Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and developed uses may shift as landowners re-evaluate relative net benefits from land use alternatives. This study examines the effects of various land demand and supply factors on the determination of land use patterns in the mid-Atlantic region. Driving variables include costs and benefits from various uses, population density, and measures of land quality. Model parameters are estimated using a binomial logit procedure. Results from the study are used to estimate proportions of forest area on a county by county basis. Simulated forest landscapes under hypothetical future conditions are prepared and illustrated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques.     

Policy-relevant nonconvexities in the production of multiple forest benefits

This paper challenges common assumptions about convexity in forest rotation models which optimize timber plus nontimber benefits. If a local optimum occurs earlier than the globally optimal age, policy based on marginal incentives may achieve suboptimal results. Policy-relevant nonconvexities are more likely if (i) nontimber benefits dominate for young stands while the optimal age depends primarily on timber benefits, or (ii) nontimber benefits dominate for mature stands and also determine the optimal age. Nonconvexities may create either temporary or persistent difficulties. Policymakers may improve efficiency by exploiting the relationship between the timber-only optimum and the global optimum.     

Linking stream and landscape trajectories in the southern Appalachians

A proactive sampling strategy was designed and implemented in 2000 to document changes in streams whose catchment land uses were predicted to change over the next two decades due to increased building density. Diatoms, macroinvertebrates, fishes, suspended sediment, dissolved solids, and bed composition were measured at two reference sites and six sites where a socioeconomic model suggested new building construction would influence stream ecosystems in the future; we label these "hazard sites." The six hazard sites were located in catchments with forested and agricultural land use histories. Diatoms were species-poor at reference sites, where riparian forest cover was significantly higher than all other sites. Cluster analysis, Wishart's distance function, non-metric multidimensional scaling, indicator species analysis, and t-tests show that macroinvertebrate assemblages, fish assemblages, in situ physical measures, and catchment land use and land cover were different between streams whose catchments were mostly forested, relative to those with agricultural land use histories and varying levels of current and predicted development. Comparing initial results with other regional studies, we predict homogenization of fauna with increased nutrient inputs and sediment associated with agricultural sites where more intense building activities are occurring. Based on statistical separability of sampled sites, catchment classes were identified and mapped throughout an 8,600 km(2) region in western North Carolina's Blue Ridge physiographic province. The classification is a generalized representation of two ongoing trajectories of land use change that we suggest will support streams with diverging biota and physical conditions over the next two decades.