A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Methodological Basis of Ecological Safety Standards for the Technogenic Impact of Mineral Resource Exploitation

A new methodological approach to the development of biological and technological safety standards for the impact of underground mining on the natural biota is proposed.     

Use of USLE/GIS Methodology for Predicting Soil Loss in a Semiarid Agricultural Watershed

The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an erosion model to estimate average soil loss that would generally result from splash, sheet, and rill erosion from agricultural plots. Recently, use of USLE has been extended as a useful tool predicting soil losses and planning control practices in agricultural watersheds by the effective integration of the GIS-based procedures to estimate the factor values in a grid cell basis. This study was performed in the Kazan Watershed located in the central Anatolia, Turkey, to predict soil erosion risk by the USLE/GIS methodology for planning conservation measures in the site. Rain erosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), and cover management factor (C) values of the model were calculated from erosivity map, soil map, and land use map of Turkey, respectively. R values were site-specifically corrected using DEM and climatic data. The topographical and hydrological effects on the soil loss were characterized by LS factor evaluated by the flow accumulation tool using DEM and watershed delineation techniques. From resulting soil loss map of the watershed, the magnitude of the soil erosion was estimated in terms of the different soil units and land uses and the most erosion-prone areas where irreversible soil losses occurred were reasonably located in the Kazan watershed. This could be very useful for deciding restoration practices to control the soil erosion of the sites to be severely influenced.     

基于SVR的长江经济带水环境承载力评价

基于DPSIRM模型构建区域水环境承载力评价指标体系,并基于SVR模型构建了区域水环境承载力评价模型,利用交叉验证法对SVR模型参数进行优化选择,进一步提高模型预测精度.运用该模型研究了长江经济带2009~2018年的水环境承载力演变趋势及空间差异,结果表明：长江经济带水环境承载力等级整体呈现升高趋势,其中上游城市群承载等级由II级（超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）;中游城市群承载等级由II级（超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）;下游长三角区域承载等级由I级（重超载）提升到了IV级（弱可承载）.将评价结果与熵权-TOPSIS法的评价结果相比较,相同率达到91.7%,说明SVR模型评价区域水环境承载力可行,评价结果可靠.以下游区域为例,分别对其6个子系统的承载力进行剖析,并运用单因素轮换OAT法对各子系统内的评价指标进行敏感性分析,便于决策者识别指标敏感性.     

水源水库贫营养好氧反硝化菌群脱氮特性研究

为削减微污染水库中氮素的浓度,通过对西安市李家河水库沉积物进行定向富集驯化,筛选出以Pseudomonas菌为主、具有高效好氧反硝化特性的混合菌群-A1.摇床实验表明,贫营养好氧反硝化菌群A1在15h时硝酸盐氮去除率可达93.39%,硝酸盐氮平均去除速率为0.2073mg/（L·h）;总氮去除率为52.11%,总氮平均去除速率为0.1153mg/（L·h）,无亚硝酸盐积累.氮平衡分析表明,约45%的初始氮被去除转化为气体产物.响应面法（RSM）结果表明,C/N比9.96,温度22.67℃,pH8.01,转速91r/min,溶解氧8.55mg/L是去除总氮（TN）的最优条件.     

Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Network Design for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Exposures to Airborne Contaminants

Existing methods of establishing ambientair quality monitoring networks typically evaluateonly parameters related to ambient concentrations ofthe contaminant(s) of interest such as emissionsource characteristics, atmospheric transport anddispersion, secondary reactions, depositioncharacteristics, and local topography. However,adverse health risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants are a function of the contaminant andthe anatomic and physiologic characteristics of theexposed population. Thus, ambient air qualitymonitoring networks designed for the protection ofpublic health or for epidemiological studiesevaluating adverse health impacts from exposures toambient air contaminants should account for bothcontaminant characteristics and human healthparameters. A methodology has been establishedwhich optimizes ambient air quality monitoringnetworks for assessments of adverse human healthimpacts from exposures to airborne contaminants byincorporating human health risk assessmenttechniques. The use of risk assessment techniquesas the basis for designing ambient air qualitymonitoring networks will help to target limitedfinancial and human resources to evaluate humanhealth risks from exposures to airbornecontaminants.     

跨界河流的水质监测(1)

水质监测是任何水资源管理必不可少的组成部分,水质监测与评价不仅可对水污染问题进行鉴别和评估,而且可以验证污染控制措施是否正确以及污染源是否遵守了相关的环保法规、制度、文章讨论了综合监测系统的对策、网络设计、采样与分析、数据处理与报告,还讨论了必需的科学的组织形式。以4条跨界河流[欧洲的莱茵河(Rhine)和多瑙河(Danube)、南美的拉普拉塔河(La Plata)、东南亚的湄公河(Mekong)]为例阐述了现代意义的监测方法学。对于工业化程度高的流域(如莱茵河和多瑙河),早期预警系统尤为重要。最后探讨了新的性价比好的污染监测方法以及如何避免产生数据很多,但信息量很少的状况。     

Software as a bridge between theory and practice in life cycle assessment

Three mutually dependent elements are required for the application of life cycle assessment: methodology, data and software. Obviously, the design of software is determined by the methodology and the type of data available. Conversely, the development of software dictates the way in which data should be collected and recorded, and improves the theoretical framework, as it forces one to state the principles clearly and unambiguously. The influence of the development of software on both data and methodology is addressed and illustrated by examples, with reference to two key terms: transparency and explicitness. Three types of influence are distinguished: the design of a protocol, the formulation in terms of recipes, and the presentation of data.     

Indicators of sustainable production: framework and methodology

This paper presents a new tool for promoting business sustainability — indicators of sustainable production. It first introduces the concept of sustainable production as defined by the Lowell Center for Sustainable Production, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Indicators of sustainable production are discussed next, including their dimensions and desirable qualities. Based on the Lowell Center Indicator Framework, the authors suggest a new methodology of core and supplemental indicators for raising companies' awareness and measuring their progress toward sustainable production systems. Twenty-two core indicators are proposed and a detailed guidance for their application is included. An eight-step model provides a context for indicator implementation. The paper concludes with a summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology as well as recommendations for testing the indicators.     

Biogenic VOCs emission inventory development of temperate grassland vegetation in Xilin River basin, Inner Mongolia, China

Given the key role of biogenic volatile organic compounds(VOCs) to tropospheric chemistry and regional air quality, it is important to generate accurateVOCs emission inventories. However, only a less fraction of plant species, in temperate grassland of Inner Mongolia, has been characterized by quantitative measurements. A taxonomic methodology, which assigns VOCs measurements to unmeasured species, is an applicable and inexpensive alternation for extensive VOCs emission survey, although data are needed for additional plant families and genera to further validate the taxonomic approach in grassland vegetation. In this experiment, VOCs emission rates of 178 plant species were measured with a portable photoionization detector( PID). The results showed the most of genera and some families have consistent feature of their VOCs emission, especially for isoprene, and provide the basic premise of taxonomic methodology to develop VOCs emission inventories for temperate grassland. Then, the taxonomic methodology was introduced into assigning emission rate to other 96 species, which no measured emission rates available here. A systematical emission inventory of temperate grassland vegetation in Inner Mongolia was provided and further evidence that taxonomy relationship can serve as a useful guide for generalizing the emissions behavior of many, but not all, plant families and genera to grassland vegetation.