Enhanced science–stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science–stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science–stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science–stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.     

Twentieth century droughts and agriculture: Examples from impacts on soybean production in Kentucky,USA

Drought is a significant natural hazard that slowly evolves over time. Because of its character, drought is difficult to monitor and impacts are often poorly documented. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive sectors that are prone to drought. The objective of this research is to assess the impacts of drought on soybean production and revenue in Kentucky. Soybeans are one of Kentucky’s most important commodities. In this study, impacts of 1930–1931, 1940–1942, 1952–1955, 1987–1988, 1999–2000, and 2007 droughts were considered. It was found that over the recent years, up to 56 % of the revenue from soybeans was lost due to drought. During the first half of the twentieth century, revenue loss reached up to 77 %. This research is valuable to the general public as well as planners and policy makers. Proper documentation of impacts of past droughts will help identify drought vulnerabilities and results in better risk management and mitigation.     

The potential implementation of green infrastructure assessment using high-resolution National Agriculture Imagery Program data for sustainable hazard mitigation

As green infrastructure gets its attention in hazard mitigation, it is necessary to improve general understanding on what makes green infrastructure important for hazard and resiliency research. To better understand how green infrastructure fits with more traditional notions of structural and nonstructural mitigation, this study examines the relationship between green infrastructure and ‘structural and nonstructural’ mitigation approaches for hazard mitigation. Also, this study discusses a new measurement of locational aspects and spatial patterns of green infrastructure by utilizing high-resolution data in urban areas, and its potential implementation in hazard mitigation. Compared to previous research using land-use land-cover datasets, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) utilizing National Agriculture Imagery Program dataset provides an ability to capture green infrastructure in greater detail. A visual comparison suggests that the NDVI data are able to capture and identify more types of ‘green’ land uses in Harris County. The total green infrastructure percentages for Harris County, Texas, based on 1-m high resolution were found to be 61.5% of the area, compared to the 51.5% based on the National Land Cover Database. This study provides support for utilizing high-resolution data to establish guidelines for green infrastructure’s spatial characteristics and sustainable hazard mitigation. The outcomes of this study will be helpful in the strategic planning and implementation of green infrastructure in urban areas with hazard issues.     

Cropland changes in times of conflict,reconstruction, and economic development in Iraqi Kurdistan

The destruction of land and forced migration during the Anfal attacks against the Kurds in Iraq in the late 1980s has been reported to have severe consequences for agricultural development. A reconstruction program to aid people in returning to their lands was launched in 1991. To assess the agricultural situation in the Duhok governorate during the pre-Anfal (A), post-Anfal (B), reconstruction (C), and present (D) periods, we mapped winter crops by focusing on inter-annual variability in vegetation greenness, using satellite images. The results indicate a decrease in cultivated area between period A and B, and a small increase between period B and C. This supports reports of a decline in cultivated area related to the Anfal campaign, and indicates increased activity during the reconstruction program. Period D showed a potential recovery with a cropland area similar to period A.     

Production costs and operative margins in electric energy generation from biogas. Full-scale case studies in Italy

The purpose of this study was to observe the economic sustainability of three different biogas full scale plants, fed with different organic matrices: energy crops (EC), manure, agro-industrial (Plants B and C) and organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) (Plant A). The plants were observed for one year and total annual biomass feeding, biomass composition and biomass cost (€ Mg^?1), initial investment cost and plant electric power production were registered. The unit costs of biogas and electric energy (€ Sm^?3_biogas, € kW h^?1_EE) were differently distributed, depending on the type of feed and plant. Plant A showed high management/maintenance cost for OFMSW treatment (0.155 € Sm^?3_biogas, 45% of total cost), Plant B suffered high cost for EC supply (0.130 € Sm^?3_biogas, 49% of total cost) and Plant C showed higher impact on the total costs because of the depreciation charge (0.146 € Sm^?3_biogas, 41% of total costs). The breakeven point for the tariff of electric energy, calculated for the different cases, resulted in the range 120–170 € MW h^?1_EE, depending on fed materials and plant scale. EC had great impact on biomass supply costs and should be reduced, in favor of organic waste and residues; plant scale still heavily influences the production costs. The EU States should drive incentives in dependence of these factors, to further develop this still promising sector.     

Intensive Livestock Farming: Global Trends, Increased Environmental Concerns, and Ethical Solutions

By 2050, global livestock production is expected to double—growing faster than any other agricultural sub-sector—with most of this increase taking place in the developing world. As the United Nation’s four-hundred-page report, Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options, documents, livestock production is now one of three most significant contributors to environmental problems, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions, land degradation, water pollution, and increased health problems. The paper draws on the UN report as well as a flurry of other recently published studies in order to demonstrate the effect of intensive livestock production on global warming and on people’s health. The paper’s goal is to outline the problems caused by intensive livestock farming and analyze a number of possible solutions, including legislative changes and stricter regulations, community mobilizing, and consumers choosing to decrease their demand for animal products.     

Winter bird use of seed-rich habitats in agri-environment schemes

To assess the effectiveness of over-winter seed provision by agri-environment schemes, bird use of patches of seed-bearing crops was compared with that of other seed-rich habitats on 53 farms in eastern Scotland over three winters. Seed-bearing crops were the most frequently selected habitat, and held 28% of birds of the 10 species recorded. Outside schemes, cereal stubble was the most selected habitat and held 44% of birds. For nine species, seed-bearing crops were used by more birds than expected from the area of crop available in at least one winter, and five species were more likely to occur in first-winter patches, reflecting a greater abundance of cereal grain than in second-winter patches. For cereal grain specialists such as buntings, sowing cereal-based crops annually would ensure that grain is available in each winter, whilst either a 1-year or a 2-year crop would be appropriate for finches that favour oilseeds, and species with a more generalist diet.     

Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada

This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields and changes. This is done for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO₂ fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields.     

Assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in intensively managed annual cropping systems at the regional scale

We predicted changes in yields and direct net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from converting conventional to alternative management practices across one of the world's most productive agricultural regions, the Central Valley of California, using the DAYCENT model. Alternative practices included conservation tillage, winter cover cropping, manure application, a 25% reduction in N fertilizer input and combinations of these. Alternative practices were evaluated for all unique combinations of crop rotation, climate, and soil types for the period 1997-2006. The crops included were alfalfa, corn, cotton, melon, safflower, sunflower, tomato, and wheat. Our predictions indicate that, adopting alternative management practices would decrease yields up to 5%. Changes in modeled SOC and net soil GHG fluxes corresponded to values reported in the literature. Average potential reductions of net soil GHG fluxes with alternative practices ranged from −0.7 to −3.3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Sacramento Valley and −0.5 to −2.5 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the San Joaquin Valley. While adopting a single alternative practice led to modest net soil GHG flux reductions (on average −1 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), combining two or more of these practices led to greater decreases in net soil GHG fluxes of up to −3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. At the regional scale, the combination of winter cover cropping with manure application was particularly efficient in reducing GHG emissions. However, GHG mitigation potentials were mostly non-permanent because 60-80% of the decreases in net soil GHG fluxes were attributed to increases in SOC, except for the reduced fertilizer input practice, where reductions were mainly attributed to decreased N₂O emissions. In conclusion, there are long-term GHG mitigation potentials within agriculture, but spatial and temporal aggregation will be necessary to reduce uncertainties around GHG emission reductions and the delivery risk of the associated C credits.     

松嫩平原部分县域重点工业企业发展与污染防治同步策略探讨

县域工业污染防治是工业化、城镇化进程中一个不可忽视的问题。应注重排放COD、烟尘等主要污染物浓度高且量较大的重点行业和企业,根据这些企业的运行规律和当地的气候特点,深入开展污染防治。以松嫩平原北部,有代表性的工业城市所辖县为重点,进行了探讨。