Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

Improvements on Flood Alleviation in Germany: Lessons Learned from the Elbe Flood in August 2002

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a “Lessons Learned” study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Lae nder) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for “unthinkable extreme events” beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.     

Aerosol chemical characteristics of an island site in the Bay of Bengal (Bhola-Bangladesh)

Aerosol constituents (elemental carbon, organic carbon, soluble ions including organic acids, and selected trace metals) were investigated from samples of a field campaign taking place at Bhola Island in the Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh). The campaign took place in the pre-monsoon season (May 2001) using low volume samplers. Carbonaceous material comprised the majority of the analysed components. The average concentrations of EC and OC were 2.8 and 4.6 microg m(-3), respectively. Oxalic acid was the most abundant dicarboxylic acid (average 268 ng m(-3)) followed by malonic and malic acid. The contribution of carboxylic acids-carbon to organic carbon was 2.0%. Average concentrations observed for sulfate and nitrate were 3.7 microg m(-3) and 1.5 microg m(-3). Two different types of aerosol were identified at the rural background site on Bhola Island during southerly synoptic flow by means of trajectory analysis: air masses were transported from the Bay of Bengal to the sampling site in all cases. However, during "Period 1" they experienced longer residence times over the Indian Ocean, while the "Period 2" trajectories came along the Indian coast or passed over the Indian continent. During Period 1 the concentration levels of soluble ions were a factor of 4-6 lower than during Period 2. The concentrations of EC, OC and K differed less than a factor of 1.5 between the two periods. The Period 1 aerosol showed similarities to the haze layers observed during winter-monsoon conditions south of India during the INDOEX experiment. Based on EC/TC and K/EC ratios we find that around 80% of the carbonaceous aerosol from Period 1 in Bhola is from fossil fuel and only around 50% from Period 2. Absolute concentrations of carbonaceous species, soluble ions and trace metals indicate that the background site on Bhola Island is affected by emissions from urbanized regions of Southeast Asia.     

Policy conditions for sustainable agriculture in the Netherlands

Summary Sustainability as a goal is widely accepted and ranked high on the political agenda. Although the operationalization of this concept differs, the range of opinions shows a pseudo-consensus. Sustainable agriculture is defined in this paper as an agriculture that fulfils functions with regard to food production, nature and landscape, and the development of the rural areas now and in the future. This requires a set of ecological criteria for the agricultural sector. Besides the ecological aspects, sustainable agriculture has consequences for the economic, cultural and socio-political aspects of society. This paper concentrates on the socio-political conditions for sustainable agriculture. An important strategy for the realisation of sustainable agriculture is the stimulation of sustainable initiatives of (groups of) farmers, in particular on a regional level. The future perspectives of such a bottom-upwards approach are described by giving some examples of initiatives of Dutch farmers. It will be argued that the national governmental policy has to enlarge the scope for the development of farming practices.Dr Ing L.G. (Ina) Horlings studied land and water management at the Larenstein International Agricultural College in Velp before studying geography at the University of Nijmegen. She currently works at this university as a researcher and lecturer in the Department of Environmental Policy Sciences at the University. She is writing her thesis on agricultural policy. Her publications relate to environmental aspects of spatial research, farmer's initiatives and agricultural landuse.     

Mechanics and Morphology of Silk Drawn from Anesthetized Spiders

 CO₂ and N₂ anesthetized Nephila spiders produced dragline silk with mechanical properties that differed from control silk as a function of time under anesthesia. Silk from CO₂ spiders had a significantly lower breaking strain and breaking energy, significantly higher initial modulus, and marginally lower breaking stress. At the onset of anesthesia the silk diameter became highly variable. During deep anesthesia silk either became thinner or retained cross-section but fibrillated. Received: 26 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 22 December 1999     

Scaring as a tool to alleviate crop damage by geese: Revealing differences between farmers’ perceptions and the scale of the problem

Expanding populations of farmland foraging geese are causing escalating conflict with agriculture. We used questionnaires to investigate farmers´ perceptions in mid-Norway of spring staging geese and the extent to which they attempt to reduce pasture damage by goose scaring. We predicted farmers’ scaring effort (a measure of dissatisfaction) to increase on fields closer to goose roosting sites where goose grazing intensity was highest (measured by dropping counts). Results showed no such relationship, suggesting that farmers’ perception of goose use was not linked to actual goose use, but influenced by sociological factors and individual opinion. These results confirm the need to distribute subsidies/compensation to affected farmers based upon quantifiable measures of goose use rather than complaint levels. To avoid further conflict escalation, it is equally important that managers are aware of farmers´ perceptions and their causes, to effectively target communication about policies and measures to mitigate goose–agriculture problems.     

Goose management schemes to resolve conflicts with agriculture: Theory,practice and effects

In 2012, the four countries hosting the Svalbard population of pink-footed goose Anser brachyrhynchus along its flyway launched an International Species Management Plan for the population. One of the aims was to reduce conflicts between geese and agriculture to an acceptable level. Since 2006, Norway has offered subsidies to farmers that provide refuge areas for geese on their land. We evaluate the mid-Norwegian goose management subsidy scheme, with a view to its adjustment to prevailing ecological and socio-economic parameters. The analysis indicates that the legitimacy of the scheme is highly dependent on transparency of knowledge management and accountability of management scheme to the farming community. Among farmers, as well as front-line officials, outcomes of prioritisation processes within the scheme are judged unfair when there is an evident mismatch between payments and genuine damage. We suggest how the scheme can be made more fair and responsive to ecological changes, within a framework of adaptive management.     

Suitability of passive sampling for the monitoring of pharmaceuticals in Finnish surface waters

The occurrence of five pharmaceuticals, consisting of four anti-inflammatory and one antiepileptic drug, was studied by passive sampling and grab sampling in northern Lake Päijänne and River Vantaa. The passive sampling was performed by using Chemcatcher® sampler with a SDB-RPS Empore disk as a receiving phase. In Lake Päijänne, the sampling was conducted during summer 2013 at four locations near the discharge point of a wastewater treatment plant and in the years 2013 and 2015 at four locations along River Vantaa. The samples were analyzed by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in the multiple reaction monitoring mode. The concentrations of carbamazepine, diclofenac, ibuprofen, ketoprofen, and naproxen in Lake Päijänne determined by passive sampling ranged between 1.4–2.9 ng L^?1, 15–35 ng L^?1, 13–31 ng L^?1, 16–27 ng L^?1, and 3.3–32 ng L^?1, respectively. Similarly, the results in River Vantaa ranged between 1.2–40 ng L^?1, 15–65 ng L^?1, 13–33 ng L^?1, 16–31 ng L^?1, and 3.3–6.4 ng L^?1. The results suggest that the Chemcatcher passive samplers are suitable for detecting pharmaceuticals in lake and river waters.