Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability

This paper shows the strong relation between the factors that lead to the resource curse (RC) and factors that lead to a decline of genuine savings (GS). There is substantial empirical evidence that economies that rely predominantly on their natural resources are also characterized by slower economic growth. This so‐called RC is commonly traced back to the fact that natural resources' generate rents that are independent of a country's economic performance, which can lead to suboptimal reinvestments of this consumed natural capital. We argue that the factors responsible for the RC also have a negative effect on GS, a concept that measures “weak” sustainable development by considering reinvestment of natural capital rents in physical and human capital. We discuss whether the RC hampers possibilities for resource abundant countries to obtain sufficiently high rates of GS, and find indeed many reasons why resource‐dependent countries have problems achieving positive GS rates. We survey both areas of research, emphasizing the influence of the exogenous and endogenous determinants of economic growth, which are usually used to theoretically and empirically explain the RC on the three different forms of capital considered by GS. We specify why most countries suffering from the RC have negative GS rates and explain in detail where the linkages are. This overview could help with potential advancements in the explanation of GS through the inclusion of RC effects.     

Radioactivity in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is, like the Mediterranean, a marginal sea, which with the Black Sea, were marine environments contaminated from the Chernobyl accident.

Radiocaesium and plutonium isotopes were studied in water, sediment and macroalgae in the Baltic Sea since 1982. the inventory of ¹³⁷Cs in the Baltic increased from 0.65 PBq to 5.85 PBq following the Chernobyl accident. the corresponding increase for ^{239 + 240}Pu was less significant and yielded 1.5 TBq to a total value of 16.5 TBq.

For plutonium, 98% is trapped in the sediment and the net-exchange of this element through the Baltic straits is very small (1 GBq/year), while for radiocaesium, 45% is in the water phase and there is a net-loss of 60 000 GBq annually into the adjacent water (Kattegatt).     

Evidence for bismuth-207 in global fallout

Samples of lichen, moss, soil and air collected since 1961 in Greenland, Svalbard, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Sweden and Denmark have been remeasured for γ-emitting radionuclides by Ge(Li) spectroscopy. The samples have shown the presence of ²⁰⁷Bi (physical half-life 38 years), a nuclide which has not been reported earlier in world-wide fallout. The concentrations of ²⁰⁷Bi have been compared with those of ⁶⁰Co, ¹²⁵Sb, and ¹³⁷Cs. From this comparison the production of ²⁰⁷Bi is estimated at 1 PBq. It is assumed that the ²⁰⁷Bi is created in thermonuclear tested explosions in general and that in particular the 55Mt detonation of 30 October 1961 at Novaya Zemlya may have produced this activation product.     

Using digital image projections to visualize forest landscape changes due to management activities and forest growth

A pedagogic problem in forestry and landscape management is to visualize future landscape effects of forest growth and current management activities in the forest. This paper presents a method for forecasting digital image projections of forest landscape dynamics. Static nonlinear regression functions estimate the digital numbers in a Landsat Thematic Mapper image. Regressors used are forest stand variables. By estimating the future forest stand data, based on intermediate treatment and growth, future satellite digital images are created. In a case study example, the future landscape of a forest block in the province of Västernorrland, Sweden, is projected to demonstrate the application of this visualization technique.     

Multi-elemental EDXRF mapping of polluted soil from former horticultural land

The distribution of major and trace elements was systematically investigated by use of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF) on a former horticultural soil. The purpose of the study was to combine mapping of soil element concentration levels with multivariate statistics for characterisation of soil metal pollution in relation to previous and present land use. A 1-ha study site was chosen from a former horticulture where a previous preliminary survey indicated increased concentration levels of toxic elements. The soil was sampled from the top 20 cm of the soil surface in a 10 x 10-m grid-like pattern covering the 1-ha study area. In addition, three soil profiles were studied. The elemental composition of the soil samples was investigated by EDXRF while the composition of aqueous soil extracts was determined by total reflection X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (TXRF). Based on mapping and multivariate statistically analysis of the data obtained by EDXRF, most elements were found in almost constant concentration levels in the top soil throughout the investigated site. However, the contents of the toxic elements Zn, Cu, As, and Pb were found to vary significantly within the area. Hence, the samples with high accumulations of As also contained relatively high amounts of Zn, Cu, and Pb, which indicates that toxic-element-containing pesticides have been applied to the soil surface in the area of the former green houses at the study site. The Pb/As mass ratio in the soil indicates that PbHAsO3 was the preferential lead arsenate used for pest management at the investigated site, while Cu as Bordeaux liquid (CuSO4) and Zn were applied to minimize the leaf damaging effect from the former compounds. Calculations indicated that As annually was applied to the soil in the former greenhouses in doses up to 4 kg As/ha while Pb had been annually applied in doses up to 12 kg Pb/ha. The enrichment of Zn, Cu, As and Pb was greatest in the top 20 cm of the soil and no anthropogenic enrichment of these elements occurred below a depth of 50 cm, indicating that the toxic elements are rather immobile in this soil. The results of this investigation suggest that EDXRF used in combination with multivariate statistics is a strong tool for multi-element mapping of elemental contents, sources and mobility in the terrestrial environment.     

Design and evaluation of an inlet conditioner to dry particles for real-time particle sizers

Real-time particle sizers provide rapid information about atmospheric particles, particularly peak exposures, which may be important in the development of adverse health outcomes. However, these instruments are subject to erroneous readings in high-humidity environments when compared with measurements from filter-based, federal reference method (FRM) samplers. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the ability of three inlet conditioners to dry aerosol prior to entering a real-time particle sizer for measuring coarse aerosols (Model 3321 Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, APS) under simulated highly humid conditions. Two 30 day field studies in Birmingham, AL, USA were conducted to compare the response of two APSs operated with and without an inlet conditioner to that measured with FRM samplers. In field studies, the correlation of PM(10-2.5) derived from the APS and that measured with the FRM was substantially stronger with an inlet conditioner applied (r2 ranged from 0.91 to 0.99) than with no conditioner (r2 = 0.61). Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the heater and desiccant conditioner to remove particle-borne moisture. In field tests, water was found associated with particles across the sizing range of the APS (0.5 microm to 20 microm) when relative humidity was high in Birmingham. Certain types of inlet conditioners may substantially improve the correlation between particulate mass concentration derived from real-time particle sizers and filter-based samplers in humid conditions.     

Sample based estimation of landscape metrics; accuracy of line intersect sampling for estimating edge density and Shannon’s diversity index

A recent trend is to estimate landscape metrics using sample data and cost-efficiency is one important reason for this development. In this study, line intersect sampling (LIS) was used as an alternative to wall-to-wall mapping for estimating Shannon’s diversity index and edge length and density. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to study the statistical performance of the estimators. All combinations of two sampling designs (random and systematic distribution of transects), four sample sizes, five transect configurations (straight line, L, Y, triangle, and quadrat), two transect orientations (fixed and random), and three configuration lengths were tested, each with a large number of simulations. Reference was 50 photos of size 1 km², already manually delineated in vector format by photo interpreters using GIS environment. The performance was compared by root mean square error (RMSE) and bias. The best combination for all three metrics was found to be the systematic design and as response design the straight line configuration with random orientation of transects, with little difference between the fixed and random orientation of transects. The rate of decrease of RMSE for increasing sample size and line length was studied with a mixed linear model. It was found that the RMSE decreased to a larger degree with the systematic design than the random one, especially with increasing sample size. Due to the nonlinearity in the definition of Shannon diversity estimator its estimator has a small and negative bias, decreasing with sample size and line length. Finally, a time study was conducted, measuring the time for registration of line intersections and their lengths on non-delineated aerial photos. The time study showed that long sampling lines were more cost-efficient than short ones for photo-interpretation.     

Roadside particle number distributions and relationships between number concentrations, meteorology, and traffic along a northern California freeway

Particle number distributions were measured simultaneously upwind and downwind of a suburban-agricultural freeway to determine relationships with traffic and meteorological parameters. Average traffic volumes were 6330 vehicles/hr with 10% heavy-duty vehicles, and volumes were higher in July than November. Most downwind particle number distributions were bimodal, with a primary mode at approximately 10-25 nm, indicating that newly formed particles were sampled. Total downwind 6-237 nm particle number concentrations (Ntot) ranged from 9.3 x 10(3) to 2.5 x 10(5) cm(-3), with higher daily average concentrations in November compared with July. Ntot correlated with wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity. Upwind photochemically initiated nucleation likely led to elevated background nanoparticle concentrations in July, as evidenced by increasing upwind distribution modal diameter with increasing temperature and a strong correlation between upwind Ntot and solar radiation. Also in summer, Ntot showed stronger correlation with heavy-duty vehicle volumes than wind speed, temperature, and relative humidity. These results indicate the importance of measuring background particle size distributions simultaneously with roadside distributions. There may be a minimum vehicle volume from which useful real-world vehicle particle number distributions can be measured at roadside, even when collecting samples within 10 m of the traveled lanes.