城市电磁辐射污染评价─—功率密度传播模型

通过厦门和漳州两城市电磁辐射测试研究，给出城市电磁辐射功率密度传播模型。提出按传播模型，取少量测试点实测数据，用“三点逐进估算法”计算，得出整个城市人口暴露评价的方法。     

Investigating the effect of geometric dimensions of median traffic barriers on crashes: Crash analysis of interstate roads in Wyoming using actual crash datasets

IntroductionDespite the numerous safety studies done on traffic barriers’ performance assessment, the effect of variables such as traffic barrier’s height has not been identified considering a comprehensive actual crash data analysis. This study seeks to identify the impact of geometric variables (i.e., height, post-spacing, sideslope ratio, and lateral offset) on median traffic barriers’ performance in crashes on interstate roads.MethodGeometric dimensions of over 110 miles median traffic barriers on interstate Wyoming roads were inventoried in a field survey between 2016 and 2018. Then, the traffic barrier data collected was combined with historical crash records, traffic volume data, road geometric characteristics, and weather condition data to provide a comprehensive dataset for the analysis. Finally, an ordered logit model with random-parameters was developed for the severity of traffic barrier crashes. Based on the results, traffic barrier’s height was found to impact crash severity.ResultsCrashes involving cable barriers with a height between 30″ and 42″ were less severe than other traffic barrier types, while concrete barriers with a height shorter than 32″ were more likely involved with severe injury crashes. As another important finding, the post-spacing of 6.1–6.3 ft. was identified as the least severe range in W-beam barriers.Practical applicationsThe results show that using flare barriers should reduce the number of crashes compared to parallel barriers.     

基于GRACE数据的中国水储量变化特征分析

论文以中国2003—2015年GRACE水储量数据、GLDAS-Noah地表蒸散发数据、地面实测降水数据为数据源,基于Theil-Sen Median 趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验法,分析了中国水储量、降水量以及蒸散发量的变化趋势及相关关系,并利用经验正交函数（EOF）分析了中国水储量变化时空分布特征,结果表明：1） 2006年以后中国整体水储量年际变化剧烈,且降水和蒸散发可以识别水储量异常时段内的特征信息;2） 2003—2015年全国各地水储量、降雨量和蒸散发量变化空间分布差异明显;3） 全国共有18.6%的地区气候因素对水储量变化的方差解释量超过50%,主要位于中国东北、东南沿海、四川盆地、青海高原以及新疆西北部地区;4） EOF分解的GRACE水储量各主成分信息可以表征研究时段内中国地区整体和局部的水储量时空变化特征。     

Severity models of cross-median and rollover crashes on rural divided highways in Pennsylvania

Introduction

Crossover and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways can lead to severe injury outcomes. This study estimated severity models of these two crash types. Vehicle, driver, roadway, and median cross-section design data were factors considered in the models. A unique aspect of the data used to estimate the models were the availability of median cross-slope data, which are not commonly included in roadway inventory data files.

Methods

A binary logit model of cross-median crash severity and a multinomial logit model of rollover crash severity were estimated using five years of data from rural divided highways in Pennsylvania.

Results

The highest probability of a fatal or major injury in cross-median and rollover crashes was found to occur in cases when a driver was not wearing a seatbelt. While flatter cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with more severe cross-median crash outcomes, steeper cross-slopes and narrower medians significantly increased rollover crash severity outcomes. The presence of horizontal curves was associated with increased probabilities of high-severity outcomes in a median rollover crash.

Impact on Industry

Modeling results in this study confirmed that cross-median and median rollover crash severity outcomes are associated with median cross-section design characteristics. Based on the estimated models, it appears that flatter and narrower medians lead to more severe injury outcomes in cross-median crashes. Steeper median cross-slopes and narrower medians were associated with higher probabilities of more severe outcomes in median rollover crashes. The results presented in this study suggest that there is a trade-off between median cross-section design and cross-median and rollover crashes in earth-divided, traversable medians on rural divided highways. While the severity models can be included in a framework to develop design guidance in relation to this trade-off, models of crash frequency should also be considered.     

关中地区PM2.5时空演化及人口暴露风险

近年来以细颗粒物PM_2.5为代表的大气污染已给人体健康带来严重风险.基于PM_2.5遥感反演数据和人口格网分布数据,测度关中地区人口暴露于PM_2.5的风险程度,并采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和空间自相关分析等方法,探索2000~2016年关中地区PM_2.5及人口暴露风险的时空演化过程.结果表明：①2006、2007和2013年关中地区污染重且范围广,这3 a在40%以上区域PM_2.5年均质量浓度超过了35 μg·m^-3的限值,2000~2016年关中地区PM_2.5空间分布范围不断扩大,形成了自中部向东北部的连续带状集中分布区;②2000~2016年,关中地区几乎每年都有超过60%的人口暴露在PM_2.5年均35 μg·m^-3质量浓度限值以上,且人口暴露风险不断加剧,尤其是2011年后,人口暴露的高风险区范围持续增加;③2000~2016年关中地区PM_2.5人口暴露风险格局大体相似,较高等级以上风险区主要集中在关中地区中部,东西方向上形成连续的带状分布区,高值区集中在几个主要城市的中心城区,低值区则主要分布在关中地区周边广大区域.     

Nonparametric Ranked-set Sampling Confidence Intervals for Quantiles of a Finite Population

Ranked-set sampling from a finite population is considered in this paper. Three sampling protocols are described, and procedures for constructing nonparametric confidence intervals for a population quantile are developed. Algorithms for computing coverage probabilities for these confidence intervals are presented, and the use of interpolated confidence intervals is recommended as a means to approximately achieve coverage probabilities that cannot be achieved exactly. A simulation study based on finite populations of sizes 20, 30, 40, and 50 shows that the three sampling protocols follow a strict ordering in terms of the average lengths of the confidence intervals they produce. This study also shows that all three ranked-set sampling protocols tend to produce confidence intervals shorter than those produced by simple random sampling, with the difference being substantial for two of the protocols. The interpolated confidence intervals are shown to achieve coverage probabilities quite close to their nominal levels. Rankings done according to a highly correlated concomitant variable are shown to reduce the level of the confidence intervals only minimally. An example to illustrate the construction of confidence intervals according to this methodology is provided.     

城市道路中央隔离设施的交通安全与景观研究

笔者从道路交通事故和景观方面 ,研究道路中央隔离设施的功能与特征。首先 ,利用对某城市道路中央有无隔离带情况下记录的交通事故数据 ,进行交通安全统计比较分析 ;其次 ,分别利用层次分析法和语言分级评价法 ,对城市道路中央双黄线、中央护栏隔离和中央绿化隔离 3种情况的景观进行分析 ;最后 ,通过综合分析给出分析结果 ,即中央绿化隔离、中央栅栏隔离带和双黄线隔离的评价顺序。     

大连市水土流失控制模拟研究

从控制大连市水土流失出发,结合大连市地表总体状况,根据水土流失通用方程,利用拉格朗日中值定理分析原理,模拟计算了土壤有机质含量、地面覆盖类型、地面覆盖率和水土流失控制距离等方面对水土流失造成的影响;分别计算了不同地表条件下控制水土流失的理论经济点和理论敏感点;定量分析了不同地表作用因子对控制水土流失的影响程度.模拟结果表明:对水土流失影响最大的地表作用因子是土壤有机质含量,其次依次为地面覆盖率、地面覆盖类型和水土流失控制距离;控制水土流失最基本的地表条件是,土壤有机质含量不得低于1.78%,地面覆盖率不得低于41%,地面不得裸露,最基本的植被覆盖类型是草地,水土流失控制距离不得低于3　603 m.依据模拟结果,提出了控制大连市水土流失的措施.      

土壤及作物中农药残留量所揭示的问题

1991、1992年在河南、河北等省施用林丹防治小麦害虫地区跟踪监测:林丹在小麦及土壤中的残留量全部符合标准。土壤及小麦中残留量中位数分别为50.8μg/kg和11.9μg/kg.土壤中滴滴涕残留量偏高,是由于防治红蜘蛛时施用三氯杀螨醇,而三氯杀螨醇原药中含有滴滴涕所致。      

Modeling Habitat Suitability for Complex Species Distributions by Environmental-Distance Geometric Mean

This paper presents a new habitat suitability modeling method whose main properties are as follows: (1) It is based on the density of observation points in the environmental space, which enables it to fit complex distributions (e.g. nongaussian, bimodal, asymmetrical, etc.). (2) This density is modeled by computing the geometric mean to all observation points, which we show to be a good trade-off between goodness of fit and prediction power. (3) It does not need any absence information, which is generally difficult to collect and of dubious reliability. (4) The environmental space is represented either by an expert-selection of standardized variables or the axes of a factor analysis [in this paper we used the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA)].We first explain the details of the geometric mean algorithm and then we apply it to the bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) habitat in the Swiss Alps. The results are compared to those obtained by the median algorithm and tested by jack-knife cross-validation. We also discuss other related algorithms (BIOCLIM, HABITAT, and DOMAIN). All these analyses were implemented into and performed with the ecology-oriented GIS software BIOMAPPER 2.0.The results show the geometric mean to perform better than the median algorithm, as it produces a tighter fit to the bimodal distribution of the bearded vulture in the environmental space. However, the median algorithm being quicker, it could be preferred when modeling more usual distribution.