOP). The first position was a NP, defined as torso against the seat back, looking straight ahead, hands on the steering wheel, and feet on the floor. The second position was a head flex position (HFP), defined as the normal position with head flexed forward approximately 20 degrees. The third position was a torso lean position (TLP), defined as the normal position with torso leaned forward approximately 10 degrees away from the seat back. Lastly, a torso lean head flex position (TLHFP), defined as the normal position with the head flexed forward approximately 20 degrees and torso leaned forward approximately 10 degrees. The head acceleration plots from PIT reveal that for the third and fourth positions (TLP and TLHFP) when the subject torso leaned forward, the peak head acceleration for the subject decreased and there was also a delay in reaching the peak. The Hybrid III-TRID anthropomorphic test dummy (ATD) was used in the same four different seated positions using computer simulation software MAthematical DYnamic MOdel (MADYMO 6.0) and the head acceleration results were compared to PIT. The comparison demonstrates that the Hybrid III-TRID ATD with MADYMO can be a reliable testing procedure during low-speed, rear-end impact for the four ISPs considered since the head acceleration plots deviated within the range of PIT head acceleration plots for different human subjects. This ensures that the second part of the study with neck injury using computer simulation results is a reliable testing procedure. It can be observed that MADYMO results have a greater error when compared to PIT when more than one OOP condition is employed as in TLHFP. All these observations would help in providing a tool to better understand the injury mechanisms and provide an accurate testing procedure for rear-end impact.