A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

Socio-environmental consideration of phosphorus flows in the urban sanitation chain of contrasting cities

Understanding how cities can transform organic waste into a valuable resource is critical to urban sustainability. The capture and recycling of phosphorus (P), and other essential nutrients, from human excreta is particularly important as an alternative organic fertilizer source for agriculture. However, the complex set of socio-environmental factors influencing urban human excreta management is not yet sufficiently integrated into sustainable P research. Here, we synthesize information about the pathways P can take through urban sanitation systems along with barriers and facilitators to P recycling across cities. We examine five case study cities by using a sanitation chains approach: Accra, Ghana; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Beijing, China; Baltimore, USA; and London, England. Our cross-city comparison shows that London and Baltimore recycle a larger percentage of P from human excreta back to agricultural lands than other cities, and that there is a large diversity in socio-environmental factors that affect the patterns of recycling observed across cities. Our research highlights conditions that may be “necessary but not sufficient” for P recycling, including access to capital resources. Path dependencies of large sanitation infrastructure investments in the Global North contrast with rapidly urbanizing cities in the Global South, which present opportunities for alternative sanitation development pathways. Understanding such city-specific social and environmental barriers to P recycling options could help address multiple interacting societal objectives related to sanitation and provide options for satisfying global agricultural nutrient demand.

     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

Development of a Computationally Efficient Full Human Body Finite Element Model

Introduction: A simplified and computationally efficient human body finite element model is presented. The model complements the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) detailed 50th percentile occupant (M50-O) by providing kinematic and kinetic data with a significantly reduced run time using the same body habitus.

Methods: The simplified occupant model (M50-OS) was developed using the same source geometry as the M50-O. Though some meshed components were preserved, the total element count was reduced by remeshing, homogenizing, or in some cases omitting structures that are explicitly contained in the M50-O. Bones are included as rigid bodies, with the exception of the ribs, which are deformable but were remeshed to a coarser element density than the M50-O. Material models for all deformable components were drawn from the biomechanics literature. Kinematic joints were implemented at major articulations (shoulder, elbow, wrist, hip, knee, and ankle) with moment vs. angle relationships from the literature included for the knee and ankle. The brain of the detailed model was inserted within the skull of the simplified model, and kinematics and strain patterns are compared.

Results: The M50-OS model has 11 contacts and 354,000 elements; in contrast, the M50-O model has 447 contacts and 2.2 million elements. The model can be repositioned without requiring simulation. Thirteen validation and robustness simulations were completed. This included denuded rib compression at 7 discrete sites, 5 rigid body impacts, and one sled simulation. Denuded tests showed a good match to the experimental data of force vs. deflection slopes. The frontal rigid chest impact simulation produced a peak force and deflection within the corridor of 4.63 kN and 31.2%, respectively. Similar results vs. experimental data (peak forces of 5.19 and 8.71 kN) were found for an abdominal bar impact and lateral sled test, respectively. A lateral plate impact at 12 m/s exhibited a peak of roughly 20 kN (due to stiff foam used around the shoulder) but a more biofidelic response immediately afterward, plateauing at 9 kN at 12 ms. Results from a frontal sled simulation showed that reaction forces and kinematic trends matched experimental results well. The robustness test demonstrated that peak femur loads were nearly identical to the M50-O model. Use of the detailed model brain within the simplified model demonstrated a paradigm for using the M50-OS to leverage aspects of the M50-O. Strain patterns for the 2 models showed consistent patterns but greater strains in the detailed model, with deviations thought to be the result of slightly different kinematics between models. The M50-OS with the deformable skull and brain exhibited a run time 4.75 faster than the M50-O on the same hardware.

Conclusions: The simplified GHBMC model is intended to complement rather than replace the detailed M50-O model. It exhibited, on average, a 35-fold reduction in run time for a set of rigid impacts. The model can be used in a modular fashion with the M50-O and more broadly can be used as a platform for parametric studies or studies focused on specific body regions.     

New Methodology for an Expert-Designed Map From International Classification of Diseases (ICD) to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 3+ Severity Injury

Objective: There has been a longstanding desire for a map to convert International Classification of Diseases (ICD) injury codes to Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) codes to reflect the severity of those diagnoses. The Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (AAAM) was tasked by European Union representatives to create a categorical map classifying diagnoses codes as serious injury (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] 3+), minor/moderate injury (AIS 1/2), or indeterminate. This study's objective was to map injury-related ICD-9-CM (clinical modification) and ICD-10-CM codes to these severity categories.

Methods: Approximately 19,000 ICD codes were mapped, including injuries from the following categories: amputations, blood vessel injury, burns, crushing injury, dislocations/sprains/strains, foreign body, fractures, internal organ, nerve/spinal cord injury, intracranial, laceration, open wounds, and superficial injury/contusion. Two parallel activities were completed to create the maps: (1) An in-person expert panel and (2) an electronic survey. The panel consisted of expert users of AIS and ICD from North America, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The panel met in person for 5 days, with follow-up virtual meetings to create and revise the maps. Additional qualitative data were documented to resolve potential discrepancies in mapping. The electronic survey was completed by 95 injury coding professionals from North America, Spain, Australia, and New Zealand over 12 weeks. ICD-to-AIS maps were created for: ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM. Both maps indicated whether the corresponding AIS 2005/Update 2008 severity score for each ICD code was AIS 3+, 1/2, or indeterminable. Though some ICD codes could be mapped to multiple AIS codes, the maximum severity of all potentially mapped injuries determined the final severity categorization.

Results: The in-person panel consisted of 13 experts, with 11 Certified AIS specialists (CAISS) with a median of 8 years and an average of 15 years of coding experience. Consensus was reached for AIS severity categorization for all injury-related ICD codes. There were 95 survey respondents, with a median of 8 years of injury coding experience. Approximately 15 survey responses were collected per ICD code. Results from the 2 activities were compared, and any discrepancies were resolved using additional qualitative and quantitative data from the in-person panel and survey results, respectively.

Conclusions: Robust maps of ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-CM injury codes to AIS severity categories (3+ versus <3) were successfully created from an in-person panel discussion and electronic survey. These maps provide a link between the common ICD diagnostic lexicons and the AIS severity coding system and are of value to injury researchers, public health scientists, and epidemiologists using large databases without available AIS coding.     

The moderating role of calling in the work–family interface: Buffering and substitution effects on employee satisfaction

This research seeks for improved understanding regarding the interaction of meaningful work and the work–family interface. Existing literature suggests that experiencing a sense of calling toward work makes the work domain particularly salient to employees compared to other life domains. In this article, we draw on this idea, rooted in identity theory, to hypothesize that a sense of calling toward work diminishes the effects of work–family conflict and work–family enrichment on employee's job and life satisfaction. We test these ideas in two studies. First, we surveyed an alumni sample of 598 employees from various jobs, industries, and job levels. Then, in a constructive replication, we surveyed 327 employees using a time-lagged design. Calling was found to significantly buffer the effect of work–family conflict on job satisfaction in Study 2, but not Study 1. Calling did not buffer the effect of conflict on life satisfaction in either study. However, both studies demonstrated that calling attenuated (substituted for) the effect of work–family enrichment on job satisfaction. Study 1 supported the idea that calling attenuates the effect of enrichment on life satisfaction; however, this interactive effect was reversed in Study 2, contrary to expectations. We discuss implications for theory and practice related to callings and career choices, as well as for the role of calling and work identity in the work–family interface.     

The roles of nuclear energy,renewable energy,and economic growth in the abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in the G7 countries

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - In the current century, the G7 countries have attached more importance to energy security, and have prioritized low-carbon sources which have...     

PM10 concentration levels at an urban and background site in Cyprus: The impact of urban sources and dust storms

Air quality in Cyprus is influenced by both local and transported pollution, including desert dust storms. We examined PM₁₀ concentration data collected in Nicosia (urban representative) from April 1, 1993, through December 11, 2008, and in Ayia Marina (rural background representative) from January 1, 1999, through December 31, 2008. Measurements were conducted using a Tapered Element Oscillating Micro-balance (TEOM). PM₁₀ concentrations, meteorological records, and satellite data were used to identify dust storm days. We investigated long-term trends using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) after controlling for day of week, month, temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. In Nicosia, annual PM₁₀ concentrations ranged from 50.4 to 63.8 μg/m³ and exceeded the EU annual standard limit enacted in 2005 of 40 μg/m³ every year. A large, statistically significant impact of urban sources (defined as the difference between urban and background levels) was seen in Nicosia over the period 2000–2008, and was highest during traffic hours, weekdays, cold months, and low wind conditions. Our estimate of the mean (standard error) contribution of urban sources to the daily ambient PM₁₀ was 24.0 (0.4) μg/m³. The study of yearly trends showed that PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia decreased from 59.4 μg/m³ in 1993 to 49.0 μg/m³ in 2008, probably in part as a result of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus. In Ayia Marina, annual concentrations ranged from 27.3 to 35.6 μg/m³, and no obvious time trends were observed. The levels measured at the Cyprus background site are comparable to background concentrations reported in other Eastern Mediterranean countries. Average daily PM₁₀ concentrations during desert dust storms were around 100 μg/m³ since 2000 and much higher in earlier years. Despite the large impact of dust storms and their increasing frequency over time, dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the exceedances of the daily PM₁₀ limit.

ImplicationsThis paper examines PM₁₀ concentrations in Nicosia, Cyprus, from 1993 to 2008. The decrease in PM₁₀ levels in Nicosia suggests that the implementation of traffic emission control policies in Cyprus has been effective. However, particle levels still exceeded the European Union annual standard, and dust storms were responsible for a small fraction of the daily PM₁₀ limit exceedances. Other natural particles that are not assessed in this study, such as resuspended soil and sea salt, may be responsible in part for the high particle levels.     

Implications of Spatial Data Variations for Protected Areas Management: An Example from East Africa

Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies have become an important tool for visualizing conservation management and developing solutions to problems associated with conservation. When multiple organizations separately develop spatial data representations of protected areas, implicit error arises due to variation between data sets. We used boundary data produced by three conservation organizations (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, World Resource Institute, and Uganda Wildlife Authority), for seven Ugandan parks, to study variation in the size represented and the location of boundaries. We found variation in the extent of overlapping total area encompassed by the three data sources, ranging from miniscule (0.4 %) differences to quite large ones (9.0 %). To underscore how protected area boundary discrepancies may have implications to protected area management, we used a landcover classification, defining crop, shrub, forest, savanna, and grassland. The total area in the different landcover classes varied most in smaller protected areas (those less than 329 km²), with forest and cropland area estimates varying up to 65 %. The discrepancies introduced by boundary errors could, in this hypothetical case, generate erroneous findings and could have a significant impact on conservation, such as local-scale management for encroachment and larger-scale assessments of deforestation.