Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands)

Potential loss of life is considered an important indicator of flood risk. We examine the future development of potential loss of life due to flooding for a major flood prone area in The Netherlands. The analysis is based on projections and spatial distribution of population under a high economic growth scenario and a loss of life model. Results show that the projected population growth in flood prone areas is higher than average in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2040. Due to this effect the potential number of fatalities is projected to increase by 68% on average for 10 different flood scenarios, not including impacts from climate change and sea level rise. Just sea level rise of 0.30 m leads to an average 20% increase in the number of fatalities. The combined impact of sea level rise and population growth leads to an estimated doubling in the potential number of fatalities. Taking into account increasing probability of flooding due to sea level rise and extreme river discharges, the expected number of fatalities could quadruple by 2040. The presented results give a conservative and upper bound estimate of the increase of the risk level when no preventive measures are undertaken. It is found that the consideration of the exact spatial distribution of population growth is essential for arriving at reliable estimates of future risk of flooding.     

Human Instability in Flood Flows1

Abstract: Loss of human stability in flood flows and consequent drowning are a high personal hazard. In this paper, we review past experimental work on human instability. The results of new experiments by the Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC) are also reported. These new results show that low depth/high velocity flood waters are more dangerous than suggested based on previous experimental work. It is discussed how human instability can be related to two physical mechanisms: moment instability (toppling) and friction instability (sliding). Comparison of the test results with these physical mechanisms suggests that the occurrence of instability in the tests by FHRC is related to friction instability. This mechanism appears to occur earlier than moment instability for the combination of shallow depth and high flow velocity. Those concerned to identify locations where high flood flows could be a threat to human life need to modify their hazard assessments accordingly.     

An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths

The objective of this paper is to investigate and to improve understanding of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. A standardised method of classifying flood deaths is proposed and the difficulties associated with comparing and assessing existing information on flood deaths are discussed. Thirteen flood cases from Europe and the United States, resulting in 247 flood disaster fatalities, were analysed and taken as indicative of flood disaster deaths. Approximately two-thirds of the deaths occurred through drowning. Thus, a substantial number of flood disaster fatalities are not related to drowning. Furthermore, males are highly vulnerable to dying in floods and unnecessary risk-taking behaviour contributes significantly to flood disaster deaths. Based on these results, recommendations are made to prevent loss of life in floods. To provide a more solid basis for the formulation of prevention strategies, better systematic recording of flood fatalities is suggested, especially those caused by different types of floods in all countries.     

Assessment of dietary intakes of nineteen pesticide residues among five socioeconomic sections of Hyderabad—a total diet study approach

Total diet study approach was used to assess the dietary intakes of pesticide residues among the select population in Hyderabad. When assessed by a food frequency questionnaire, it was found that the food intakes varied among five socioeconomic sections (SES). Therefore, we intended to compare the intakes of pesticide residues through these foods among the five SES. A total of 195 foods from different markets were collected and analyzed for 19 pesticides. The residues were analyzed with a gas chromatograph and were confirmed with mass spectrometry. About 51 % of the samples were detected with one or more residues. Thirteen out of the 19 residues were present in levels above detection limits in various concentrations. The median concentrations of the residues in all the samples tested, ranged from 0.00010 to 0.33 mg/kg. Highest median concentration was for β-HCH in water samples. Exposures to all the residues were below the respective ADIs at both mean and 95th percentile levels of food intakes with highest estimated dietary intakes (EDIs) of β-HCH in both the cases. The EDIs of β-HCH were the highest among all the residues at both the intake levels among all the SES. The EDIs of β-HCH were significantly higher in lower SES than higher SES possibly due to the consumption of rice cooked in water contaminated with β-HCH. EDIs for other residues did not differ significantly among the five SES.     

The safety chain: A delusive concept

Various governments have defined a so-called safety chain to structure their efforts in the field of risk management for low-probability disasters. The safety chain typically consists of the following components: proaction, prevention, preparation, repression. While the terminology suggests that the safety chain should be interpreted a series system, the safety chain more closely resembles a parallel system. This has important implications: the safety chain is not as weak as its weakest link; unreliable links need not always be strengthened as it will often be more efficient to rely on a few layers of protection, or just one. To avoid misguided efforts caused by the confusing terminology ‘safety chain’, we propose the use of the term ‘layers of protection’, as is currently the case in the Dutch flood safety policy. Furthermore, we show that imperfect preparedness for low-probability disasters is often perfectly defensible or rational, given the differences between the cost-effectiveness of investments in prevention and disaster preparedness.