Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

依靠科技进步,促进环保事业深入发展

回顾了从１９７３年至今的２０年中，上海市环保科技工作的成绩：取得了丰硕的科研成果：汇集了雄厚的科技力量：科研装备水平逐步迈向现代化；形成了环保科技信息网络：对外合作取得了显著成绩，进一步明确了环保科技工作的指导思想：以“科学技术是第一生产力”的观点认识环境，管理环境，建设环境；从把上海建成人与自然和谐的国际级城市的高度，发展环保科技工作，贯彻可持续发展的战略于环保科技工作的全过程；以深化改革促进环     

张道口-1井水位观测精度变化分析研究

本文对张道口-1井模拟水位、数字化水位观测精度进行了对比，进一步分析了影响数字化水位观测精度的几个因素，提出了数字化水位在日常观测中应注意的几个问题。     

钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷的精密度偏性试验分析

通过钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷的精密度偏性试验及其结果分析,提出本标准方法用光程10mm比色皿比色测定时,由于测定的灵敏度较低,使总磷低浓度测定的精密度和准确度难于达到标准方法要求;建议钼锑抗分光光度法测定总磷时,最好选用30mm比色皿比色测定.     

催化CODcr快速测法的精密度与准确度实验

化学需氧量标准分析方法测定时间长、操作繁琐。本实验采用CTL—BX3C型便携式COD快速测定仪能在20分钟获得COD数据，同时耗能低、省时省力、减少污染。催化CODcr快速法的精密度与准确度均能达到要求。     

微波消解-分光光度法测定COD的研究

通过试验研究,提出了测定COD的新方法——微波消解-分光光度法。该方法准确度、精密度符合分析要求,与国标中回流法的测定结果没有显著差异。而且采用该方法测定COD可克服回流法、微波消解-滴定法及HACH-COD测定法的操作复杂、耗时长等缺点。     

提高洪水智能预报中洪峰预报精度方法的研究

针对防洪减灾的实际需要,对如何提高智能网络对洪峰的预报精度问题进行了深入系统的研究,提出了峰值放大修正系数和遗传算法优化网络初始权重相结合的改进算法,历史资料的检验结果表明了这些改进策略的有效性和可靠性.     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Experience,but not distance,influences the recruitment precision in the stingless bee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Scaptotrigona mexicana</Emphasis>

Recruitment precision, i.e. the proportion of recruits that reach an advertised food source, is a crucial adaptation of social bees to their environment. Studies with honeybees showed that recruitment precision is not a fixed feature, but it may be enhanced by factors like experience and distance. However, little is known regarding the recruitment precision of stingless bees. Hence, in this study, we examined the effects of experience and spatial distance on the precision of the food communication system of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana. We conducted the experiments by training bees to a three-dimensional artificial patch at several distances from the colony. We recorded the choices of individual recruited foragers, either being newcomers (foragers without experience with the advertised food source) or experienced (foragers that had previously visited the feeder). We found that the average precision of newcomers (95.6 ± 2.61%) was significantly higher than that of experienced bees (80.2 ± 1.12%). While this might seem counter-intuitive on first sight, this “loss” of precision can be explained by the tendency of experienced recruits to explore nearby areas to find new rewarding food sources after they had initially learned the exact location of the food source. Increasing the distance from the colony had no significant effect on the precision of the foraging bees. Thus, our data show that experience, but not the distance of the food source, affected the patch precision of S. mexicana foragers.     

环境保护“十二·五”规划——目标、任务与动力

围绕国家和自治区的总体要求,结合包头市实际,明确了包头市“十二·五”环境保护工作的指导思想、总体目标,以削减总量、改善质量、防范风险为主线,按环境要素提出了“十二·五”环境保护工作的重点任务和动力机制,为科学编制“十二·五”环境保护规划奠定了基础。