船舶排放及不确定性对中国空气质量的影响

船舶排放是我国沿海地区重要的人为排放源,但现有的船舶排放评估研究大多只关注区域尺度的影响分析,而且忽视了排放清单的不确定性,这在一定程度上削弱了评估结果的可靠性.为此,本文利用WRF-SMOKE-CAMQ空气质量模型,定量评估了船舶排放及其不确定性对我国七大沿海港口城市夏季空气质量的影响,结果表明：船舶排放对我国主要沿海港口城市的SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5浓度贡献范围分别为16.5%~62.5%、21.9%~72.9%和5.9%~26.0%,尤其对宁波、青岛和深圳等港口城市空气质量的影响显著,主要是由于港口较高的船舶排放以及气象传输两方面原因造成的;如果考虑船舶排放清单的总量不确定性,船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.0~3.1,2.1~5.5,0.3~0.9μg/m³的波动;考虑船舶排放清单的时空分配不确定性,船舶排放对沿海港口城市夏季SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5的影响分别呈现1.9~15.7,5.1~29.3,0.6~2.5μg/m³的波动.可见,船舶排放清单的不确定性对沿海城市船舶排放贡献影响量化有明显的影响.所以在评估船舶排放对港口城市空气质量的影响时,要考虑船舶排放清单的不确定性,尤其是时空分配的不确定性.而合理的时空分配能够提高船舶排放清单的质量和对沿海空气质量模拟的准确性.     

Will polycentric cities cause more CO2 emissions? A case study of 232 Chinese cities

From 2000 to 2010 China experienced rapid economic development and urbanization. Many cities in economically developed areas have developed from a single-center status to polycentricity. In this study, we used exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to identify the population centers, which identified 232 cities in China as having urban centers. COMP was used to represent urban agglomeration, and POLYD (representing how far is the city's sub-centers to the main center), POLYC (representing the number of a city's centers), and POLYP (representing the population distributed between the main center and the sub-centers) were used to indicate urban polycentricity. Night light data were used to determine the CO₂ emissions from various cities in China. A mixed model was used to study the impact of urban aggregation and polycentric data on the CO₂ emission efficiency in 2000 and 2010. The study found that cities with higher compactness were distributed in coastal areas, and the cities with higher multicentricity were distributed in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong Province. The more compact the city was, the less conducive it was to improving CO₂ emission efficiency. Polycentric development of the city was conducive to improving the CO₂ emission efficiency, but the number of urban centers had no significant relationship with the CO₂ emission efficiency. Our research showed that the compactness and multicentricity of the city had an impact on the CO₂ emission efficiency and provided some planning suggestions for the low carbon development of the city.     

Chemical characteristics of road dust PM2.5 fraction in oasis cities at the margin of Tarim Basin

In order to understand the compositions characteristics of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) fraction in road dust (RD_2.5) of oasis cities on the edge of Tarim Basin, 30 road dust (RD) samples were collected in Kashi, Cele, and Yutian in the spring, 2018, and RD_2.5 was collected using the resuspension approach. Eight water-soluble ions, 39 trace elements and 8 fractions of carbon-containing species in PM_2.5 were analyzed. Ca²⁺ and Ca were the most abundant ions and elements in RD_2.5 (7.1% and 9.5%). Cl^- in RD_2.5 was affected not only by attributed to saline-alkali soils in oasis cities of the Tarim Basin and dust from Taklimakan Desert but also by human activities. Moreover, the organic carbon/elemental carbon (OC/EC) ratio indicated that carbon components in RD_2.5 in Cele town mainly come from fossil fuel combustion, while those in Yutian and Kashi mainly come from biomass combustion. It is noteworthy that high Ca in RD_2.5 was seriously affected by anthropogenic emissions, and high Na and K contents in RD_2.5 could be derived from soil and desert dust. It was estimated that Cd, Tl, Sn and Cr were emitted from anthropogenic emissions using the enrichment factor. The coefficients of divergence (COD) result indicated that the influence of local emission on road dust emission is greater than that of long-distance transmission. This study is the first time to comprehensively analyze the chemical characteristics of road dust in oasis cities, and the results provides the sources of road dust at the margin of Tarim Basin.     

可达性对资源枯竭城市经济转型发展成效的作用机制

对外交通联系是资源枯竭城市转型和可持续发展的主要因素。以我国69座资源枯竭城市为研究对象,使用日常可达性指数表征城市对外交通联系水平,利用工业替代产业产值反映经济转型发展程度,通过面板数据模型和地理探测器等方法分析可达性对城市经济转型发展成效的作用机制,揭示不同可达性水平下资源枯竭城市经济转型规律与特征。研究表明：我国资源枯竭城市可达性整体处于中等水平,可达性水平对资源枯竭城市工业替代产业规模与效率具有积极的正向作用,可达性通过影响民营经济、工业园区经济、固定资产投资和高技术产业等因素间接地推进或阻碍资源枯竭城市经济转型发展。鉴于此,各地结合可达性水平差异,适宜采取不同的转型模式和差别化的扶持政策。     

生态农业发展与小城镇建设

以3家生态村为例说明乡镇企业在生态农业产值中占据主导地位。通过对乡镇企业的经济效益、环境效益和社会效益以及小城镇发展的优越性分析可知，乡镇企业不宜在农村发展，应该在小城镇中发展，农村生态建设要立足农业，通过减少土地的人口承载量，提高劳动生产率和增加农民收入。     

京津冀大气污染传输通道区大气污染时空格局研究

客观理解京津冀大气污染传输通道城市（“2+26”城市）空气污染时空格局对于区域大气污染联合防治具有重要意义.本研究采用遥感数据反演的PM_2.5浓度产品，利用趋势分析法和重心分析法，揭示了京津冀城市大气污染传输通道区2000~2015年大气污染时空格局演化特征.结果表明：（1）区域PM_2.5平均浓度整体呈现出太行山脉区域较低，太行山脉以东较高的格局，城镇地区明显高于周边地区.（2）2000~2015年区域PM_2.5年均浓度总体呈增加趋势，主要表现在2000~2007年，呈显著增加趋势的面积占全区的88.48%，之后呈稳定状态.（3）区域PM_2.5污染重心位于衡水、邢台和德州3市交界处，区域北部大气污染较严重.本研究可为京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治政策制定和措施实施提供参考与支持.     

在可持续发展中推进我国生态型小城镇建设

随着我国城市化的发展,小城镇建设也成了城市化过程中的一个重要环节。建设好小城镇即是走出一条我国农村社会现代化,农村人口城市化的路子[2]。我国小城镇建设的环境问题[3],是缺乏环境规划和环保能力薄弱、生活污染严重、乡镇企业布局分散、村镇建设与周围环境亲和性差。针对目前小城镇建设存在的问题,从社会经济环境可持续发展的战略高度对小城镇的生态建设思路进行了有实际意义的讨论。     

矿产资源型城市工业路径依赖综合诊断方法——基于改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数

将矿产资源和生态环境要素纳入常规的柯布-道格拉斯（C-D）生产函数，构建资源-环境-经济综合诊断方法，并应用于以煤炭经济为主的鄂尔多斯市.结果显示，2001~2015年该市综合产出弹性为0.8158，呈规模报酬递减趋势；全市工业路径依赖于2001~2007年处于综合边际收益（MR_KLME）上升过程，2008~2015年进入MR_KLME下降过程.工业增长的生态环境成本明显升高，对MR_KLME起到显著减降作用，导致MR_KLME曲线拐点较常规C-D函数法提前约2~4a.对此，建议加大生态环境保护与治理力度、实施煤炭资源开发总量和强度“双控”等路径依赖破解措施.该方法可纠正由于未考虑资源和环境效应所产生的诊断偏差，有助于更加合理、准确地诊断特定资源型城市工业发展路径依赖的演化特点，并可据此提出有针对性的破解对策.     

长江中游城市群空间联系研究

基于城市流强度模型和城市间相互作用模型,以长江中游城市群27个地级市为研究对象,分析了城市群内的城市辐射能力及其内在的经济联系。结果表明:(1)长江中游城市群整体集聚和辐射能力较弱,区域内中低级城市流强度的城市占多数;(2)城市群内第二、三产业辐射能力存在较大差异,第二产业呈现出较强的辐射能力,而第三产业辐射能力较弱,并且其空间分布相对较为分散;(3)区域中心城市的核心带动作用总体较弱,辐射范围和辐射强度都有待加强;(4)长江中游城市群内城市间空间联系不够紧密,且联系程度空间差异较大。省际城市之间联系贫乏,城市间尚未形成联系紧密的辐射网络。     

我国城乡环保一体化的制度建构:理念、原则与路径

近年来,我国"城市环境趋向好转,农村环境不断恶化"这种城乡环境二元趋势的凸现,提出了城乡环保一体化的客观要求."城市中心主义"环境法制以及我国农民实质自由的严重匮乏是我国产生城乡环境二元趋势的根本原因.一些地方所采取的仅仅局限于环保领域的城乡环保一体化措施,并不能从根本上扭转城乡环境二元趋势.城乡环保一体化实践需要以更为全面的制度建构为基础.城乡环保一体化的制度建构应树立理性、人本、自由等基本理念,应坚持整体推进、科学建构、多元参与等基本原则.城乡环保一体化的制度建构路径,首先是消除对农民的各种制度性歧视,实现城乡居民的权利平等;其次,在推动地方民主与法治建设,推进司法体制改革、建立司法审查制度的基础上,健全与完善农民权利实现的保障机制,保证农民的各项权利最终成为"可实际行使"的权利.最后,还要建立适应农村环境保护要求的环境法制.