Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species: The case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.     

Biosecurity threats: the design of surveillance systems,based on power and risk

We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection. We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.     

浅析环境监测QC/QA过程的采样环节

对环境监测布点采样中的QC/QA以及由采样引起的误差来源做了简要分析,并对监测采样过程中QC/QA的操作提出了一些设想。     

False-negative prenatal exclusion of Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome by measurement of fetal platelet count and size

The study of the fetal platelet count and size can, according to the literature, be used for the prenatal diagnosis of the Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS). So far, no affected fetuses have been identified by this method. All pregnancies in which this method had been applied to resulted, as correctly predicted, in the birth of normal children. Here we report on a familial case of WAS where the haematological parameters failed to reveal the affected second child. Hence we assume that the platelet count and size of platelets remain normal in fetuses with WAS to the gestational age of 22 weeks and cannot be used for prenatal diagnosis.     

Prenatal diagnosis and management of anterior abdominal wall defects in the West of Scotland

An attempt was made to identify all the cases of abdominal wall defects occurring in the West of Scotland over a 7-year period to determine the current incidence, prenatal diagnosis, management, and prognosis for fetuses and neonates with abdominal wall defects. Cases were identified because they presented either for prenatal diagnosis, or to the Department of Pathology following termination or spontaneous pregnancy loss, or as neonates to the Neonatal Surgical Department. The incidence of abdominal wall defects was found to be 1 in 2500 births. Exomphalos was diagnosed before birth in 66 per cent of cases, and in 30 per cent of cases it was associated with another major abnormality. There was a 20 per cent intact survival in the cases diagnosed prenatally who had no fetal anomaly and who opted to continue with the pregnancy. Gastroschisis was diagnosed before delivery in 70 per cent of cases, and in the group who continued with the pregnancy there was an intact survival of 77 per cent. Body stalk anomalies were all diagnosed prenatally and terminated. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein was elevated in 89 per cent of the cases with exomphalos and in 100 per cent of the cases with gastroschisis and body stalk anomalies in which it was tested.     

Diaphragmatic hernia presenting in utero as a unilateral hydrothorax

A right-sided diaphragmatic hernia presented as a fetal hydrothorax. The fluid-filled hernial sac enveloped the lung and presumably prevented serious compression effects. The implications of fetal thoracic anomalies are discussed.     

Spatial distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and polybrominated biphenyls in lake trout from the Laurentian Great Lakes

Concentrations of two types of brominated flame-retardants (BFRs); polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) were determined in a single age class of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) collected from the Laurentian Great Lakes in 1997. Mean concentrations of total PBDE were highest in samples from Lake Ontario at 95+/-22 ng/g wet weight (ww) or 434+/-100 ng/g lipid weight (lw) while the lowest concentrations were observed in Lake Erie lake trout (27+/-8.6 ng/g ww, 117+/-37 ng/g lw). In all samples, the predominant PBDE congeners were 2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-47), 2,2',4,4',5-pentabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-99), and 2,2',4,4', 6-pentabromodiphenyl ether (BDE-100), which are the primary components of the commonly used penta-BDE formulation flame retardant. Lake trout collected from Lake Huron had the highest concentrations of PBBs (3.1+/-1.7 ng/g ww, 15+/-8.5 ng/g lw), while the lowest levels were detected in fish from Lake Superior (0.25+/-0.13 ng/g ww, 1.7+/-0.89 ng/g lw). In all lake trout samples, 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexabromobiphenyl (BB-153), a major constituent of the flame-retardant FireMaster BP-6, was the predominant PBB congener.     

Sexual difference in mercury concentrations of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) from Lake Ontario

We determined total mercury (Hg) concentrations in 50 female lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) and 69 male lake trout from Lake Ontario (Ontario, Canada and New York, United States). Results showed that, on average, males were 8% higher in Hg concentration than females in Lake Ontario. We also used bioenergetics modeling to determine whether a sexual difference in gross growth efficiency (GGE) could explain the observed sexual difference in Hg concentrations. According to the bioenergetics modeling results, male GGE was about 3% higher than female GGE, on average. Although the bioenergetics modeling could not explain the higher Hg concentrations exhibited by the males, a sexual difference in GGE remained a plausible explanation for the sexual difference in Hg concentrations of the lake trout. In an earlier study, male lake trout from Lake Ontario were found to be 22% higher in polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentration than females from Lake Ontario. Thus, although males were higher in both Hg and PCB concentrations, the degree of the sexual difference in concentration varied between the two contaminants. Further research on sexual differences in Hg excretion rates and Hg direct uptake rates may be needed to resolve the disparity in results between the two contaminants.     

The Early Miocene Cape Melville Formation fossil assemblage and the evolution of modern Antarctic marine communities

The fossil community from the Early Miocene Cape Melville Formation (King George Island, Antarctica) does not show the archaic retrograde nature of modern Antarctic marine communities, despite evidence, such as the presence of dropstones, diamictites and striated rocks, that it was deposited in a glacial environment. Unlike modern Antarctic settings, and the upper units of the Eocene La Meseta Formation on Seymour Island, Antarctica, which are 10 million years older, the Cape Melville Formation community is not dominated by sessile suspension feeding ophiuroids, crinoids or brachiopods. Instead, it is dominated by infaunal bivalves, with a significant component of decapods, similar to present day South American settings. It is possible that the archaic retrograde structure of the modern community did not fully evolve until relatively recently, maybe due to factors such as further cooling and isolation of the continent leading to glaciations, which resulted in a loss of shallow shelf habitats.     

Prenatal diagnosis of an intra-abdominal sacrococcygeal teratoma

The prenatal diagnosis of a presacral (type IV) sacrococcygeal teratoma (SCT) is described. The initial ultrasound appearance was suggestive of a lower urinary tract obstruction, but further ultrasonic examination and radiological imaging using contrast medium led to the diagnosis of SCT. This is the first prenatal diagnosis of a totally intra-abdominal SCT.