洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

The effects of the Fukushima disaster on nuclear energy debates and policies: a two-step comparative examination

Under what conditions do critical events trigger large-scale public discussion and mobilisation, and can these lead to policy change? In a comparative study of nuclear energy policy after the Japanese Fukushima disaster in March 2011, a theory-development approach is adopted, mobilising data collected from national news agencies’ newswires, public surveys, legislation and parliamentary databases, and newspaper editorials in 12 established democracies between March 2011 and March 2013. The analysis suggests two main hypotheses that can guide future research: critical events are more likely to trigger policy change when intense (contentious) mobilisation from policy challengers aligns with the views of the general public, and is backed by major political allies; and critical events are more likely to trigger intense (contentious) mobilisation when policy challengers articulate their opposition around pre-existing policy debates on the issue and resort to pre-existing organisational and mobilisation resources.     

Optical Resilience of the Paraíba do Sul River (Brazil) during a Toxic Spill of a Wood-Pulping Factory: The Cataguazes Accident

This study investigates the inherent optical properties (IOP) of a Brazilian river during a non-natural, anthropogenically mediated, toxic spill of a wood-pulping factory (the ‘Cataguazes accident’). The results indicated an outstanding transformation in the river water chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) pools. For instance, increases in CDOM absorption coefficients, a _CDOM (λ), which were averaged at specific spectral intervals, , ranged from 58-fold at the UV-B and UV-A ranges to 95-fold at the PAR range. As a result, the water color expressed as CDOM absorption at 440 nm, a _CDOM (440), varied from 4.16 to 365.03 m^-1. For S-coefficient, the variations ranged from ∼1.1 to 5.6-fold, respectively, at the 300–650 nm and UV-B range. The variability of S as a proxy of dissolved chromophores was thus clearly influenced by the spectral range used. Optical proportions were also investigated through the use of and S ratios at the UV-B, UV-A, and PAR ranges and, in the case of , also at the NIR range. This approach also showed clear variations between the water samples, likely reflecting changes in the composition of optically active substances in the river system. As a whole, the findings obtained here indicated that both the quantity and quality of the chromophoric material dissolved in the river water were greatly altered by the toxic spill. The changes in the optical properties of the river water, although extreme and likely with no parallel in the literature, were quite rapid as indicated by the optical resilience of the system. Overall, this study indicates that IOP might be thought, and possibly used, as a metric tool for monitoring the state of waters and aquatic ecosystems.     

跨行政区域水污染纠纷的对策探讨——剖析某水域水污染死鱼事故

针对某乡镇企业十分发达地区的跨行政(市县)区域水污染死鱼事故的剖析，本文提出了处理解决跨行政区域水污染纠纷事故的若干对策建议。     

2002年3-6月国内安全事故数据

统计了2002年3-6月国内发生的各种安全事故871起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,矿业事故最多,占61. 8%,平均每天4.5起事故,其次是交通事故(16.3%)、爆炸事故(6.7%)、火灾(6.0%)、其他事故(5.6%)、毒物泄露和中毒(3.7%).871起事故共死亡2 197人,伤3 321人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故53.7%、交通事故28.0%、火灾6.1%、爆炸事故5.9%、其他事故5.1%、泄露中毒1.2%;受伤人数的百分比分别为泄露中毒37.4%、交通事故26.9%、爆炸事故14.2%、矿业事故11.8%、其他事故5.3%、火灾4.4%.     

城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案的决策分析

通过对近年来的城市燃气管道事故抢险统计数据的分析与研究,管道事故抢险方案的选择存在着很大的主观性和片面性.为了克服应急抢修方案的种种局限,笔者应用模糊综合评判方法建立了城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案评价选择模型;考虑可靠性、抢修时间、事故损失、抢险费用、社会影响及政治影响等6类影响因素来评判抢修方案的优劣,可以科学合理地选择最佳的管道事故应急抢修方案,达到经济合理、快速可靠的目的;实例验证,评判模型对城市燃气管道事故抢险具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.     

航班起飞过程的风险识别与控制

飞机起飞阶段是事故多发阶段,为了进行风险识别与控制,设计了定性判别方法和定量计算仿真算法,并以具体飞机坠毁事故为例分析了安全裕度.分别计算了飞机冲出跑道的速度、距离和逃生时间.中断起飞的速度与时间,是火灾发生后的判断关键,也构成了飞机起飞事故的裕度.结果表明,中断起飞的安全裕度比坠毁的大,且关于中断起飞的规定有矛盾之处;用于逃生的90 s规则高于中断起飞的决断速度的限制规定.该分析方法为处理危急时刻的两难决策问题提供了理论指导.     

偏二甲肼燃料库危险性评价方法探讨

从物质危险性、工艺危险性入手,评价偏二甲肼燃料库重大事故可能发生的原因、条件及其危险性等级,通过此评价对航天领域易燃、易爆、有毒危险源的危险性评价方法进行了探讨.     

上海市机动车污染实时排放预警系统设计与应用

研究上海市机动车污染的动态排放测算和网格化动态排放清单构建,在实时的交通数据和交通环境监测数据的基础上,结合交通模型、机动车排放清单模型等业务模型和算法,依托大数据存储、可视化和GIS等技术,开发了上海市机动车污染物实时排放预警系统,实现了上海市全市道路的机动车动态排放测算、交通环境政策实施情景模拟和网格化排放清单,更新频率为每30 min一次,包含PM、NOx、CO、SO2、VOCs等污染物和9种车型。系统建成后直接服务于首届中国国际进口博览会,为大气污染排放实时总量跟踪评估、污染源管控措施分析及监测成因分析等提供了有力的实时数据和技术支撑。