资源可持续利用评价——基于资源福利指数的实证分析

资源可持续利用是可持续发展的核心和重要组成部分,论文将资源可持续利用置于 "自然-经济-社会" 三位一体的复杂系统中进行研究,以资源的综合利用效率为视角,结合人类发展指数(HDI)和生态足迹指数(EFI),提出资源福利指数(RWI),即单位资源投入所产出的福利水平,目的是全面反映在利用资源发展经济的同时反馈给社会的综合效率水平。论文以包括G20 国在内的24 个国家作为研究样本,分析1996-2008 年间各国的HDI、EFI 和RWI的变化情况,以此为依据来评价资源的可持续利用状况,24 个国家资源的可持续利用大致分为三类。第一类,良性发展:RWI增长率>0,社会福利提高,资源消耗减少;第二类,次良性正向发展:RWI增长率>0,社会福利水平和资源消耗都增长,但前者增长的速度高于后者;第三类,次恶性正向发展:RWI增长率<0,社会福利水平和资源消耗都增加,但前者增长的速度低于后者。     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.