Countering resistance to protected‐area extension

The establishment of protected areas is a critical strategy for conserving biodiversity. Key policy directives like the Aichi targets seek to expand protected areas to 17% of Earth's land surface, with calls by some conservation biologists for much more. However, in places such as the United States, Germany, and Australia, attempts to increase protected areas are meeting strong resistance from communities, industry groups, and governments. We examined case studies of such resistance in Victoria, Australia, Bavaria, Germany, and Florida, United States. We considered 4 ways to tackle this problem. First, broaden the case for protected areas beyond nature conservation to include economic, human health, and other benefits, and translate these into a persuasive business case for protected areas. Second, better communicate the conservation values of protected areas. This should include highlighting how many species, communities, and ecosystems have been conserved by protected areas and the counterfactual (i.e., what would have been lost without protected area establishment). Third, consider zoning of activities to ensure the maintenance of effective management. Finally, remind citizens to think about conservation when they vote, including holding politicians accountable for their environmental promises. Without tackling resistance to expanding the protected estate, it will be impossible to reach conservation targets, and this will undermine attempts to stem the global extinction crisis.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

The difficulties of systematic reviews

The need for robust evidence to support conservation actions has driven the adoption of systematic approaches to research synthesis in ecology. However, applying systematic review to complex or open questions remains challenging, and this task is becoming more difficult as the quantity of scientific literature increases. We drew on the science of linguistics for guidance as to why the process of identifying and sorting information during systematic review remains so labor intensive, and to provide potential solutions. Several linguistic properties of peer‐reviewed corpora—including nonrandom selection of review topics, small‐world properties of semantic networks, and spatiotemporal variation in word meaning—greatly increase the effort needed to complete the systematic review process. Conversely, the resolution of these semantic complexities is a common motivation for narrative reviews, but this process is rarely enacted with the rigor applied during linguistic analysis. Therefore, linguistics provides a unifying framework for understanding some key challenges of systematic review and highlights 2 useful directions for future research. First, in cases where semantic complexity generates barriers to synthesis, ecologists should consider drawing on existing methods—such as natural language processing or the construction of research thesauri and ontologies—that provide tools for mapping and resolving that complexity. These tools could help individual researchers classify research material in a more robust manner and provide valuable guidance for future researchers on that topic. Second, a linguistic perspective highlights that scientific writing is a rich resource worthy of detailed study, an observation that can sometimes be lost during the search for data during systematic review or meta‐analysis. For example, mapping semantic networks can reveal redundancy and complementarity among scientific concepts, leading to new insights and research questions. Consequently, wider adoption of linguistic approaches may facilitate improved rigor and richness in research synthesis.     

Managing Stand Structure as Part of Ecologically Sustainable Forest Management in Australian Mountain Ash Forests

Ecologically sustainable management of temperate forests is a complex task that involves balancing potentially conflicting land uses such as wood production and nature conservation. We argue that a variety of strategies implemented at different spatial scales is required for biodiversity conservation in temperate forests where wood production is permitted. This is a form of "risk-spreading;" if one option is ineffective for a given species, it may still be conserved as a result of the implementation of other approaches. At the largest scale, there is a clear need for reserves to protect representative samples of forest ecosystems. Within landscapes broadly designated for timber harvesting, intermediate-scale strategies such as the implementation of networks of streamside reserves and wildlife corridors are important for biodiversity conservation. At smaller spatial scales within harvested areas, critical habitat components for forest-dependent organisms like large old trees and logs must be provided. We focus on the importance of these fine-scale attributes for the conservation of biodiversity within logged forests using the mountain ash (  Eucalyptus regnans) forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria as a case study. Forest managers must develop silvicultural practices that maintain and perpetuate critical stand attributes essential for the conservation of forest-dependent organisms. To this end, a shift is required from the extensive use of clearfelling to the adoption of new silvicultural techniques that maintain more structurally complex multi-aged stands. The maintenance of key structural features should be used as a template to guide harvesting methods to ensure that production forests contribute to biodiversity conservation, not only in mountain ash forests, but also temperate wood production elsewhere around the world.     

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence-based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three-quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one-third of high-impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence-based conservation science.     

Effective monitoring of agriculture

An opinion piece published in Nature proposed a global network for agricultural monitoring [J. Sachs, R. Remans, S. Smukler, L. Winowiecki, S. J. Andelman, K. G. Cassman, D. Castle, R. DeFries, G. Denning, J. Fanzo, L. E. Jackson, R. Leemans, J. Leemans, J. C. Milder, S. Naeem, G. Nziguheba, C. A. Palm, J. P. Reganold, D. D. Richter, S. J. Scherr, J. Sircely, C. Sullivan, T. P. Tomich and P. A. Sanchez, Nature, 2010, 466, 558-560.]. Whilst we agree with Sachs et al. that monitoring of agricultural systems is a critically important activity of global significance, especially given increasing problems with global food security and the potential impacts of agriculture on the environment [J. Cribb, The Coming Famine. The Global Food Crisis and What We Can Do to Avoid It, CSIRO Publishing and University of California Press, Melbourne and Oakland, 2010.], we argue in this paper that their generic, mandated monitoring framework has a high probability of failure or at best will be highly inefficient. We base this conclusion on our recently published examination of the factors influencing the success or failure of monitoring programs worldwide [D. B. Lindenmayer and G. E. Likens, Effective Ecological Monitoring, CSIRO Publishing and Earthscan, Melbourne and London, 2010.]. We briefly outline what we believe are three serious flaws in the monitoring framework proposed by Sachs et al. We then suggest an alternative approach that we argue would be more effective, more efficient, and have a greater chance of successfully addressing key issues in sustainable agriculture.