Analysis of uncertainty consideration in environmental assessment: an empirical study of Canadian EA practice

Identifying and communicating uncertainty is core to effective environmental assessment (EA). This study evaluates the extent to which uncertainties are considered and addressed in Canadian EA practice. We reviewed the environmental protection plans, follow-up programs, and panel reports (where applicable) of 12 EAs between 1995 and 2012. The types of uncertainties and levels of disclosure varied greatly. When uncertainties were acknowledged, practitioners adopted five different approaches to address them. However, uncertainties were never discussed or addressed in depth. We found a lack of suitable terminology and consistency in how uncertainties are disclosed, reflecting the need for explicit guidance, and we present recommendations for improvement. Canadian Environmental Impact Statements are not as transparent with respect to uncertainties as they should be, and uncertainties in EA need to be better considered and communicated.     

Size and spatial structure in deep versus shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian <Emphasis Type="Italic">Eunicella singularis</Emphasis> (Cap de Creus,northwestern Mediterranean Sea)

In the Western Mediterranean Sea, the gorgonian Eunicella singularis (Esper, 1794) is found at high densities on sublittoral bottoms at depths from 10 to 70 m. Shallow colonies have symbiotic zooxanthellae that deeper colonies lack. While knowledge of the ecology of the shallow populations has increased during the last decades, there is almost no information on the ecology of the deep sublittoral populations. In October and November 2004 at Cap de Creus (42°19′12″ N; 03°19′34″ E), an analysis of video transects made by a remotely operated vehicle showed that shallow populations (10–25 m depth) were dominated by small, non-reproductive colonies, while deep sublittoral populations (50–67 m depth) were dominated by medium-sized colonies. Average and maximum colony heights were greater in the deeper populations, with these deeper populations also forming larger patch sizes and more extensive regions of continuous substrate coverage. These results suggest that shallow habitats are suitable for E. singularis, as shown by the high recruitment rate, but perturbations may limit or delay the development of these populations into a mature stage. This contrasts with the deep sublittoral habitats where higher environmental stability may allow the development of mature populations dominated by larger, sexually mature colonies.     

A device for sampling the mud‐water interface in eutrophic lakes and bogs for residue analysis

Abstract

A tubular device has been developed making it possible to obtain layered samples of loosely aggregated, flocculent material from bogs or eutrophic lakes. The samples are up to 50 cm long and 15 cm in diameter. The sampler is free from protuberances and intact, layered samples can be taken. The tubular part of the sampler is about 85 em long, the walls of the lower 25‐cm portion harbouring a pneumatic closing mechanism which is controlled from above the water surface. An extendible handle for manipulating the sampler and for guiding it into place, is fastened to the upper end of the sampling tube. The performance and the operation of the sampler in the field are described.     

Economic Impact of Mass Production of Alternative Low Emission Automotive Power Systems

The study considers a range of possible effects on the transportation industry, satellite industries, the labor market, and the economy which may be anticipated in the event mass production of unconventional low emission automotive propulsion systems should occur, whether as a consequence of federal intervention, or not. A postulated 1 976 Otto Cycle Internal Combustion Engine equipped with a dual catalyst manifold reactor and other “conventional” emission control devices was compared in detail with a Regenerative Free Turbine Engine and a Rankine Cycle Engine, as specified by the contracting agency. Manufacturing costs, operating and ownership costs, consumer demand, inter-industry effects, employment, resource requirements, and international trade implications were analyzed in depth under a number of plausible sets of policy constraints and parametric variations. Principal conclusions are that conversion over a 10 year period is feasible, that manufacturing cost differentials are less critical than fuel consumption and cost differentials, that industry/employment impacts are minor, and that resource/trade effects are dominated by petroleum imports. Implications for federal policy are discussed.     

Fire shapes and the adequacy of fire-spread models

It has been suggested that shapes of burned areas resulting from fires spreading under uniform fuel and meteorological conditions may be described as ellipses, double ellipses, or ovoids. The adequacy of these shapes (together with simulation outputs) as bases for fire spread models was tested by finding the best fits of each shape to maps of experimental fires and comparing the results with fits given by a rectangle (an unlikely fire shape). Each of the models (ellipse, double ellipse, ovoid, simulation model, and even the rectangle) provided adequate approximations to the fire contours used in the tests. The parameter trends found implied that the fires examined tended to become more nearly elliptical in shape and to have higher eccentricity as they grew.     

Laboratory and field evaluation of crystallized DOW 704 oil on the performance of the Well Impactor Ninety-Six fFine particulate matter fractionator

Subsequent to the 1997 promulgation of the Federal Reference Method (FRM) for monitoring fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in ambient air, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) received reports that the DOW 704 diffusion oil used in the method's Well Impactor Ninety-Six (WINS) fractionator would occasionally crystallize during field use, particularly under wintertime conditions. Although the frequency of occurrence on a nationwide basis was low, uncertainties existed as to whether crystallization of the DOW 704 oil may adversely affect a sampling event's data quality. In response to these concerns, EPA and the State of Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection jointly conducted a series of specialized tests to determine whether crystallized oil adversely affected the performance of the WINS fractionator. In the laboratory, an experimental setup used dry ice to artificially induce crystallization of the diffusion oil under controlled conditions. Using primary polystyrene latex calibration aerosols, standard size-selective performance tests of the WINS fractionator showed that neither the position nor the shape of the WINS particle size fractionation curve was substantially influenced by the crystallization of the DOW 704 oil. No large particle bounce from the crystallized impaction surface was observed. During wintertime field tests, crystallization of the DOW 704 oil did not adversely affect measured PM2.5 concentrations. Regression of measurements with crystallized DOW 704 versus liquid dioctyl sebacate (DOS) oil produced slope, intercept, and R2 values of 0.98, 0.1, and 0.997 microg/m3, respectively. Additional field tests validated the use of DOS as an effective impaction substrate. As a result of these laboratory and field tests, DOS oil has been approved by EPA as a substitute for DOW 704 oil. Since the field deployment of DOS oil in 2001, users of this alternative oil have not reported any operational problems associated with its use in the PM2.5 FRM. Limited field evaluation of the BGI very sharp cut cyclone indicates that it provides a viable alternative to the WINS fractionator.     

Organochlorine contaminants in seabird eggs from the Pacific coast of Canada, 1971–1986

Eggs were collected from seven seabird species at colonies on the British Columbia coast from 1983 to 1986 and analyzed for organochlorine contaminants. Total PCB levels (wet weight) were highest in double-crested cormorants (Phalacrocorax auritus) from the Fraser estuary (2.91 mg kg^-1) and the Strait of Georgia (3.79 mg kg^-1). Highest DDE levels were in fork-tailed storm-petrels (Oceanodroma furcata) from the Queen Charlotte Islands (1.68 mg kg^-1). Organochlorine levels were generally lower in eggs from the mid 1980s than in those collected in the early 1970s. Organochlorine levels in Pacific alcids and hydrobatids foraging in offshore locations were compared to those in the same or ecologically similar species from the Canadian Atlantic coast. DDT- and HCH-related compounds were higher in Pacific populations while levels of dieldrin, oxychlordane, and HCB were generally lower. With the exception of -HCH, levels of all measured organochlorines were lower in cormorants breeding in the Fraser River estuary than in cormorants from the St. Lawrence River estuary on the Atlantic coast.     

Olfactory response to mushroom composting emissions as a function of chemical concentration

Odor pollution is a major problem facing mushroom [Agaricus bisporus (Lange) Imbach] compost production. Techniques for quantifying mushroom composting odors are needed to assess the effectiveness of odor control measures. Odor samples were obtained in nalophane bags from 11 mushroom composting sites. Samples were collected 0.2 m downwind from the pre-wetting heaps (aerated or unaerated) of raw composting ingredients (wheat straw, poultry and horse manures, and gypsum) and subsequent Phase I composting windrows or aerated tunnels. The odor concentrations (OCs) of the samples were assessed using serial dilution olfactometry and the chemical composition of the samples was determined using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), both 24 h after sampling. Gas detector tubes were used for on-site measurement of gaseous compounds. Odorants that exceeded their published olfactory detection thresholds by the greatest order of magnitude, in decreasing order, were: H2S, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), butanoic acid, methanethiol, and trimethylamine. Concentrations of NH3 were not significantly correlated with OC, and they were not significantly affected by the use of aeration. Aeration reduced the OC and the combined H2S + DMS concentrations by 87 and 92%, respectively. There was a very close correlation (r = 0.948, P < 0.001) between the OC of bag samples and the combined H2S + DMS concentrations, measured on-site with detector tubes. This relationship was unaffected by the NH3 concentration or the type of compost: aerated or unaerated, pre-wet or Phase I, poultry manure-based or horse and poultry manure-based compost. Prediction of the OC will enable rapid and low-cost identification of odor sources on mushroom composting sites.     

A Bayesian approach for understanding the role of ship speed in whale-ship encounters

Mandatory or voluntary reductions in ship speed are a common management strategy for reducing deleterious encounters between large ships and large whales. This has produced strong resistance from shipping and marine transportation entities, in part because very few studies have empirically demonstrated whether or to what degree ship speed influences ship-whale encounters. Here we present the results of four years of humpback whale sightings made by observers aboard cruise ships in Alaska, representing 380 cruises and 891 ship-whale encounters. Encounters occurred at distances from 21 m to 1000 m (x = 567 m) with 61 encounters (7%) occurring between 200 m and 100 m, and 19 encounters (2%) within 100 m. Encounters were spatially aggregated and highly variable across all ship speeds. Nevertheless a Bayesian change-point model found that the relationship between whale distance and ship speed changed at 11.8 knots (6.1 m/s) with whales encountering ships, on average, 114 m closer when ship speeds were above 11.8 knots. Binning encounter distances by 1-knot speed increments revealed a clear decrease in encounter distance with increasing ship speed over the range of 7-17 knots (3.6-8.7 m/s). Our results are the first to demonstrate that speed influences the encounter distance between large ships and large whales. Assuming that the closer ships come to whales the more likely they are to be struck, our results suggest that reduced ship speed may be an effective management action in reducing the probability of a collision.