Forecasting volatility of carbon under EU ETS: a multi-phase study

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - Carbon management is a strategic priority and organizations need to forecast carbon for that. We aim to find out the best ARIMA-GARCH model for...     

Ground-level ozone in the Pearl River Delta region: Analysis of data from a recently established regional air quality monitoring network

The ambient air quality monitoring data of 2006 and 2007 from a recently established Pearl River Delta (PRD) regional air quality monitoring network are analyzed to investigate the characteristics of ground-level ozone in the region. Four sites covering urban, suburban, rural and coastal areas are selected as representatives for detailed analysis in this paper. The results show that there are distinct seasonal and diurnal cycles in ground-level ozone across the PRD region. Low ozone concentrations are generally observed in summer, while high O₃ levels are typically found in autumn. The O₃ diurnal variations in the urban areas are larger than those at the rural sites. The O₃ concentrations showed no statistically significant difference between weekend and weekdays in contrast to the findings in many other urban areas in the world. The average ozone concentrations are lower in urban areas compared to the sites outside urban centers. Back trajectories are used to show the major air-mass transport patterns and to examine the changes in ozone from the respective upwind sites to a site in the center of the PRD (Wanqingsha). The results show higher average ozone concentrations at the upwind sites in the continental and coastal air masses, but higher 1 h-max O₃ concentrations (by 8–16 ppbv) at the center PRD site under each of air-mass category, suggesting that the ozone pollution in the PRD region exhibits both regional and super-regional characteristics.     

Comparison of PM2.5 carbon measurement methods in Hong Kong, China

Samples from Hong Kong, China, were analyzed for organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), and total carbon (TC) by three thermal protocols (low-temperature IMPROVE and high-temperature STN and NIOSH) and two optical monitoring methods: reflectance and transmittance. Good agreement (+/-10%) for TC among the three protocols was observed for sample loadings of 1-55 microg m(-3). The two protocols using a reflectance pyrolysis correction showed best agreement for EC, with <20% differences found for approximately 80% of the samples. Hong Kong has a large diesel fleet, and for some heavily loaded samples the light transmittance was too low for quantitative detection, resulting in large uncertainties in the OC/EC split based on transmittance. Hong Kong experienced OC levels similar to those at US sites, but has much higher EC concentrations. OC/EC ratios range from 2 to 5 at two US sites and from 0.2 to 1.2 at three Hong Kong sites.     

Mobility of dimethoate residues from spring broccoli field

Dimethoate [O, O-dimethyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl-methyl) phosphorodithioate] is a broad-spectrum systemic insecticide currently used worldwide and on many vegetables in Kentucky. Dimethoate is a hydrophilic compound (log KOW = 0.7) and has the potential of offsite movement from the application site into runoff and infiltration water. The dissipation patterns of dimethoate residues were studied on spring broccoli leaves and heads under field conditions. Following foliar application of Dimethoate 4E on broccoli foliage at the rate of 0.47 L acre(-1), dimethoate residues were monitored in soil, runoff water collected down the land slope, and in infiltration water collected from the vadose zone. The study was conducted on a Lowell silty loam soil (pH 6.9) planted with broccoli under three soil management practices: (i) soil mixed with municipal sewage sludge, (ii) soil mixed with yard waste compost, and (iii) no-mulch rototilled bare soil. The main objective of this investigation was to study the effect of mixing native soil with municipal sewage sludge or yard waste compost, having considerable amounts of organic matter, on off-site movement of dimethoate residues into runoff and infiltration water following spring rainfall. The initial deposits of dimethoate were 6.2 and 21.4 micro g g(-1) on broccoli heads and leaves, respectively. These residues dissipated rapidly and fell below the maximum residue limit of 2 micro g g(-1) on the heads and leaves after 10 and 14 d, respectively, with half-lives of 5.7 d on broccoli heads and 3.9 d on the leaves. Dimethoate residues detected in top 15 cm of soil (due to droplet drift and wash off residues from broccoli foliage) one day (d) following spraying, were 30.5 ng g(-1) dry soil in the sewage sludge treatment, and 46.1 and 134.5 ng g(-1) dry soil in the yard waste and no mulch treatments, respectively. Water infiltration was greater from yard waste compost treatment than from no mulch treatment, however concentrations of dimethoate in the vadose zone of the three soil treatments did not differ.     

Characterization of hydrocarbons, halocarbons and carbonyls in the atmosphere of Hong Kong

Ambient air quality measurements of 156 species including 39 alkanes, 32 alkenes, 2 alkynes, 24 aromatic hydrocarbons, 43 halocarbons and 16 carbonyls, were carried out for 120 air samples collected at two sampling stations (CW and TW) in 2001 throughout Hong Kong. Spatial variations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the atmosphere were investigated. Levels of most alkanes and alkenes at TW site were higher than that at the CW site, while the BTEX concentrations at the two sites were close. The BTEX ratios at CW and TW were 1.6:10.1:1.0:1.6 and 2.1:10.8:1.0:2.0, respectively. For major halogenated hydrocarbons, the mean concentrations of chloromethane, CFCs 12 and 22 did not show spatial variations at the two sites. However, site-specific differences were observed for trichloroethene and tetrachloroethene. Furthermore, there were no significant differences for carbonyls such as formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone between the two sites. The levels of selected hydrocarbons in winter were 1-5 times that in summer. There were no common seasonal trends for carbonyls in Hong Kong. The ambient level of formaldehyde, the most abundant carbonyl, was higher in summer. However, levels of acetaldehyde, acetone and benzaldehyde in winter were 1.6-3.8 times that in summer. The levels of CFCs 11 and 12, and chloromethane in summer were higher than that in winter. Strong correlation of most hydrocarbons with propene and n-butane suggested that the primary contributors of hydrocarbons were vehicular emissions in Hong Kong. In addition, gasoline evaporation, use of solvents, leakage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas leakage and other industrial emissions, and even biogenic emissions affected the ambient levels of hydrocarbons. The sources of halocarbons were mainly materials used in industrial processes and as solvents. Correlation analysis suggested that photochemical reactions made significant contributions to the ambient levels of carbonyls in summer whereas in winter motor vehicle emissions would be the major sources of the carbonyls. The photochemical reactivity of selected VOCs was estimated in this study. The largest contributors to ozone formation were formaldehyde, toluene, propene, m,p-xylene, acetaldehyde, 1-butene/i-butene, isoprene and n-butane, suggesting that motor vehicles, gasoline evaporation, use of solvents, leakage of LPG, photochemical processes and biogenic emission are sources in the production of ozone. On the other hand, VOCs from vehicles and gasoline evaporation were predominant with respect to reactions with OH radical.     

Mobility of dimethoate residues from spring broccoli field

Dimethoate [O, O-dimethyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl-methyl) phosphorodithioate] is a broad-spectrum systemic insecticide currently used worldwide and on many vegetables in Kentucky. Dimethoate is a hydrophilic compound (log K_OW = 0.7) and has the potential of offsite movement from the application site into runoff and infiltration water. The dissipation patterns of dimethoate residues were studied on spring broccoli leaves and heads under field conditions. Following foliar application of Dimethoate 4E on broccoli foliage at the rate of 0.47 L acre^?1, dimethoate residues were monitored in soil, runoff water collected down the land slope, and in infiltration water collected from the vadose zone. The study was conducted on a Lowell silty loam soil (pH 6.9) planted with broccoli under three soil management practices: (i) soil mixed with municipal sewage sludge, (ii) soil mixed with yard waste compost, and (iii) no-mulch rototilled bare soil. The main objective of this investigation was to study the effect of mixing native soil with municipal sewage sludge or yard waste compost, having considerable amounts of organic matter, on off-site movement of dimethoate residues into runoff and infiltration water following spring rainfall. The initial deposits of dimethoate were 6.2 and 21.4 μ g g^?1 on broccoli heads and leaves, respectively. These residues dissipated rapidly and fell below the maximum residue limit of 2 μ g g^?1 on the heads and leaves after 10 and 14 d, respectively, with half-lives of 5.7 d on broccoli heads and 3.9 d on the leaves. Dimethoate residues detected in top 15 cm of soil (due to droplet drift and wash off residues from broccoli foliage) one day (d) following spraying, were 30.5 ng g^?1 dry soil in the sewage sludge treatment, and 46.1 and 134.5 ng g^?1 dry soil in the yard waste and no mulch treatments, respectively. Water infiltration was greater from yard waste compost treatment than from no mulch treatment, however concentrations of dimethoate in the vadose zone of the three soil treatments did not differ.     

Emissions of gas- and particle-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Shing Mun Tunnel,Hong Kong

Real-world vehicle emission factors for seventeen gas and particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were quantified in the Shing Mun Tunnel, Hong Kong during summer and winter 2003. Naphthalene, acenaphthylene, and acenaphthene were the most abundant gas PAHs while fluoranthene and pyrene were the most abundant in the particle phase. Most (98%) of the gas PAHs consisted of two- and three-aromatic rings whereas most of the particle-phase PAHs were in four- (～60%) and five-ring (～17%) for fresh exhaust emissions. Average emission factors for the gas- and particle PAHs were 950–2564 μg veh^?1 km^?1 and 22–354 μg veh^?1 km^?1, respectively. Good correlations were found between diesel markers (fluoranthene and pyrene; 0.85) and gasoline markers (benzo[ghi]perylene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene; 0.96). Higher PAH emission factors were associated with a higher fraction of diesel-fueled vehicles (DV) passing through the tunnel. Separate emission factors were determined from diesel and non-diesel exhaust by the regression intercept method. The average PAH emission factor (i.e., sum of gas and particle phases) from DV (3085 ± 1058 μg veh^?1 km^?1) was ～5 times higher than that from non-diesel-fueled vehicles (NDV, 566 ± 428 μg veh^?1 km^?1). Ratios of DV to NDV emission factors were high for diesel markers (>24); and low for gasoline markers (<0.4).     

A preliminary investigation of persistent organic pollutants in ambient air in Hong Kong

Air samples were collected for characterisation of PCDD/Fs and other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as aldrin, alpha-HCH, beta-HCH, delta-HCH, gamma-HCH, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDT, o,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDE, o,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDD, dieldrin, endrin, endosulfan I and II, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide and hexachlorobenzene during the winter of 2000/2001 at the weather station of the Hong Kong Observatory at Tai Mo Shan (TMS), which is the highest point (approximately 957 m) in Hong Kong, besides the routine monitoring of PCDD/Fs and 200 other toxic air pollutants (TAPs) at two urban TAPs stations at Tsuen Wan and Central & Western. Concentrations of the pollutants detected at TMS station were evaluated and compared to those recorded at the urban stations. Though pesticides including alpha-HCH, hexachlorobenzene, DDT, DDE, heptachlor, and endosulfan I were detected, these pesticides were found at relatively low concentrations of about 0.02-0.23 ng/m3 and should not have any significant health effects. Concentrations of some of the monitored POPs were found to be higher whilst most of the monitored TAPs were at comparable levels to those measured at the urban stations during the same period. According to the Stockholm Convention on POPs (May 2001), the 12 chemicals labelled by the United Nations as the most dangerous are: aldrin, chlordane, DDT, dieldrin, endrin, heptachlor, mirex, toxaphene, hexachlorobenzene, PCBs and dibenzo-p-dioxins/dibenzofurans (PCDDs)/(PCDFs). Given that there has not been any large scale use of organo-chlorine pesticides recorded since the decline of local farming activities in recent years, the results of the present study again show that pesticides and POPs such as PCDDs/PCDFs are ubiquitous environmental contaminants present in the atmosphere of Hong Kong. The findings also indicate that organo-chlorine pesticides and PCDDs/PCDFs are among the most prevalent chlorinated semi-volatile pollutants present in Hong Kong. Results obtained in the present study suggest that selected pesticides may be used as tracers for transport of pollutants for regional air quality study.     

Source apportionment of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons in Hong Kong: application of a principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores (PCA/APCS) receptor model

Receptor-oriented source apportionment models are often used to identify sources of ambient air pollutants and to estimate source contributions to air pollutant concentrations. In this study, a PCA/APCS model was applied to the data on non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) measured from January to December 2001 at two sampling sites: Tsuen Wan (TW) and Central & Western (CW) Toxic Air Pollutants Monitoring Stations in Hong Kong. This multivariate method enables the identification of major air pollution sources along with the quantitative apportionment of each source to pollutant species. The PCA analysis identified four major pollution sources at TW site and five major sources at CW site. The extracted pollution sources included vehicular internal engine combustion with unburned fuel emissions, use of solvent particularly paints, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or natural gas leakage, and industrial, commercial and domestic sources such as solvents, decoration, fuel combustion, chemical factories and power plants. The results of APCS receptor model indicated that 39% and 48% of the total NMHCs mass concentrations measured at CW and TW were originated from vehicle emissions, respectively. 32% and 36.4% of the total NMHCs were emitted from the use of solvent and 11% and 19.4% were apportioned to the LPG or natural gas leakage, respectively. 5.2% and 9% of the total NMHCs mass concentrations were attributed to other industrial, commercial and domestic sources, respectively. It was also found that vehicle emissions and LPG or natural gas leakage were the main sources of C(3)-C(5) alkanes and C(3)-C(5) alkenes while aromatics were predominantly released from paints. Comparison of source contributions to ambient NMHCs at the two sites indicated that the contribution of LPG or natural gas at CW site was almost twice that at TW site. High correlation coefficients (R(2) > 0.8) between the measured and predicted values suggested that the PCA/APCS model was applicable for estimation of sources of NMHCs in ambient air.