A multi-agent simulation model for spatial optimisation of manure allocation

The EU Nitrate Directive has spurred many countries to regulate manure production and manure application. Farmers have three allocation options: spreading manure on their own land, transporting manure to other farmers' land or processing manure. The manure problem can be seen as an allocation problem. To better understand this allocation problem, we have developed the spatial mathematical programming multi-agent simulation (MP-MAS) model. This model has been applied in Flanders, Belgium, a region with a high concentration of livestock. The model evaluates the cost efficiency of policy intervention in the manure market through obliged processing. We propose to further optimise the policy using a regionally differentiated manure pressure indicator, which is directly derived from the dual outcome of the mathematical programme. This indicator increases transparency in the manure and processing market, leading to better decision support about location and type of manure processing.     

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

In this United States-focused analysis we use outputs from two general circulation models (GCMs) driven by different greenhouse gas forcing scenarios as inputs to regional climate and chemical transport models to investigate potential changes in near-term U.S. air quality due to climate change. We conduct multiyear simulations to account for interannual variability and characterize the near-term influence of a changing climate on tropospheric ozone-related health impacts near the year 2030, which is a policy-relevant time frame that is subject to fewer uncertainties than other approaches employed in the literature. We adopt a 2030 emissions inventory that accounts for fully implementing anthropogenic emissions controls required by federal, state, and/or local policies, which is projected to strongly influence future ozone levels. We quantify a comprehensive suite of ozone-related mortality and morbidity impacts including emergency department visits, hospital admissions, acute respiratory symptoms, and lost school days, and estimate the economic value of these impacts. Both GCMs project average daily maximum temperature to increase by 1–4°C and 1–5 ppb increases in daily 8-hr maximum ozone at 2030, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary greatly over space and time. We estimate tens to thousands of additional ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year for these two scenarios and calculate an economic burden of these health outcomes of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).

Implications:?Near-term changes to the climate have the potential to greatly affect ground-level ozone. Using a 2030 emission inventory with regional climate fields downscaled from two general circulation models, we project mean temperature increases of 1 to 4°C and climate-driven mean daily 8-hr maximum ozone increases of 1–5 ppb, though each climate scenario produces ozone levels that vary significantly over space and time. These increased ozone levels are estimated to result in tens to thousands of ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses per year and an economic burden of hundreds of millions to tens of billions of U.S. dollars (2010$).     

Optimization of pulp mill effluent treatment with catalytic adsorbent using orthogonal second-order (Box-Behnken) experimental design

Novel catalytic adsorbent (ruthenium on carbon) was employed for the treatment of pulp mill effluent in the presence of hydrogen peroxide. Mathematical model and optimization of the process regarding the most favorable COD (%), TOC (%) and color (%) removal rates was developed and performed with experimental design taking into account catalytic adsorption process kinetics. As the initial experimental design, 3(3-1) half-fractional factorial design (H-FFD) was accomplished at two levels to study the significance of the main effects, such as catalytic adsorbent (g l(-1)) and hydrogen peroxide (ppm) concentrations using the response surface methodology (RSM). Finally, a four factor-three coded level central composite design (CCD) with 28 runs was performed in order to fit a second-order polynomial model. Validation of the model was accomplished by different criteria including coefficient of determination and the corresponding analysis of variance. The achieved removal rates for TOC (up to 75%), COD (up to 73%) and color (up to 68%) were observed for the defined optimal conditions: 1g l(-1) of ruthenium on carbon, 7 ppm of hydrogen peroxide, pH = 4 and ambient temperature. The proposed method benefited significantly improved TOC, COD and color removal efficiency, regenerability and reusability of the catalytic adsorbent and unaltered initial pH of an effluent in comparison to traditional adsorption or oxidation processes.     

Behaviour of horses and cattle at two stocking densities in a coastal salt marsh

Livestock grazing has been practiced in salt marshes in the Wadden Sea area since 600 B.C. Currently livestock grazing is also applied for conservation management. However, effects of such grazing management on salt marshes are likely to vary depending on the species of livestock and stocking density due to differences in the behaviour of the animals. Yet, little is known about the behaviour of different livestock species and stocking densities grazing in salt marshes. We studied the grazing behaviour of horses and cattle by focal observation in an experiment with four different grazing treatments on a coastal salt marsh. In all treatments we recorded diet choice, movement and grazing activity, and spatial distribution. Livestock species shared an overlap in diet choice. Yet, horses more often foraged on the short grass Puccinellia maritima, while the cattle diet contained a higher amount of Aster tripolium. Horses travelled longer distances per day and spent more time grazing than cattle. Spatial distribution of cattle was significantly clustered, while horses showed a random distribution utilizing the whole area. Animal behaviour differs between livestock species and stocking densities with respect to diet choice, activity and spatial distribution.     

Measuring sedimentation in tidal marshes: a review on methods and their applicability in biogeomorphological studies

It is increasingly recognised that interactions between geomorphological and biotic processes control the functioning of many ecosystem types as described e.g. by the ecological theory of ecosystem engineering. Consequently, the need for specific bio-geomorphological research methods is growing recently. Much research on bio-geomorphological processes is done in coastal marshes. These areas provide clear examples of ecosystem engineering as well as other bio-geomorphological processes: Marsh vegetation slows down tidal currents and hence stimulates the process of sedimentation, while vice versa, the sedimentation controls ecological processes like vegetation succession. This review is meant to give insights in the various available methods to measure sedimentation, with special attention to their suitability to quantify bio-geomorphological interactions. The choice of method used to measure sedimentation is important to obtain the correct parameters to understand the biogeomorphology of tidal salt marshes. This review, therefore, aims to be a tool for decision making regarding the processes to be measured and the methods to be used. We, subdivide the methods into those measuring suspended sediment concentration (A), sediment deposition (B), accretion (C) and surface-elevation change (D). With this review, we would like to further encourage interdisciplinary studies in the fields of ecology and geomorphology.     

Assessing the local economic impacts of land protection

Land protection, whether public or private, is often controversial at the local level because residents worry about lost economic activity. We used panel data and a quasi-experimental impact-evaluation approach to determine how key economic indicators were related to the percentage of land protected. Specifically, we estimated the impacts of public and private land protection based on local area employment and housing permits data from 5 periods spanning 1990–2015 for all major towns and cities in New England. To generate rigorous impact estimates, we modeled economic outcomes as a function of the percentage of land protected in the prior period, conditional on town fixed effects, metro-region trends, and controls for period and neighboring protection. Contrary to narratives that conservation depresses economic growth, land protection was associated with a modest increase in the number of people employed and in the labor force and did not affect new housing permits, population, or median income. Public and private protection led to different patterns of positive employment impacts at distances close to and far from cities, indicating the importance of investing in both types of land protection to increase local opportunities. The greatest magnitude of employment impacts was due to protection in more rural areas, where opportunities for both visitation and amenity-related economic growth may be greatest. Overall, we provide novel evidence that land protection can be compatible with local economic growth and illustrate a method that can be broadly applied to assess the net economic impacts of protection.     

The Four Cs of disaster partnering: communication,cooperation, coordination and collaboration

Public, nonprofit and private organisations respond to large‐scale disasters domestically and overseas. Critics of these assistance efforts, as well as those involved, often cite poor interorganisational partnering as an obstacle to successful disaster response. Observers frequently call for ‘more’ and ‘better’ partnering. We found important qualitative distinctions existed within partnering behaviours. We identified four different types of interorganisational partnering activities often referred to interchangeably: communication, cooperation, coordination and collaboration—the Four Cs. We derived definitions of the Four Cs from the partnering literature. We then tested them in a case study of the response to the 2010 Haiti earthquake. We suggest that the Four Cs are distinct activities, that organisations are typically strong or weak in one or more for various reasons, and that the four terms represent a continuum of increased interorganisational embeddedness in partnering activities.