The cost-effectiveness of residential radon remediation programmes: assumptions about benefits stream profiles over time

A recent cost-effectiveness analysis of a residential radon remediation programme considered and highlighted many areas of uncertainty in the parameters chosen for the analysis. One assumption not challenged in the study was the benefits stream profile adopted. There are several different ways of loading the benefits in terms of life years into the cost-effectiveness model and several of these are explored and the results are reported in this study. The benefits profile depends upon the lead-time to cancer manifestation post environmental carcinogen (radon) exposure. The literature reviewed suggests that there are many options for loading benefits to radon-induced lung cancer prevention programmes. In this study, the alternative benefits stream profiles are explored and their implications for the cost-effectiveness ratio are examined. Adopting different benefits stream profiles to the model results in a range of cost-effectiveness ratios from 14912.90 pounds per life year gained to 52416.27 pounds per life year gained. The preferred model is reported where the life years gained are assumed to be equally distributed over the last 15 years of the 40-year time horizon of the analysis (Y25-40) and the corresponding cost-effectiveness ratio is 37,943 pounds per life year gained.     

A Framework of Lessons Learned from Community-Based Marine Reserves and Its Effectiveness in Guiding a New Coastal Management Initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion.These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.Published on line     

Conservation of the Toromiro Tree: Case Study in the Management of a Plant Extinct in the Wild

Abstract: We reviewed the history and conservation of Sophora toromiro , a species that has been extinct in the wild since 1960 but has survived as scattered individuals in botanic gardens and private collections. The short-term conservation of S. toromiro is dependent on the management of surviving ex situ stocks. This is being achieved through international collaboration by a working group established to coordinate the conservation management of the species. Molecular evidence indicates that the species retains greater genetic variability than expected. The greatest amount of genetic variability was located in specimens outside botanic garden collections. No unmodified natural habitat survives on Rapa Nui ( Easter Island); so opportunities to establish a viable wild population are limited. Evidence from past reintroductions indicates that the best short-term opportunity for the species is through conventional horticultural management in botanic gardens and traditional farm plots on Rapa Nui. Some extinct-in-the-wild taxa (sensu World Conservation Union 1994), such as the Toromiro, retain genetic variability, and appropriate reintroduction sites exist. These taxa represent valid priorities for conservation management.     

Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs

Quantifying the beta diversity (species replacement along spatiotemporal gradients) of ecosystems is important for understanding and conserving patterns of biodiversity. However, virtually all studies of beta diversity focus on one-dimensional transects orientated along a specific environmental gradient that is defined a priori. By ignoring a second spatial dimension and the associated changes in species composition and environmental gradients, this approach may provide limited insight into the full pattern of beta diversity. Here, we use remotely sensed imagery to quantify beta diversity continuously, in two dimensions, and at multiple scales across an entire tropical marine seascape. We then show that beta diversity can be modeled (0.852 > or = r2 > or = 0.590) at spatial scales between 0.5 and 5.0 km2, using the environmental variables of mean and variance of depth and wave exposure. Beta diversity, quantified within a "window" of a given size, is positively correlated to the range of environmental conditions within that window. For example, beta diversity increases with increasing variance of depth. By analyzing such relationships across seascapes, this study provides a framework for a range of disparate coral reef literature including studies of zonation, diversity, and disturbance. Using supporting evidence from soft-bottom communities, we hypothesize that depth will be an important variable for modeling beta diversity in a range of marine systems. We discuss the implications of our results for the design of marine reserves.     

Tropical coastal habitats as surrogates of fish community structure, grazing, and fisheries value

Habitat maps are frequently invoked as surrogates of biodiversity to aid the design of networks of marine reserves. Maps are used to maximize habitat heterogeneity in reserves because this is likely to maximize the number of species protected. However, the technique's efficacy is limited by intra-habitat variability in the species present and their abundances. Although communities are expected to vary among patches of the same habitat, this variability is poorly documented and rarely incorporated into reserve planning. To examine intra-habitat variability in coral-reef fishes, we generated a data set from eight tropical coastal habitats and six islands in the Bahamian archipelago using underwater visual censuses. Firstly, we provide further support for habitat heterogeneity as a surrogate of biodiversity as each predefined habitat type supported a distinct assemblage of fishes. Intra-habitat variability in fish community structure at scales of hundreds of kilometers (among islands) was significant in at least 75% of the habitats studied, depending on whether presence/absence, density, or biomass data were used. Intra-habitat variability was positively correlated with the mean number of species in that habitat when density and biomass data were used. Such relationships provide a proxy for the assessment of intra-habitat variability when detailed quantitative data are scarce. Intra-habitat variability was examined in more detail for one habitat (forereefs visually dominated by Montastraea corals). Variability in community structure among islands was driven by small, demersal families (e.g., territorial pomacentrid and labrid fishes). Finally, we examined the ecological and economic significance of intra-habitat variability in fish assemblages on Montastraea reefs by identifying how this variability affects the composition and abundances of fishes in different functional groups, the key ecosystem process of parrotfish grazing, and the ecosystem service of value of commercially important finfish. There were significant differences in a range of functional groups and grazing, but not fisheries value. Variability at the scale of tens of kilometers (among reefs around an island) was less than that among islands. Caribbean marine reserves should be replicated at scales of hundreds of kilometers, particularly for species-rich habitats, to capture important intra-habitat variability in community structure, function, and an ecosystem process.     

Effects of Pollinator Loss on Endemic New Zealand Mistletoes (Loranthaceae)

Abstract: The endemic mistletoes Peraxilla colensoi and P. tetrapetala (Loranthaceae) have declined considerably in New Zealand since 1840, reputedly because of introduced herbivores but coincident with a major decline in native bird densities. We show that at two South Island sites ( Craigieburn and Ohau) there are too few bird pollinators visiting the flowers to allow full fruit set. We studied pollination rates in P. colensoi at Wakefield and P. tetrapetala at Craigieburn over four flowering seasons and P. tetrapetala in one season at Ohau. Supplemental hand pollination increased fruit production 1.25–5.3 times at Craigieburn and Ohau but not at Wakefield. Excluding birds by covering mistletoes with mesh bags decreased fruit set significantly at Wakefield but had little effect at Craigieburn and Ohau. Bellbirds ( Anthornis melanura ) and Tuis (   Prosthemadera novaeseelandiae ) visited flowers significantly more often at Wakefield than at Craigieburn. A lack of pollen tubes in the style, not self-incompatibility or resource shortage, caused the low fruit production in unmanipulated flowers at Craigieburn. Thus, at the two P. tetrapetala sites (Craigieburn and Ohau) fruit set was chronically pollen limited, whereas P. colensoi at Wakefield was not pollen-limited. Data from other Peraxilla sites also suggest pollination failure. Our study suggests that the conservation of Peraxilla species will require maintenance of native bird populations. Tuis and Bellbirds are important pollinators and dispersers of many other New Zealand plants, and the breakdown of such mutualistic relationships may have widespread consequences.     

Correction to: Status and trends of circumpolar peregrine falcon and gyrfalcon populations

While collating contributions and comments from 36 researchers, the coordinating authors accidentally omitted Dr. Suzanne Carrière from the list of contributing co-authors. Dr. Carrière’s data are described in Tables 1 and 3, Figure 2 and several places in the narrative. The new author list is thus updated in this article.     

Documenting lemming population change in the Arctic: Can we detect trends?

Lemmings are a key component of tundra food webs and changes in their dynamics can affect the whole ecosystem. We present a comprehensive overview of lemming monitoring and research activities, and assess recent trends in lemming abundance across the circumpolar Arctic. Since 2000, lemmings have been monitored at 49 sites of which 38 are still active. The sites were not evenly distributed with notably Russia and high Arctic Canada underrepresented. Abundance was monitored at all sites, but methods and levels of precision varied greatly. Other important attributes such as health, genetic diversity and potential drivers of population change, were often not monitored. There was no evidence that lemming populations were decreasing in general, although a negative trend was detected for low arctic populations sympatric with voles. To keep the pace of arctic change, we recommend maintaining long-term programmes while harmonizing methods, improving spatial coverage and integrating an ecosystem perspective.     

Modelling contra-flow in crowd dynamics DEM simulation

This paper highlights the growing need for a realistic crowd simulation in the design of large venues such as concert halls and stadia. A discrete element method (DEM) technique for modelling crowd dynamics has been developed that represents each person within the model as 3 overlapping circles, a position, orientation and velocity in 2D. Contact forces between elements are included in the model as well as psychological forces, motive forces and moments. The motion of each person is then modelled in a Newtonian manner with a numerical integration time-stepping scheme. The model has been shown previously to work well in predicting egress. In this paper the predicted model behaviour is compared to actual video footage shot at various locations around University Park Campus, Nottingham. It did not match well to the video footage when people are moving towards each other, as in cases of contra-flow on a walkway. In order to improve the model, a general algorithm for ‘avoidance’ was included which appeared to make the model significantly more realistic in these cases. The paper also shows areas for further potential development, such as incorporating people into associative groups such as family or friends.     

Causes and consequences of contest outcome: aggressiveness, dominance and growth in the sheepshead swordtail, Xiphophorus birchmanni

Although our understanding of how animal personality affects fitness is incomplete, one general hypothesis is that personality traits (e.g. boldness and aggressiveness) contribute to competitive ability. If so, then under resource limitation, personality differences will generate variation in life history traits crucial to fitness, like growth. Here, we test this idea using data from same-sex dyadic interaction trials of sheepshead swordtails (Xiphophorus birchmanni). In males, there was evidence of repeatable variation across a suite of agonistic contest behaviours, while repeatable opponent effects on focal behaviour were also detected. A single vector explains 80 % of the among-individual variance in multivariate phenotype and can be viewed as aggressiveness. We also find that aggressiveness predicts dominance—the repeatable tendency to win food in competition—and dominant individuals show faster post-trial weight gain (independently of initial size). In females, a dominance hierarchy predictive of weight gain was also found, but there was no evidence of variation in aggressiveness. While size often predicts contest outcome, our results show that individuals may sometimes grow larger because they are behaviourally dominant rather than vice versa. When resources are limited, personality traits such as aggression can influence growth, life history, and fitness through impacts on resource acquisition.